[ExI] 10 Predictions About the Future That Should Scare the Hell Out of You
johnkclark at gmail.com
Mon Jul 18 17:25:41 UTC 2016
On Mon, Jul 18, 2016 at 12:17 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Being of a pessimistic outlook (i.e. a realist)
I don't think a pessimist is inherently more intelligent than a optimist,
although he can write more attention grabbing headlines.
> all ten scenarios seem
> pretty likely to me,
2. People who transfer their minds to computers are actually killing
Some of the worries on the list are genuine ( like "
create their own pandemic
but that one is just silly. We know for a fact that changes in the physical
state of an object can change consciousness and we know for a fact that
consciousness can change the physical state of an object. And we also know
that Evolution can see intelligent behavior but
not consciousness, but we also know for a fact that nevertheless Evolution
managed to produced at least one thing that was conscious and probably many
billions. So it you get the physics right so that intelligent behavior is
produced consciousness will come along for the ride.
> 3. Authoritarianism will make a comeback
We'll know more about that after November 8.
6. The effects of climate change will be irreversible
Who cares? Certainly not me.
> 10. We’ll never make contact with aliens
We won't if we're the first, and that seems increasingly likely to me, and
I think that's optimistic not pessimistic.
If we were to find aliens tomorrow their technology couldn't be enormously
more advanced than our own or we'd have detected them long ago; that
would mean there must be a calamity of some sort that falls on
technological civilizations when they get to about the point we're in right
John K Clark
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