[ExI] Critical take on The Age of Em

[Giulio Prisco]

Re "We shouldn’t let disagreements over the exact probabilities of
different scenarios distract us from exploring many likely scenarios."

Of course, and you have written a great book (I am re-reading it now)
about one possible scenario. I only wish I had the skill to write a
book half as good about my favorite scenario.

On Wed, Jun 8, 2016 at 9:54 PM, Robin D Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:
> On Jun 8, 2016, at 3:22 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>> I like Robin’s book but disagree on one key assumption. Robin thinks
>> that mind uploading is likely to be developed much before sentient AI.
>
> If the future is important enough to make it worth having one hundred books on future scenarios, then it is worth having a book on a scenario with only a 1% chance. We shouldn’t let disagreements over the exact probabilities of different scenarios distract us from exploring many likely scenarios.
>
>> I think the two are likely to develop at comparable paces with strong
>> feedback loops, with advances in one stimulating advances in the other
>> (or roadblocks in one creating roadblocks in the other) and reach
>> operational maturity at more or less the same time near the end of the
>> century, give or take a couple of decades. Robin’s scenario is
>> believable if uploading comes soon and sentient AI never follows, but
>> I think his assumption is wrong. In my favorite scenario, human
>> uploads and AIs co-evolve.
>
> I certainly don’t claim that “sentient AI never follows.”
>
>>
>> On Wed, Jun 8, 2016 at 8:48 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> I didn't read the book. But I know something about it by reading some
>>> discussions about it.
>>>
>>> My main objection is that some WBE would develop a
>>> non-human-brains-based-super-intelligence quite fast. And from there on,
>>> everything would change.
>>>
>>> I don't think however, that just because of that the book isn't very
>>> interesting. I'll read it one day. I would like to see the movie, too!
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Jun 7, 2016 at 9:22 PM, Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> On Jun 7, 2016, at 11:40 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Mostly silly critique by my view.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Seems so.
>>>>
>>>> (A critique, isn't itself above critique.)
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Not sure if anyone has ever claimed otherwise.
>>>>
>>>> This Caplan has no clue.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I wouldn't go that far. I think Bryan rushed to review the book.
>>>>
>>>> Anyhow, good to see Em is getting attention. Anyone here it read it?
>>>>
>>>> Regards,
>>>>
>>>> Dan
>>>>  See my latest Kindle book, "The Late Mr. Gurlitt," at:
>>>> http://mybook.to/Gurlitt
>>>>
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>>>
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>>
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>
> Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu
> Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
> Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
> See my new book: http://ageofem.com
>
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