[ExI] Global catastrophic risk report

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Sun May 1 22:30:11 UTC 2016


On 1 May 2016 at 22:56, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> I guess the 2014 IPCCC is as mainstream as you can go. 2C and 20cm is about
> median of their scenarios:
> https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html
>
>
> If you ask especially the younger set, the consensus will be waaaay more and
> faster change.  So there is an enormous disparity in public perception and
> the scientific community, with the disparity getting dramatically larger as
> you get younger than currently college age.
>
> This is a bit like popular perceptions of risk, where risks commonly
> reported in media (murder, terrorism, exotic diseases) are overestimated by
> many times, while less reported risks (falls, auto accidents, stroke) are
> underestimated. Peope get more worried about being a victim of crime the
> more tv they watch.
>
>

The trouble with averages (of course) is that they are averages.
Climate change will not be neatly evenly spread over the world. Some
areas will see little change, others will be disaster areas.

That doesn't mean that the areas with little change will be
unaffected. There will be a large flow of refugees from affected areas
and any produce / products from those areas will be lost. The chain of
problems will be considerable and start to occur while the 'average'
shows only a small change.

BillK


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