[ExI] Repudiating the national debt

[Dan TheBookMan]

On Wed, May 11, 2016 at 5:28 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wed, May 11, 2016 at 8:01 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>> I think it's silly to pretend they're all the same. The probability that
you'll be
>> dead in 4 years will be greater if Donald Trump is president than if
Hillary Clinton
>>
>> is president, and the probability you'll be poorer will be MUCH greater.
>
> ### This doesn't make sense. An incompetent lying traitor is safer than
> a brash, populist and reasonably successful businessman?
>
> Hey, let's put down some numbers. How likely is a nuclear war if Trump
> is president? How likely if Clinton is president?

Bryan Caplan, in a recent column, offered the following worry:

"My base rate for war between the United States and another major power is
about 2% per presidential term.  For Trump, I'd up the odds to 5% per
term.  Yes, I know by some measures he's less hawkish than his Republican
rivals and Hillary.  But his macho persona and casual remarks seem more
predictive than his public statements."

See http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2016/03/myth_of_the_rat_9.html

I'm not sure where he got the 2% and the 5% from. Let's say Caplan is
correct, that would increase the odds of war with a major power 2.5 times,
quite an increase.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20160511/fab95c87/attachment.html>