[ExI] Repudiating the national debt
danust2012 at gmail.com
Thu May 12 01:28:02 UTC 2016
On Wed, May 11, 2016 at 5:28 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wed, May 11, 2016 at 8:01 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>> I think it's silly to pretend they're all the same. The probability that
>> dead in 4 years will be greater if Donald Trump is president than if
>> is president, and the probability you'll be poorer will be MUCH greater.
> ### This doesn't make sense. An incompetent lying traitor is safer than
> a brash, populist and reasonably successful businessman?
> Hey, let's put down some numbers. How likely is a nuclear war if Trump
> is president? How likely if Clinton is president?
Bryan Caplan, in a recent column, offered the following worry:
"My base rate for war between the United States and another major power is
about 2% per presidential term. For Trump, I'd up the odds to 5% per
term. Yes, I know by some measures he's less hawkish than his Republican
rivals and Hillary. But his macho persona and casual remarks seem more
predictive than his public statements."
I'm not sure where he got the 2% and the 5% from. Let's say Caplan is
correct, that would increase the odds of war with a major power 2.5 times,
quite an increase.
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