[ExI] Drake Equation Musings

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Tue, May 17, 2016 at 6:43 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-05-17 11:01, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
>
>
> On Tue, May 17, 2016 at 4:52 AM, Anders Sandberg < <anders at aleph.se>
> anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
>> On 2016-05-16 04:16, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>>
>>
>> Is the technogenesis likelihood of 10e-15 per solar mass a reasonable
>> estimate?
>>
>>
>> Our view is that is a reasonable estimate.
>>
>
> ### Woohoo! We're the Old Ones!
>
> Where can I read your article?
>
>
> Happy to send it to you when it is presentable. Still rather messy, but we
> will hopefully soon finish it and send it to PNAS.
>

### Are you mentioning there the Shiva-explanation for the empty skies? I
mean the possibility that the physics of our part of the multiverse is such
that technogenesis leads early-on and with a significant probability to the
discovery of a simple method to trigger a false vacuum decay, thus erasing
the civilization and its universe, along with any civilizations that
managed not to become the destroyers of worlds.

The observable world seems to be consistent with such an explanation. The
probabilities surrounding the Shiva explanation are the opposite of the
black-box explanation - it takes only one in any number of budding
civilizations to trigger a superluminal erasure of a universe, before any
of the million civs ever get to see light from their neighbors.

Rafał
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