[ExI] Nate Silver

spike spike66 at att.net
Mon Sep 5 21:16:11 UTC 2016



From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark


>> He has never done a poll in which one candidate faced a looming email dump, nor is he dealing with Friday’s FBI report,


>…The report where the REPUBLICAN FBI director said no crime had occurred?  John K Clark 



Ja, that’s the one.  Note that isn’t what he said.  He said he wasn’t recommending going forward with indictment.   But… there is nothing illegal about senility.


However… after three minutes of pondering Friday’s report, we realize the story just got more complicated rather than simpler.  Reason: the concussion and blood clot Mrs. Clinton cited as perhaps causing memory loss occurred in December 2012.  The security training she would have gotten as a senator (to review the evidence used for deciding on the invasion of Iraq) happened in 2003.  The DoD and State Department have detailed records of security training from 2003, a time when she and the other senators would have no particular special considerations: they would be trained in all those data-handling requirements.


That training, in which the assessments prove the applicant does understand all those markings and requirements happened in 2003, the mishandling of material happened during the span of 2008 and 2012, and the concussion and clot happened in December 2012.  The “123 Deal” memo was written on 28 May 2013, at which time Mrs. Clinton had no government employment and no legal access to the 123 deal, suggesting that anything in that memo had to come from memory, or… somewhere else perhaps.


Regarding Nate Silver, to report that probability to three significant digits is analogous to estimating the mass of a cloud to that level of precision.  The upcoming Assange email dump makes this the most unpredictable and weird campaign in American history.  


John if you want to go with your Russian roulette model, this is one of those cases where you play without knowing how many rounds are in that pistol.


Secure the football. 




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