[ExI] Single Payer Healthcare

Sat Apr 1 00:08:12 UTC 2017

I know better than to argue with you, but I want to note that your have not
presented experimental data but a somewhat cherry-picked observation. Which
at best can be used to develop a hypothesis, and design an experiment, but
not to reach any conclusion.

Using observational data rather than experimental data often leads to
incorrect conclusions, because there are infinite possible correlated
variables at play, and only controlled experiments can separate them. This
is what led to 40 years of questionable nutritional advice regarding fat.
Now thoroughly debunked with experiments, and in my opinion, largely to
blame for the country's deteriorating health.

As Feynman reminds us, the easiest person to full is ourself. Scientists
need to try as hard as possible to disprove their own theories.

Here are some other possible explanations of life expectancy differences:

- Different diets
- Poor that are worse off
- More stressful lives (less safety net)
- Less access to higher education
- Less paid vacation and maternal leave
- Higher homicide rates
- Higher accident rates (we drive more)
- Different racial make ups
- More incarceration
- Subsidized and cheap junk foods
- Opiod over prescription
- Drug war
- Less healthcare as a result of not being single payer

Now given all the possible causes I listed, how do you conclude single
payer is the only or most significant factor in determining life expectancy?

Switzerland has a similar model to the US, how does their life expectancy
compare to the rest of Europe?

While correlations can't prove causation, counter examples can disprove
causal relations. If the Swiss pay less and live longer than other
countries, there might be a flaw in your conclusion.

I agree that the US would likely be better off with single payer, but I
disagree with using your single statistic as the basis of reaching such a
conclusion.

Jason

On Friday, March 31, 2017, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Fri, Mar 31, 2017 at 4:40 PM, Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','danust2012 at gmail.com');>> wrote:
>
> >
>>> >
>>>  Factoid?? We're talking about the results of a experiment that lasted
>>>  
>>> decades involved about a billion people and cost trillions of dollars,
>>>  
>>> and the results are clear as a bell; like it or not single payer
>>>  
>>> countries get more bang for their buck, they live longer and spend
>>>  
>>> less, a lot less. As a libertarian I wish the facts could have produced
>>>  
>>> a different conclusion but reality doesn't give a damn what I prefer.
>>
>>
>> > 
>> Whoa! The strict libertarian position is
>>  [...]
>>
>
> Irrelevant. The USA system does not conform with the 
> strict libertarian position
> 
>
> and n
> either does the single payer system of the 30 countries that beat the hell
> out of the USA system in both cost and quality. However the USA is closer
> to the
> strict libertarian position
>  than the single payer plan. As a libertarian I wish I could say it was
> the other way around but I can not because I value the truth even more than
> I value libertarianism. 
>
> >> 
>>> I don't know which question of yours I've sidestepped,
>>
>>
>> > 
>> Well, I've only posted them twice on March 28, so here goes for a third
>> time (rewording them slightly in hopes this helps you to answer them):
>>
>> 1. What are the historical rates of life expectancy for all nations?
>>
>
> In all the 31 nations I mentioned, including the USA, both the life
> expectancy and the percentage of GNP spent on healthcare have increased,
> some much more than others, and it is by examining those differential
> increases we can learn things.     
>
> 2. Are there any nations with single payer systems that have shorter than
>> the US life expectancy?
>>
>
> I honestly don't know. I would guess the answer is yes but I don't know
> for certain. I'm sure you could find out in a hour or two with a little
> help from Google, I could too but I'm not going to because the answer
> doesn't interest me. If there is such a country you can be certain they
> spend dramatically less on healthcare than the USA, every country does, so
> there would be no surprise and nothing to learn if their citizens have
> shorter lives.  We can learn from the 30 countries that spend less and get
> more not from the countries that spend less and get less.
>
> >
>>> >
>>> but I know of a question of mine that you have sidestepped:  if
>>>  
>>> the 30 single payer countries I mentioned spent twice as much
>>>  
>>> on healthcare as the USA and yet their citizens had shorter
>>>  
>>> lives than the USA would you be complaining about sampling
>>>  
>>> errors and experimental bias?
>>
>>
> > 
>> No, I didn't sidestep your question.
>>
>
> Well it sure seemed that way to me because I looked  and looked  but I
> couldn't find a "yes" or a "no" anywhere.
>
>
>> > 
>> it would be still be the correct thing to ask these questions about the
>> data and not merely accept a single piece of data as the decisive element
>> in our policy choices.
>>
>
> This is not a 
> single piece of data
> !! This is the result of a experiment lasting decades involving a billion
> people and trillions of dollars and no matter how you try to spin it the
> less libertarian side won.  I really and truly wish it had gone the other
> way but unlike Trump I refuse to wage war on reality.
>
> John K Clark 
>
>
>>
>
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