[ExI] The Doomsday Clock

[Adrian Tymes]

On Sat, Jan 28, 2017 at 10:29 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> And if North Korea wants to send a package from Pyongyang to Washington, a
> package containing a H-bomb for example, sticking it on top of a ICBM would
> be one way of delivering it, but there are other ways, like UPS. And unlike
> a ICBM if UPS was used it wouldn't have an obvious return address on it,
> it's just that one day Washington would be there and the next day it
> wouldn't. No warning no nothing, just boom.

Actually, there are nuclear detectors on shipping routes.  It would be
harder to smuggle a nuclear warhead, or the components thereof, by UPS
than to just light off an ICBM.

It's questionable how well a submarine drone that effectively is a
nuclear missile could be stopped, though.  There's a ~20 foot deep
channel in the Potomac that goes all the way up to DC (becoming only
10 feet deep well under minimums safe distance); just pick a stormy
night to foul observation.  It would seem the Coast Guard's
near-complete lack of antisubmarine capability has been pointed out in
recent years (said capability having been retired after the USSR
ceased being) - and these days the Navy's assets are mostly deployed
far from our shores.

Of course, to do this you would need nuclear bomb + submarine drone,
which may not be as difficult as nuclear bomb + rocket but may still
be beyond North Korea's technical capabilities.  (Yes, I am saying
they appear to lack the technical sophistication to build a reliable
unmanned submarine capable of navigating the Potomac River.  Though
perhaps they could buy one.)