[ExI] Interesting statistic

Thu Nov 8 20:47:21 UTC 2018

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of John Clark
Subject: Re: [ExI] Interesting statistic

On Thu, Nov 8, 2018 at 12:30 PM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

>>>…In the senatorial election democrats got 11.8 million more votes than the republicans but the democrats lost at least 2 seats to the republicans and probably 3 or 4.   John K Clark

 >>The voting machines were hacked John.  If we just get rid of those things, all will be well.

>…If we just get rid of our screwy way of electing senators and the Electoral College all will be well. But I don't expect that to happen.  John K Clark 

Ja that would require ¾ of the states to ratify an amendment which would give away political power for at least half of the states.

John I will explain to you what really happened, for even I don’t think this outcome was a result of voting machine hacking, and you know me: I blame every evil on voting machine hacking.

What really happened this time is California Effect.  

In California, we had an incumbent far left senator up for re-election, a ranking member of the party, chair of important stuff and so on, but she is getting old.  If she survives to the end of her term she will be in her 90s, which is getting well on towards geezerhood, even by today’s standards.  In California, the left-leaning mainstream party has become so dominant, the right-leaning party is now just dialing it in, which means they aren’t spending their money on statewide races (and will not again until the state gets into some real budget problems.)  This happens in states with one dominant party, as demonstrated by Alvin Greene, who won a senate primary in South Carolina a few years ago without spending any money, with no campaign events, no advertisement, nothing.

When one party gets way dominant, the inevitable result is that without serious opposition uniting it in common cause, it turns on itself and undergoes fission.  The California dominant party is now in the process of splitting between the far left candidate and the farther left candidate.  

In California, the top two winners of the primaries go against each other.  Both candidates were the same party this time (and likely will be for the foreseeable.)  Some of the fiercest debates in anything are between those of similar positions.  This senate race was the most contentious one I have ever seen in California, with both candidates in the same party.  I was deluged with campaign literature, calls, foot soldiers handing out literature, oy vey.  I had some fun with them however.  Whenever a campaigner called me, I would pretend to be a hardcore communist, play with them a bit, get them to try to convince me their far left or farther left candidate was far enough left for my taste.  It was fun.  I am such a bastard that way.  {8^D

OK, we are part way there.  Stay with me please.

California is the most populous state, and by faaaarrr the richest, individually as well as collectively.  People with buttloads of cash on their hands often turn to politics for a place for their money to go out and play, since they seldom need to worry much over other matters which are more pressing needs so many in other states.  Consequence: toooons of money go into California political races, piles of money.

OK: one dominant party in California.  If one is not that party, there is no reason to use one’s resources on their internal struggles.  I have no particular preference of far left vs farther left.  I couldn’t tell the difference between two.  Plenty of people in California are like-minded: we watched in detached amusement as the far left and farther left pounded the stuffings out of each other with rhetoric and money.  Shrugs.

Meanwhile…

That idle money owned by those who have no particular preference is now freeeee free free, to go to senate races in other states where money is not nearly as plentiful, such as Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota and Arizona.  The idle money from just the non-dominant mainstream party in California alone can easily overpower both mainstream parties combined in all five of those purple states combined, easily, with change left over.  

So… Californians who can’t tell the difference between far left and farther left, or who don’t care who wins between far left and farther left realize that it is only senate seat, and a senate seat in any another state is equal to this one, which already belongs to another party anyway regardless, so… all that idle money goes to support their favored candidate in other states.  

Result: we saw it.

But that’s only part of the story.

In California, the non-dominant party need not have campaign workers go around neighborhoods: no point in it, and they cannot have rallies because it has become too dangerous.  Note what happened when the non-dominant party attempted a rally in San Jose:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/06/03/ugly-bloody-scenes-in-san-jose-as-protesters-attack-trump-supporters-outside-rally/?utm_term=.5cde411672c0

OK, so there is no reason for those parties to spent money in California, no reason to have rallies in California, which frees up more money and volunteer time.  If one works phone banks, it costs exactly the same whether one is calling one’s neighbors in California or is calling any other state, such as Florida, Iowa, North Dakota, Missouri or Arizona (the data all goes to the same satellite.)

Meanwhile, the dominant party’s money and volunteer time in California are not freed up, because so much of the dominant party’s money and time is spent pounding the other faction of its own party, campaigning for its own seat with a fervor never seen when the other party was in futile contention for that seat.  Not only is their money and time not freed up, they need more of it than before (and get way more of it than before (because the rhetoric is hotter (because the positions are more similar (and the stakes are lower.))))

So… the far left California senator beat the farther left California candidate, while the other mainstream party flipped four seats in the senate elsewhere.  I doubt it had anything to do with voting machine hacking, everything to do with the California mainstream party undergoing fission.  But don’t worry, the farther left California party will be back, stronger next time.

spike

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