[ExI] From Arms Race to Joint Venture
pharos at gmail.com
Tue Oct 16 18:49:59 UTC 2018
On Tue, 16 Oct 2018 at 13:30, Zero Powers wrote:
> Though I see no solution to the God-in-a-box problem, there are some steps I think we as a species should take immediately: First and foremost is global collaboration and coordination. Right now we're in a competitive, multi-party arms race. Google, Facebook, Amazon, DARPA and China (just to name a few) are racing to cross the finish line first, realizing (if not publicly admitting) that the first to build a GI will win the world. From that perspective it makes perfect sense to pour all available resources into being first to market with an artificial God. But with stakes this high, we cannot afford a winner-take-all outcome. If there is one winner and 7 billion losers, no one wins.
> The problem of bringing all the players in this space together and convincing them to trust one another enough to freely, openly and fully share their research, resources and trade secrets, is a huge one. Sharing trade secrets with competitors is contrary to human nature. But what's at stake here is not merely trillions of dollars, it's the continued existence and well-being of organic life. We cannot afford to take a partisan approach to this challenge.
As you say, it is a multi-party arms race. The US is terrified that
China will develop AI first. Google wants to lead the corporations.
When they see their existence at stake, they will never combine with
'the enemy' and work together. Humans just don't do that.
The point is that they don't need to create a God-in-a-box. They just
need to create an AI that is sufficiently ahead of the pack that using
it will mean that the others will never catch up.
Exponential growth, remember?
So I expect that there will eventually be one winner. But during the
course of development the AI cannot be shut up in a box. It will need
knowledge of the world, via the internet, in order to develop. Closing
the AI research in a box will slow down development and risk losing
the race. If anyone is going to take big risks to be first, it will be
the Chinese. Danger to people is less of a concern under a
But the AI they create may surprise them and not be the
super-intelligent slave that they would like. :)
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