[ExI] SETI reviews the Drake equation
avant at sollegro.com
Sat Feb 2 08:19:46 UTC 2019
> Our sun is approximately middle-aged and should remain fairly stable
> for about another 5 billion years. So I think we can safely put
> dealing with the problem of the sun dying fairly far down on our
> 'To-Do' list. Our species should change drastically way before then
> and we may not even still be DNA based life forms.
Fair enough. Still it would be pretty sad if we survived for 5 billion
years and then went extinct because we waited until the last minute
and couldn't get our shit together in time. :-P
Plus there are other existential threats capable of affecting our
entire solar system at once. Gamma ray bursts and things of those
For example, according to the below linked article and study, we are
supposedly directly in the path of the relativistic jet of Sagittarius
A* (Sgr A*) our galaxy's super-massive black hole:
Right now everything is copacetic because according to wikipedia, the
last thing Sgr A* ate was G2 a 3 earth-mass gas cloud.
But if it ever gets a hold of something more substantial like a big
star and goes full quasar on us, we are toast.
Incidentally, the sheer improbability that the super-massive black
hole (SMBH) in the center of the galaxy has its rotational axis and
radio jet pointed directly at us while we are in the plane of the
galactic disk is such that if this result is true, then this is the
best evidence yet for the Simulation Argument. It's as if you are
looking off your balcony with a telescope in New York City and see a
cannon on a remote rooftop pointed directly at you. It is disturbing
even if the rifle is unloaded at the time.
And if we do live in a simulation, then an interstellar civilization
would probably be far more entertaining to any Simulators than a
> But I do agree with Drake that there is a plenty of development
> potential within our own goldilocks zone to keep us busy protecting
> earth and expanding into other local space habitats so that humanity
> is not solely based on earth. The risk of asteroid strikes, pandemics,
> etc. needs dealing with first.
Don't get me wrong, I am all for colonizing the solar system and
developing the goldilocks zone. I just don't think it alone is enough.
> Interstellar travel is really expensive unless we discover unlimited
> power resources. Though unlimited resources plus exponential change
> should make far future speculation pretty much an 'anything is
> possible' type discussion. :)
There is no such thing as unlimited resources, which means you have to
constantly move around, exploring, and hunting for new resources.
More information about the extropy-chat