[ExI] SETI reviews the Drake equation

Stuart LaForge avant at sollegro.com
Sat Feb 2 08:19:46 UTC 2019

Quoting BillK:

> Our sun is approximately middle-aged and should remain fairly stable
> for about another 5 billion years. So I think we can safely put
> dealing with the problem of the sun dying fairly far down on our
> 'To-Do' list. Our species should change drastically way before then
> and we may not even still be DNA based life forms.

Fair enough. Still it would be pretty sad if we survived for 5 billion  
years and then went extinct because we waited until the last minute  
and couldn't get our shit together in time. :-P

Plus there are other existential threats capable of affecting our  
entire solar system at once. Gamma ray bursts and things of those  

For example, according to the below linked article and study, we are  
supposedly directly in the path of the relativistic jet of Sagittarius  
A* (Sgr A*) our galaxy's super-massive black hole:


Right now everything is copacetic because according to wikipedia, the  
last thing Sgr A* ate was G2 a 3 earth-mass gas cloud.
But if it ever gets a hold of something more substantial like a big  
star and goes full quasar on us, we are toast.

Incidentally, the sheer improbability that the super-massive black  
hole (SMBH) in the center of the galaxy has its rotational axis and  
radio jet pointed directly at us while we are in the plane of the  
galactic disk is such that if this result is true, then this is the  
best evidence yet for the Simulation Argument. It's as if you are  
looking off your balcony with a telescope in New York City and see a  
cannon on a remote rooftop pointed directly at you. It is disturbing  
even if the rifle is unloaded at the time.

And if we do live in a simulation, then an interstellar civilization  
would probably be far more entertaining to any Simulators than a  
sedentary one.

> But I do agree with Drake that there is a plenty of development
> potential within our own goldilocks zone to keep us busy protecting
> earth and expanding into other local space habitats so that humanity
> is not solely based on earth. The risk of asteroid strikes, pandemics,
> etc. needs dealing with first.

Don't get me wrong, I am all for colonizing the solar system and  
developing the goldilocks zone. I just don't think it alone is enough.

> Interstellar travel is really expensive unless we discover unlimited
> power resources. Though unlimited resources plus exponential change
> should make far future speculation pretty much an 'anything is
> possible' type discussion.  :)

There is no such thing as unlimited resources, which means you have to  
constantly move around, exploring, and hunting for new resources.

Stuart LaForge

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