[ExI] The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis
William Flynn Wallace
foozler83 at gmail.com
Sat Feb 2 21:52:37 UTC 2019
Trivia: the cold weather in the 17th century is said to have affected the
trees from which violins and other instruments were made by Guerneri,
Amati, Stradivarius and others. The wood was more dense and so gives a
different tone (clearly preferred by most musicians) compared to
instruments made later. This may be why no one can duplicate those old
master violins and cellos.
On Sat, Feb 2, 2019 at 1:45 PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> One of the authors of this paper also wrote the one on wars in China
> due to weather fluctuations.
> Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between
> past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal
> mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We
> explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological,
> socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate
> fluctuations from A.D. 1500 to 1800 in Europe. Results show that
> cooling from A.D.
> 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and
> demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth
> Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between
> climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and cli-
> mate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of
> defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemi-
> sphere during the past millennium. Our
> findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and
> climate-driven economic
> downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in pre-
> industrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.
> It is amazing what we have learned about the past.
> From our viewpoint, the problem is that wars in response to bad
> weather for the crops are about as inevitable as water flowing
> Bad weather straight to wars via famine.
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