[ExI] Black Swan event.
William Flynn Wallace
foozler83 at gmail.com
Wed Jun 12 17:30:02 UTC 2019
We need another word. 'Unpredictable' is usually used incorrectly. You can
The 2078 Baseball World Series will be played in Manila and won by the
Tokyo Dragons. A black swan event will occur tomorrow in my back yard,
featuring curious white swans and a lonely iguana.
Point is, you cannot predict certain things *accurately*, rather than not
I suggest 'unknown' bill w
On Wed, Jun 12, 2019 at 8:39 AM BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wed, 12 Jun 2019 at 04:34, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_event
> > The event results may be terrible, but that's not part of the definition.
> > Based on the author's criteria:
> > "The event is a surprise (to the observer).
> > The event has a major effect.
> > After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by
> > hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant
> > data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs.
> > The same is true for the personal perception by individuals."
> > It would be kind of interesting to list events unexpected enough to be
> > called black swan events.
> I don't think you can do that. :)
> Black swan events are rare and thought to be impossible (until they
> actually happen).
> Although, - Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible
> things before breakfast. ― Lewis Carroll
> Perhaps Grey Swan events would cover that situation.
> Nomura's Bilal Hafeez writes, while he would like to be able to
> predict black swans, by definition that is impossible. "However, its
> close cousin the grey swan can be foreseen. These are the unlikely but
> impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case
> and risk scenarios of the analyst community.
> For example, hurricanes are not Black Swan events - they are not
> But an especially severe hurricane that maybe effectively wiped out a
> city would be a Grey Swan.
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