[ExI] next county

Wed Aug 5 20:56:25 UTC 2020

> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] next county

Well Dylan, what would you do?  Maybe we should have done this with the flu.  How do you come up with an equation or something that balances economic loss with loss of life?  How much is a life worth?  Of course if we all stayed indoors no one would die of a lightning strike, eh?    bill w

The uncertainty in the covid death rate is one thing, but the uncertainty in the numbers who caught covid and recovered without incident, or who never knew they had it is even greater.  Along with uncertainty in mortality rate we have still more uncertainty in how much damage this has done to the world economy.

In my opinion, we need to focus on coming up with a realistic model for how much this shutdown is harming people.  I have a tendency to underestimate this for I am a solitary old turd: not really a socialist at all.  I get along fine with people but isolation doesn’t bother me much.  However… I have friends who are going crazy from loneliness.  I have friends whose lives are spinning out of control because their businesses are failing or their jobs are going away and they have no idea what they are going to do or where they will go.

I am retired, so I have it easy.  My bride’s job was declared essential and on she goes.  My son is prospering under remote learning.  So I am a fortunate exception.

But please keep this in mind: the shutdown isn’t an opportunity, it is a crisis.  If businesses die, we die.  It isn’t just in capitalist America, it is everywhere.  It really isn’t an opportunity to transform anything, or if so, the transformer’s fondest wish would be to transform it to back the way it was before they seized the opportunity.  It really is a crisis only.  

spike

On Wed, Aug 5, 2020 at 2:50 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Well, I realize I am not following the reply instructions since I do not agree with John, but I'll mention again that the IFR for CV-19 in general doesn't warrant the amount of economic damage that has been done here, and that the IFR in non-elderly/non-serious preexisting conditions community is extremely low.   I still have seen zero evidence that this is much worse than the flu from a fatality rate standpoint in anyone who is healthy and under 60.

On Wed, Aug 5, 2020 at 3:30 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Please respond to this email if you agree with John:

every epidemiologist and statistician and public health official and the entire scientific community is wrong and the pandemic is really not as bad as they say,  John

bill w

On Wed, Aug 5, 2020 at 6:42 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Mr. Mystery Man Moderator please note, in the following I am just answering questions that the former list moderator has asked me:

On Tue, Aug 4, 2020 at 5:49 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

>  I wouldn’t want to live under the same rules New York needs.  Would you?

Yes if the threat was global not local as it is in a pandemic. If astronomers discovered an asteroid the size of Mount Everest that would slam into the earth in 20 years I wouldn't want each individual city and village and hamlet deciding independently on how to deal with the situation, I'd want a massive coordinated global strategy to figure out how to divert the damn thing and I'd want Intelligent people with lots of executive ability leading the effort. 

>  Besides that, I don’t trust the federal government.  Do you?

No, I most certainly do NOT trust the current federal government of the USA.

> Why?

Ah, well as to that I can't say. I can't say because some people on this list are allowed to get political and spin conspiracy theories like, every epidemiologist and statistician and public health official and the entire scientific community is wrong and the pandemic is really not as bad as they say, and some people are not. The atmosphere around here may change in a month or two after another 100,000 Americans have died of the virus, but currently I'm #1 on the "not" list so I can say no more on that subject.

 John K Clark

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