[ExI] next county

Thu Aug 6 04:35:01 UTC 2020

On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 at 13:59, spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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> > *On Behalf Of *Stathis Papaioannou via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] next county
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> On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 at 06:59, spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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>  >…It really is a crisis only.
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> >…The crisis is because there is a deadly disease around, making people
> reluctant to go about their normal activities. If the government ORDERED
> businesses to stay open under these circumstances there would still be an
> economic crisis…
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> Stathis, I don’t know how it works in Australia, but in the states, there
> is no level of government, federal, state, county, city or neighborhood
> association, which has the authority to order businesses to stay open.
>
Yes, but the point I was making is that EVEN IF it were in the government’s
power to order everyone back to life as usual it would not have the desired
effect if there was a real problem. If the problem were less serious than
has been stated, it would quickly become obvious that the countries where
there were no restrictions were doing better, and everyone would follow.
After all, the immediate reaction of almost everyone on first learning of
the virus, from the officials in Wuhan to Donald Trump, was to ignore it
and hope that it would go away.

That order would be a no-op.
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> >… there would still be an economic crisis and perhaps an even bigger one…
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> A no-op cannot cause a bigger one.
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> >…The experience around the world so far is that the economies of those
> countries which managed to suppress the infection rate best are recovering
> faster.
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> --
>
> Stathis Papaioannou
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> Ja, so we hear.
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> Of course, there is an unstated caveat on the data in at least one
> country, where deaths with covid are being mixed with deaths of covid.  So
> in that one country, the data is suspect.
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> If we argue that China and North Korea managed to stop the virus, that
> still doesn’t help us in the USA, because there is no level of government
> with the level of power those outfits have.  In the states, government
> cannot get that power unless they declare martial law.  This they have not
> done.  I suspect they will never do that in response to a disease.  Martial
> law was not designed for that purpose.
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> If millions were dropping dead with or of covid every day, declaring
> martial law is still is a dubious use of war powers act.
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> That being said, the mortality rate with or of covid in the USA is
> apparently dropping, but as a fun little exercise for internet search
> jockeys, do go into Google or your favorite search engine and see for
> yourself how difficult it is to find a graph of covid deaths per day in the
> USA.
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> It is possible to find individual states which will report fatalities per
> day, but no source wants to collect all of it, combine it and report covid
> fatalities per day in USA on a graph, because it requires combining a bunch
> of datasets of unknown quality, which means a resulting combined dataset of
> unknown quality.  No one wants to put their name or their institution’s
> name on that.  The closest I have found is Our World in Data, which shows a
> graph but carries a caveat:
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> …challenges in the attribution of the cause of death means that the number
> of confirmed deaths may not be an accurate count of the true number of
> deaths from COVID-19.
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> It also puts a logarithmic scale on the vertical which obscures numbers
> and covers uncertainties.
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> Ok, cool we have the terms WITH and OF.  I have heard our CDC saying they
> counted the WITHs together with the OFs.  Last week we heard the director
> of our CDC testify in front of congress that in general the Withs are still
> being counted with the Ofs, and there is an economic incentive to do so.
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> This site introduces a third term FROM.
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> https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/confirmed-covid-19-deaths-total-vs-daily
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> I vaguely interpret FROM is equivalent to OF.  FROM sounds more OFey than
> it does WITHey.
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> They offer that it may not be an accurate count, but there too, the title
> of the graph kinda disagrees with the caveat, for the title of the graph
> introduces yet another term: “due to.”  Their graph title is Daily vs total
> confirmed deaths due to COVID-19.  Then they explain in the subtitle the
> count may not be accurate because of “challenges in the attribution of the
> cause of death.”
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> Well OK.  I agree that it is challenging.  I do genealogy and I study
> causes of death on death certificates.  They don’t always know what slew
> the prole.  In any case, I feel better seeing that the data-jockeys
> acknowledge this is a best guess.
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> In any case, do search around the web, see if you can find a dataset of US
> fatalities per day, either OF, WITH, FROM, DUE TO, VAGUELY RELATED, or
> WAVING ACQUAINTANCES OF SOMEONE WHO HAD Covid-19.  Please share it with me
> if you find it.
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> What I am looking for is a graph that looks like this, but for the USA:
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> Now that I am inquiring, Stathis, how does Australia count fatalities
> with, of, related to (etc) Covid?  Do they have a way to distinguish
> between the WITHs and the OFs?  How?
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> spike
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-- 
Stathis Papaioannou
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