[ExI] Lockdowns

Rafal Smigrodzki rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
Fri Aug 7 04:20:34 UTC 2020

On Tue, Jun 9, 2020 at 3:34 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> " Lockdowns and other distancing measures have had resounding success
> at thwarting the new coronavirus, according to two independently
> conducted studies. One found that stay-at-home orders and policies
> that restrict face-to-face contact were especially effective in 11
> European countries, reducing transmission by 81%. The combination of
> policies aimed at slowing the virus’s spread prevented more than 3
> million deaths from the epidemic’s start to early May. Another study
> that looked at China, the United States and 4 more countries showed
> that across all 6 countries, anti-transmission measures averted
> roughly 500 million infections."
> From Nature
> I would modify the article.  "Prevented" should be "delayed" and
> "averted" should be "temporarily averted" assuming we get neither a
> vaccine nor effective treatments.

### Indeed. We see it perfectly now:

[image: image.png]
After the initial spike which triggered lockdowns the epidemic started to
resolve, in accordance with the R0 created by lockdowns. Then lockdowns
more or less ended and cases spiked (plus there was more testing), in
accordance with the R0 created by a no-lockdown situation. Since the change
in R0 achieved by lockdowns was not permanent, all that the multi trillion
dollar lockdown hysteria achieved was to shift cases between April and July.

By the time a permanent way of changing R0 in the form of a vaccine arrives
the whole thing will be 90% over anyway.

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