[ExI] Bill Gates on Covid: Most US Tests Are ‘Completely Garbage’

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Mon Aug 10 18:08:04 UTC 2020

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat

> UKers, and others, what happens if you do the same calculus with your state or nation?  Henry, please can you do this for your neighborhood (Brazil?) and BillK please?  Have we Italians among us?... spike
> _______________________________________________

This might help -


Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Updated August 5, 2020



Thanks BillK!

Looks like somewhere in the 10% range is fairly typical, some states doing pretty well.

What happens if we take the Johns Hopkins data and repeat with UK?  Can we use about 1000 fatalities /kprole as a baseline there?  If so, I see the Statista site, which I have found very reliable, is saying UK is suffering about 70 fatalities per 100k, so that 7%-ish excess fatalities estimate works there too.


Has anyone asked friends and online acquaintances to estimate the impact of covid on overall fatality rate?  Has anyone gotten a number that looks anything like 6 to 7%?

If I use the Johns Hopkins site and go for total world deaths, and use the 1000 fatalities per kprole estimate, I am getting about 10 covid excess fatalities per 100k population or about a 1% increase.  This number is rising as Brazil is being hammered brutally (and they don't even have an economic incentive to over-report.)

Have your friends estimate that excess rate in Europe, in the US, then the planet please, then report your results.  This should be interesting.


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