[ExI] Dodged the bullet maybe

Keith Henson hkeithhenson at gmail.com
Thu Feb 6 19:39:26 UTC 2020

John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> Because this coronavirus is so new there is a lot of uncertainty about how
bad the pandemic will be, it depends on 2 factors, how deadly it is and how
contagious it is, the shaded region in the plot below shows the error bars.

True.  But case data I am talking about takes those factors into
account, plus the frantic efforts of the Chinese government to reduce
R0 from well over 1 to under 1.

They will have a heck of a time mopping up the remaining cases, but
they might be helped by a new vaccine.


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