[ExI] riots, was: RE: Is a copy of you really you?

[Keith Henson]

Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

On Tue, Jun 2, 2020 at 12:59 AM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> We are a long way from seeing the end of this.  There have been well
> over 100,000 deaths in the US so far.  Around 4% of the LA and Santa
> Clara populations has antibodies.  Assuming 70% for herd immunity, we
> are around 1/17th of the way through this pandemic.  If that's
> accurate and nothing like a vaccine comes along, the US death toll
> will not be much short of 2 million.

### You are off by more than an order of magnitude.

I hope what I posted above is wrong and you are right.  What do you
think is wrong with my analysis?  The range I have seen on herd
immunity is 60 to 80% so I used 70% for analysis.  If you have a
better number for me to use, what is it?

The antibody testing results for the two California locations are
centered around 4%.  I am aware there is some uncertainty in this
number, but if herd immunity takes 70%, then 70/4 is around a factor
of ~17.  That indicates to me that the pandemic has quite a way to go
at least in California.

### We are getting close to herd immunity in many locations,

I am not aware of such locations, not even Sweeden.  Can you point me
to some of them?

### eyeballing the curve we are about 2/3rd of
the way through the pandemic, so the total will be around 150k, maybe up to
200k at the most.

You might look up the curve for Iran which is undergoing a secondary
peak of about the same size as the first one.

As I said, I hope you are right and my rough analysis is wrong.  Of
course, a vaccine would change the picture entirely.

Keith