[ExI] The present and future of AI

[The Avantguardian]

I would say that we are close enough that we need to have a better definition of AGI. For example does a honeybee have "general intelligence"? If so, we are already really close because we can currently compute neural networks with the complexity of a honeybee brain. Assuming neuron number is a correlate of intelligence, it will be about 44 years until Moore's law reaches human brain parity. But we might reach rat or raven parity in about 14 years.

See old thread "Benchmarking the SIngularity" for more info:

 http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/2019-July/097196.html

Stuart LaForge





On Friday, June 12, 2020, 11:48:45 AM PDT, Jason Resch via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: 
I wrote an analysis of the current capabilities of modern AI systems: 
https://alwaysasking.com/when-will-ai-take-over/

I found what some systems are capable of, especially in terms of computational creativity, and general purpose learning algorithms, to be shocking.

For instance, DeepMind has a single AI that has learned to play every Atari game better than any human.  GANs have been made that produce original art pieces and can take a single photo and envision it as a talking head. Google's Duplex can make phone calls and hold conversations so well the person at the other end of the line doesn't realize they're talking to a machine.

I am curious how close members on this list feel we are from achieving AGI. Most estimates seem to put it around 2040 plus or minus 10 years. Is that the general consensus? Could it happen much sooner? Does anyone here believe it will happen much later than that?

Jason