[ExI] Questions about R0 or maybe we'll be OK

[Nacho Martín]

This preprint https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v2
suggests
a very different scenario (R would be higher than estimated, not lower)
based on this change in the premises:

Recently more evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected
individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms.

Results:

Our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City,
China in 2019-2020 reached values as high as 5.20 (95%CrI: 5.04-5.47) and
the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was
associated with a declined R at 0.58 (95%CrI: 0.51-0.64), with the total
number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1905526
(95%CrI: 1350283-2655936) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected
individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5-26.6%). We also found that most recent
crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is
estimated to be 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08-0.17%),
which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated
at 4.19%

On Sun, Mar 15, 2020 at 7:46 AM Stathis Papaioannou via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> On Sun, 15 Mar 2020 at 16:33, spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
>> *Subject:* RE: [ExI] Questions about R0 or maybe we'll be OK
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> >…My own skepticism has been refuted by the actions of our community and
>> school board.  …The social distancing is halting not only covid but also
>> the usual flu and colds which have been going around… spike
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> It isn’t so much we have discovered the technology, but rather we have
>> discovered the motive: disease.  For so long we have been emphasizing mass
>> transit.  But we all know the disadvantages: it forces us into contact with
>> the criminal element without the benefit of our Detroit-manufactured V8
>> suit of armor.
>>
> Your greatest risk in a car is from accidents. The number of people who
> come into emergency departments injured in a car accident is at least one,
> maybe two orders of magnitude greater than those injured due to being
> assaulted on public transport. This is from personal experience working in
> emergency departments: dozens of car accident victims in a year, no public
> transport assault victims at all, no public transport accident victims
> either.
>
> I say this to people who prefer to drive themselves to work or their
> children to school and they get annoyed. They don’t like their preferences
> challenged, especially if they are irrational.
>
>> Perhaps for some time we have had the technology to press towards less
>> transit rather than mass transit.  Let’s ponder the possibilities.
>>
>
> --
> Stathis Papaioannou
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>
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