[ExI] As of today more Americans have died from Covid-19 than in 911

Darin Sunley dsunley at gmail.com
Mon Mar 30 21:55:48 UTC 2020

I stand corrected. Precisely one person has taken a public stab at
calculating this.


On Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 3:33 PM Darin Sunley <dsunley at gmail.com> wrote:

> The relevant stat is not deaths, but deaths-above-actuarial-baseline. A
> stat, I note, that no one is even /slightly/ trying to calculate, and that
> seems taboo to even mention in polite society.
> On 9/11, the overwhelming majority, perhaps even all if those deaths, were
> deaths-above-actuarial-baseline. Maybe a few of thise people would
> statistically died from heart attacks and car accidents, but not many. IIRC
> Eliezer Yudkowsky reported that 9/11 was worth 30 minutes of humanity's
> baseline death rate.
> It is not obvious that most COVID deaths are above the actuarial baseline
> for their demographics.
> Every death matters. But 3000 deaths sounds a lot scarier than 2950 deaths
> from causes we feel comfortable with, plus 50 extra deaths from an unusual
> circumstance. If a COVID death pre-empts and replaces a cancer, heart
> disease, or car accident death that statistically would have occurred
> during the same period, does it really have a public policy, let alone a
> political implication?
> On Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 2:57 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> Last Thursday on March 26 at 4:22 pm I wrote this:
>> *"Exactly one week ago the US had 8,898 confirmed cases of COVID-19,
>> today it has 81,476, the highest of any nation in the world. One week ago
>> there were only 149 deaths from COVID-19, as of today there has been 1180
>> deaths. And there is not the slightest sign the death rate is slowing down.
>> That doesn't sound like an overreaction to me. And unlike some, in my
>> opinion I don't think it would  be beautiful to have packed churches on
>> Easter."*
>> Even though my words are only 4 days old they are hopelessly out of date.
>> Today in America at 4:25 PM there are 159,689 people that have gotten sick
>> and 154,469 are still sick. And 2,951 Americans have died from Covid-19. In
>> 911 only 2605 Americans died.
>> John K Clark
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