[ExI] Is the USA doing too much to prevent COVID-19? Message-ID:

Keith Henson hkeithhenson at gmail.com
Fri May 1 00:08:30 UTC 2020

Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:


> And yet I am quite passionately opposed to lockdowns, lock, stock and

Hmm.  You are in the profession that was of most concern for
"flattening the curve." i.e., stretching out the pandemic to where the
medical establishment would not be overwhelmed.

If you assume no vaccine and no treatments then the integrated death
total will be the same for a fast or a slow pandemic.  A fast one
would mean a total collapse of the medical establishment and people
dying in the streets.  LIke:

Vaccine or effective treatment would change the picture.

> We the people must be allowed to make the tradeoffs regarding our lives.

Does such a world view leave any room for public health?

> If you buy into the virus doom hype, by all means cower at home. Give up on
most of your life in the hope of avoiding a 1:1000 to 1:100,000,000 chance
of dying, depending on your demographic.

Given my age and other factors, it is more like 1:10 for me.  If you
use the expected, 70% infected before herd immunity kicks in, then
around 240 million folks in the US will be infected.  Using 1% as the
case fatality rate, that means about 2.4 million will die.


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