[ExI] why belgium?

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Sun May 3 00:03:34 UTC 2020

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
Keith Henson via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] why belgium?

<spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> If we want to interpret Covid-19 cases and mortality as a function of
government action or inaction, this site is helpful:

Spike, this is like trying to analyze the final order of the baseball teams
at the start of the season.

There are very likely going to be several more waves of this virus.
It's is worth remembering that the second influenza wave in 1918 was worse
than the first.


Keith that's only one of the problems.  We are comparing data that is
inherently difficult to compare and getting more so.  Different countries
are reporting their C-19 cases and deaths differently.  The US, Belgium and
a few other places are including unknown but likely C-19 cases.  Some are
counting as a C-19 death anyone who tests positive regardless of what else
might have actually killed them.

Then within a country, we have states reporting differently.

We have hospitals with a clear motive to over-report, because it makes them
eligible for state funding if the patient was C-19 positive.  Clearly that
is going to have a big impact on the numbers.  I hafta think that is part of
the reason why half the US Covid deaths are within an hour's drive of Times
Square (assuming deserted roads.)  We have governors who are individually
motivated to over-report, to justify keeping their state closed, and others
who are motivated to under-report to justify opening their states.

We Californians are about to see some interesting fireworks: the case load
is low enough to go ahead and open shops again.  Some shops are opening
anyway, declaring themselves essential services (their paychecks are
essential (so the local cops aren't stopping them (and the state troopers
are not showing up.)))  This is a nice warm Saturday.  I haven't heard but I
am guessing the locals are having a showdown with law enforcement on the
beaches down your way.  Up here, they have the option of closing the access
roads.  Down your way they don't.


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