[ExI] Even India and Haiti do it better

Thu May 7 17:22:38 UTC 2020

> On Behalf Of Darin Sunley via extropy-chat

Subject: Re: [ExI] Even India and Haiti do it better

>…But he's not the reason that large cities with Democrat leadership are having really bad COVID outcomes… Darin

Hi Darin, if one makes any negative comment about Trump and follows it with any sentence which contains the word “but” then you have already assimilated.  John you are the last one left, the last one.  All alone.  Join our cult.  Resistance is futile.  

Darin what we need are studies with case load as a function of some factor which has promise of correlations, such as population density, reliance on mass transit (riding on top of a train doesn’t count (that’s an open-air environment (we have zero known cases where anyone on the back of a motorcycle or snowmobile with a Covid positive driver caught it that way.)))

We may learn that this virus doesn’t know or care what form of government is in charge.  It spreads best where there are a lot of humans in small confined spaces, such as one might find in high-rise apartments in big cities, particularly ones with crowded subways, where riding on top is not an option.

I don’t know how to get data to make such comparisons, but I suppose we could do it by county.  We do have those numbers.

Let’s take the top five counties from the Johns Hopkins site (ja I know, ancient history, those numbers are 23 minutes ago) but it is the best we have.

OK then, the top five counties in the Johns Hopkins site:

cases

deaths

p/mi^2

population

cases per capita

deaths per capita

cases-mi^2/person

deaths-mi^2/person

Queens

53692

4213

12556

2235370

0.02401929

0.001884699

1.91297E-06

1.50103E-07

Cook

46689

2004

3200

5150000

0.009065825

0.000389126

2.83307E-06

1.21602E-07

Kings

46139

4194

72918

2560000

0.018023047

0.001638281

2.47169E-07

2.24674E-08

Bronx

39587

3046

24198

1392000

0.028438937

0.002188218

1.17526E-06

9.04297E-08

Naussau

37350

1891

2958

1341500

0.027841968

0.001409616

9.41243E-06

4.76544E-07

Suffolk

35543

1522

630

1493350

0.02380085

0.001019185

3.77791E-05

1.61775E-06

Dang, now I realize why this is so hard to compare: these population densities are wacky: they contain huge metro areas plus a lot of unpopulated land area.

OK damn, that wasn’t very informative, because it compares apples and oranges.  Which brings up the real question:  why the heck not compare apples and oranges?  They are different, why not compare those two?

The next thing is that these critical areas all have mass transit hauling people way out there.

We need to think of some kind of metric to compare dense population areas to sparse ones.  We may find out that government response is nearly irrelevant.  Population density is what really matters.  We need to look at this from the virus’ point of view.  Which party do most Covid viruses follow?

spike

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