[ExI] nursing homes again

[Dan TheBookMan]

On Sat, Oct 31, 2020 at 11:43 PM spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat
>
> >...
> >... but if it works this way in Santa Clara I don’t see why it would be different elsewhere.
>
> >...A problem I believe might be is how typical is Santa Clara county overall?
>
> Well, hard to say, but Santa Clara county is mostly suburban and some urban.
> It has about 2 million people, about half of whom live in San Jose, then includes
> the less-tightly-packed city of Santa Clara, the cities of Mountain View, Palo Alto,
> the rich bitches on the upper west side of the valley, some smaller contiguous
> suburban towns down along 101 which are agricultural, then some unpopulated
> county-owned and park areas up in the mountains.
>
> It looks like the next county to the north which does not report by nursing home
> vs non-homer.  It is less tightly packed than Los Angeles county.

You'd have to look at other counties -- even ones across the country
to see how typical or not this is. I brought this up partly because in
a college stats course, one of extended examples used was looking at a
statistically typical county to draw conclusions about one crime:
murders. They choose a county based on a number of traits that was
average for US counties. I think it was Buffalo, NY. And they went
over all kinds of things that made it typical -- population, racial
makeup, income spread, etc. Lots of boring data stuff. Then went on to
look at crimes there and murders, then reapplied this across the
nation to show how other counties deviated and to look for
correlations. Kind of made me wonder how typical Santa Clara is. I
kind of think it isn't.

> >...I'm only arm-waving here, but that's what you asked for. :)  Regards, Dan
>
> Ja thanks, I don't know Dan.
>
> I would think we could find another county somewhere reporting this way,
> homer vs not.  Unless I can find a reason to assume otherwise, I must suspect
> nearly about half of the covid fatalities nationwide and perhaps worldwide are
> in nursing homes.  I don't know that this insight leads to any viable remedial actions.

But that's not as Bill K pointed out strange: people in a high risk
group living in close proximity dying from the very disease they're at
risk for getting and dying from. The shocker would be there's a county
or region with fantastically low COVID-19 cases or deaths in nursing
homes and yet the folks outside the nursing homes had fantastically
high cases or deaths. That would be the anomaly worth looking into --
provided it's not like a county with population 50 and the nursing
home has only 2 residents who've been in lockdown before the crisis.
That would almost certainly be a fluke. Not a flounder, but a fluke.
:)

Regards,

Dan
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