[ExI] puzzling

[spike at rainier66.com]

...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat

> _______________________________________________


>...I expected that your big lesson learned would be that everyone should
become bikers and join a club!  'Cause they're invincible!   :)


BillK

_______________________________________________


Hi BillK, eh, I am ready to reluctantly conclude to the contrary: the bikes
themselves had little or nothing to do with it.  

Bike touring (if camping) is in general a kind of a rigorous activity that
people don't do unless they are healthy.  So... that process or sport
plausibly pre-select healthy people for attendance at the rally.  On the
other hand, college students have a schedule in life, so they were more
likely to forge on, even if not up to optimal health.  Consequence: the
concentration of sick people showing up on the Black Hills State U campus
was higher than the concentration of those simultaneously gathering nearby
for the bike rally.  Then, in spite of the more careful measures observed on
the campus, their catch rate was much higher because they started out with a
higher concentration of sickies than the bikers had.

After scratching around for some alternative theory, this is the last one
standing.

Note two other big events in South Dakota: the Sioux Empire Fair was almost
concurrent with the Sturgis rally and the South Dakota State Fair followed
shortly after the rally, and ran thru Labor Day.  The SD state fair drew
over 200k proles.  If you look at that state's surge, it seems a little late
for the rally, but on time for the state fair.  In my mind, the bike rally
is more likely to filter away sickies than either of the fairs or school
reopening.  So... this might be one of those cases where the simplest answer
(even if unsatisfying) is the right one: motorcycles will not prevent covid,
damn.  But non-coviders are more likely to go bike camping than coviders.

spike