[ExI] puzzling

[Dan TheBookMan]

On Mon, Oct 19, 2020 at 3:59 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Y'all are just afraid to admit that there are too many variables in all
> aspects of the pandemic and too many you don't know the value of.
> And there is too much information you don't know what to do with
> because some of it is suspect, faked, reported differently.

I don't disagree it's very complicated and it's a story in progress,
which adds further complications. Then again, even if you look at
something like the Black Death or the 1918 pandemic, these are no
longer stories in progress but there are still controversies about
what happened and how it happened.

> If you don't know how to code the data, even supercomputers won't help you.  Maybe, it's like Einstein (?) said:  it's more complex than you can know.

That said, I do think some things one might clear up, such as whether
Spike's hunch that overcounting positive test results is happening or
likely. It seems to me, he and I don't know, but he and I also don't
know if it isn't swamped by overcounting negative test results. In
fact, I presented a report on just this from June, so it's less
speculative since there's at least one report of overcounting
negatives. But this still doesn't tell if there's a systematic bias
one way or the other.

My guess is PhDs will be focused on this for a generation or more. :)

Regards,

Dan
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