[ExI] what did we learn?

[William Flynn Wallace]

Is it typical for a virus of this type to mutate?  I assume that there are
people keeping track of whether this happens (?).   bill w

On Sat, Oct 31, 2020 at 2:58 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

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>  >…Ja it is a grim time: the data is making it clear enough we are going
> into a third wave and it is likely to be a bad one, damn.  spike on
> extropolis
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> >…This might as well be on the other list.
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> Agree.  I see no reason why this can’t go on the main ExI list either.  We
> are all in this together.
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> >…Anyway - some experts predicted an autumn surge.  Do you know on what
> basis they did?  You are following this more than anyone, or at least more
> than most.  Ideas?    bill w  on extropolis
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> Most epidemiologists predicted a big covid resurgence as soon as it turns
> frosty and people head back indoors.  The regular flu and the other virus
> stuff always goes way up in October and November.  We saw the virus
> sloshing around in South America this past July and August, so we knew
> those models were disturbingly prescient, oy vey.
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> We know there is apparently conflicting data, but what overall signals
> appear to be rock solid, now that we are 9 months into the epidemic?  I can
> suggest a few of the most obvious ones, the big no-brainers:
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>    - population density matters:  higher is bad
>    - covid travels more indoors than it does outdoors
>    - vitamin D deficiency plays into vulnerability somehow
>    - we aren’t at or even near herd immunity
>    - survivability rates have gone way up and we don’t know why
>    - testing is very unreliable and inconsistent
>    - masks probably help but we don’t really know how much
>    - social distancing is still probably our best defense
>    - borders don’t stop the virus
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> Any others?  What concepts do we now pretty much universally accept
> regarding covid?
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> OK which ones are speculative but you think are probably true?  Mine:
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>    - one is quite unlikely to catch outdoors from an infected person
>    - students generally suffer from not being present on campus
>    - students can still learn online, but the performance gap widens
>    - sunshine somehow helps the immune system resist covid
>    - businesses must stay open even if at reduced capacity
>    - gatherings might or might not be super-spreaders, we don’t know why
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> spike
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