[ExI] dead bikers

Thu Sep 3 00:44:17 UTC 2020

From: William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> 
Sent: Wednesday, September 2, 2020 4:05 PM
To: spike <spike at rainier66.com>; ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: 

>…5. A Minnesota man is the first person known to have died of Covid-19 after attending the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally last month.

Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in South Dakota for the 10-day event, many showing little interest in social distancing or wearing masks. The state has seen a  <https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/3t7q0YheLaSCC_uAVRhabg~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhMpjfP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wOS8wMi93b3JsZC9jb3ZpZC0xOS1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU3JmVtYz1lZGl0X25lXzIwMjAwOTAyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIxODU3Jm5sPWV2ZW5pbmctYnJpZWZpbmcmcmVnaV9pZD02NDE1OTc3NiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM3MzY1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD01ZTcxMTM5Yjc5YWIxNDMzZDA3NzEwZDhmODgzNTZjOCNsaW5rLTc3ZmQwYmNiVwNueXRCCgBB3xNQX8wyXEFSE2Zvb3psZXI4M0BnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~> sharp increase in coronavirus cases since the rally ended Aug. 16 — more than 2,000 new cases in the past week… 

Ja I heard.  My BHSU model predicted we would have waaaay more than that by now.  That doesn’t mean we won’t eventually get that many, but in big round numbers, we can estimate thus: about one seven-hundredth of America attended the rally.  Reasoning: about 330 million proles in the USA, about half a million attended the rally, so close enough to about one in 700 Americans attended the rally.  It is that big.

If we use big round numbers, about 1000 Americans perish of or with Covid every day.  It is dropping now, but we can use 1000 for conservative numbers (the numbers at that local university were crazy high.)  If we have 1000 chances of a 1/700 event, we should expect about one rally-goer death with or of covid per day (even if the biker dude caught covid but didn’t expire OF covid (but rather another rallygoer left a message on the voicemail that she was mildly pregnant (resulting in the wayward biker actually perishing of blunt force trauma (when his outraged bride bashed his goddam brains out with a baseball bat (that would be an example of dying WITH covid but not necessarily OF covid (he tested positive in the mortuary, he goes into the statistics (he’s one of the 94% of the WITHs (not part of the 6% OFs (but I digress.))))))))

Where was I please?  Oh yeah, statistics.

Please my smart friends, do follow this line of reasoning, even if you don’t care about hapless bikers perishing at the business end of a baseball bat, do ponder this and tell me if my thinking is erroneous.  Never mind for now that nearby University which may have supplied come of the young harlots for the event, just consider my reasoning: if one in 700 yanks went to the rally and about 1000 yanks perish each day of or with covid, then it is reasonable to expect about one rally-goer to perish of or with covid each day just by random chance.

We’re not seeing that.  I don’t know why.  There are no political anything clouding the picture from what I can tell.  No politician issued these bikers any permits or otherwise to come to Sturgis, the bikers didn’t ask for anyone’s permission (bikers don’t do things like that (we suck at following rules.))

So why are we seeing so few Sturgis covid deaths please?

These are being tracked and reported carefully.  We get our first Sturgis covid death today, but we shoulda seen a couple dozen by now and I don’t understand why so few.  Do motorcycles cure covid?  How?

Exi-friends, stop and ponder this please and do offer some explanation, because I think there is an important truth lurking in this data.  I have an idea what it is, but I want to see if anyone else suggests it.

spike

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