[ExI] bikers again and smallpox

[spike at rainier66.com]

>...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat


>...I don't think there is a chance of getting good epidemic data on the
number of people who scattered over most of the US especially given the high
background rate of infections.  So far the number tested is under 1000 out
of the 450,000 or so who came.  But if you care, the current infection rates
for N and S Dekota are the highest in the country...


Ja and that is why I am relying on fatality rates rather than new case rate.
People don't get tested if they aren't sick.  We don't know how many caught
but have no symptoms.  We do know if they die.  And they test the corpses at
the coroner, even if they come in with a crowbar-shaped chasm in the skull.
Those will be reported.

We have good data on background (or expected) death rate, and we have a
death rate for Sturgisers.  With half a million people, any half million, we
should be seeing about 1 covid fatality per day.  In the entire month of
August, total covid fatalities: 1.

Santa County, scaled to half a million August covid fatalities: 12.
Los Angeles county, scaled to half a million August covid fatalities: 40.
Sturgis: 1.



>  I am one of the guys who suggested to my own bike club that we cancel
Sturgis this year...

>...You are always making decisions of this sort based on incomplete
information...

Ja, there is that of course.  There is one comment I wish I could unsay.  I
presented my case for cancelling, and finished with the comment "I propose
we live to ride another day."

In retrospect I regret posting that comment, for as I got to thinking about
it... plenty of our club may not have another day to ride, not another one 4
yrs from now, which is when we proposed to meet at the national level again.
I probably have another day, and another one four years after that one and
another one after that, but several of our club are in their 80s already,
and others are getting there.  This mighta been their last chance to ride to
Sturgis.

>...I don't think you have a signal.  The US average (which is good data) is
about 12 per 100 k of the population (though that does not count all the
asymptomatic cases)...

Sure but I am looking at only fatalities here because they are less
ambiguous.

>...For the 450k bikers, that would mean 54 a day or 540 over ten days just
for background.  Deaths lag infections by at least a month.  Keith

_______________________________________________

Cases yes.  As far as we can tell, there were a total of about 260 new cases
total for those who attended Sturgis.  The time from the end of the rally is
sufficient that any new cases among those who attended must be assumed to
have been caught after the rally (certainly plausible.)  

Alternative: that 260 number doesn't include covid cases who never knew they
had it because the symptoms were very mild.  If we use 260 cases among
attendees, that is about half what we would expect.  We can hope there are
many covid cases which don't amount to much.  

Perhaps we can kinda account for part of that if we take out the nursing
homers., but not really: those are half the fatalities, not half the cases.
Nursing homers are waaaay less than half the cases.

So... all I can suggest now is wait until we see what happens with
Biketoberfest, and just say the bikers didn't die for some unknown reason.

Keith what do we know about the effect of really dry air?  Does that bother
covid to be completely dehydrated?

spike