[ExI] cog bias again

[William Flynn Wallace]

Spike, if you want anything from the NYT,just ask me.  I am a subscriber.
It's very cheap if you don't want delivery of a paper.   bill w

On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 3:12 PM Henry Rivera via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The NYT covid reporting is free although you probably need to sign up for
> a free account to access it. You may as well given your interest in this
> topic.
>
> On Sep 25, 2020, at 3:16 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> 
>
>
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>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On Behalf
> Of *Henry Rivera via extropy-chat
> *Sent:* Friday, September 25, 2020 10:55 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Cc:* Henry Rivera <hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] cog bias again
>
>
>
> Rates have gone up significantly in North and South Dakota since Sturgis.
> Of course, they have also gone up other places too. From
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
>
>
>
> <image001.jpg>
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>
> Hi Henry,
>
>
>
> I started comparing the NYT data with the Worldometer data I have been
> using, wondering why they disagree.
>
>
>
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/utah/
>
>
>
> Then I discovered… what the NYT is plotting is apparently what Worldometer
> is calling “Active cases.”
>
>
>
> That throws a new variable at us.  When someone is diagnosed as positive,
> they might go into the hospital, they might go home and tough it out (as my
> cousin and her husband did) or they might die.  If they die, they are taken
> off the active case list (I would presume) but if they go home and will not
> go back to the hospital (for fear of… what?) then it isn’t clear how they
> would be taken off the active case list.
>
>
>
> What the NYT should be graphing here is the new case data if we want to
> try to correlate this to a rally or event.  It appears the NYT is
> presenting active case data, then perhaps drawing conclusions inappropriate
> to that dataset, for each state has its own rules regarding when to
> consider a patient no longer and active case.
>
>
>
> I don’t have access to the NYT so I couldn’t read their article.  Are they
> suggesting this data is indicating the Sturgis rally caused new case
> surges?  I am straining to believe an actual epidemiologist would make such
> a rookie error as using active case data when they should be using new-case
> data.  I can easily see journalists walking into that blunder: if they
> studied journalism in college, they are apparently unqualified to take an
> actual major.
>
>
>
> spike
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