[ExI] india, owwwww dang

[JF]

My favorite statistics statement, "Compared to what?"

I feel like there's what, 1.8B people there, and no chance at any form of testing. The moment they do any testing, it's going to show a spike.

I'm somewhat optimistic because Covaxin looks like a really good vaccine, and they don't have to negotiate with other countries who want to hoard supply. They seem like they're well on the path to being able to control the virus, but I wouldn't be surprised if they have a large number of deaths that on paper look bad, but on a per-capita basis look totally normal.

The US had around 30M cases, 500K deaths, with an estimated population of 300M people. India has 1.8B people so 100M cases and 300M deaths probably is a low end "good" estimate. I'd probably go higher due to the multiplicative nature of virus spread and higher population density.

If we could get a reasonable prediction market on this with reliable data sources, I'd probably go long 300M deaths. India's just that dense.

‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
On Monday, April 19, 2021 11:15 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I was away from this for a week of camping so it came as a shock this afternoon when I started looking at numbers.
>
> The covid world new case rate hit an all-time record high, and India accounts for over a third of the new cases in the world:
>
> We have a lot of Indian friends with their families back in the old country. They are most disturbed by all this.
>
> spike
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