[ExI] bikers again

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Thu Aug 26 13:23:06 UTC 2021



From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Henry Rivera via extropy-chat

Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again


About Sturgis this year and last:


South Dakota COVID cases explode after Sturgis motorcycle rally

https://www.alternet.org/2021/08/south-dakota-sturgis/ <https://www.alternet.org/2021/08/south-dakota-sturgis/?share_id=6643278> 


“In 2020, the event was such a massive superspreader  <https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/motorcyclists-shrug-off-5-million-cases-for-big-weekend-in-south-dakota/> that 5 million cases could be traced back to the rally.“



But it couldn’t.  After the fact, most of these articles were debunked because they lacked evidence.  After they looked at the number of Sturgis attendees who caught covid, it was lower than the background average.


Covid cases rose in South Dakota, because it was lower than the US average beforehand.  People coming in from other states had the average rate.  So it spread to South Dakota in that event and the others, such as the state fair and school going back that week.


The Sturgis rally happens at back to school week everywhere.  For that reason, we need to trace origins carefully.  Lotsa stuff happens in the last week of August and first week of September.


Apparently the Sturgis crowd is sophisticated.  We are told that sophisticated people are protected, such as the ones who attended Obama’s birthday party and the rained-out CNN concert.  Apparently the Sturgis crowd is sophisticated too.


As last year’s Sturgis rally approach, we recognized what a golden opportunity to gather data it was, then afterwards I whined and complained that it was mostly squandered.  The articles seemed to be written beforehand with a preconceived outcome, then little data to back up the claims.  Not only was science left behind, trust was diminished.  


One chance after another was wasted, and we didn’t learn much from it because we didn’t have good enough tracking systems.  Back then we didn’t know if covid infects people outdoors.  Now we think it mostly doesn’t.  Covid prefers the great indoors.  Most of the Sturgis rally happens outdoors.


An entire year went by and (as far as I know) we again blew a perfect opportunity to gather data.  Daytona Biketoberfest 2020 came and went, two Daytona Speed Weeks have come and gone, good opportunities to gather data, lots of partying, nobody wearing masks, lots of go-to-hell libertarian anti-vaxers, lots of people camping on the beach, so where’s the data on all that?  Sturgis is an even better laboratory: isolated, easy to trace if new cases result, etc.  But It takes preparation.


I don’t know if the public health profession got it together this time.  Hope so.  Henry do you know?  Perhaps they lost interest after they found out last year’s Sturgis rally wasn’t a super spreader, nor were the BLM riots, the birthday parties, the CNN concerts, none of that stuff.  It’s still nursing homes and indoor parties, and even then we don’t really know because people might be covering their tracks intentionally.





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