[ExI] the science might be wrong

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Wed, Jan 20, 2021 at 5:34 PM Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
> Suppose there were an epidemic of a more dangerous virus, as there
> probably will be at some point, and epidemiologists agree that lockdowns
> and other measures to separate people from each other would help. Should we
> implement those measures or just accept that hundreds of millions will die?
>

### Yes, of course we should take seriously what experts are telling us! If
a lot of epidemiologists, free of political pressure one way or another,
tell us "This is the big one, it's like smallpox but twice as bad, 90%
mortality and spreads like chickenpox", we should act accordingly. A
vaccine might be produced but not if 90% die, so an immediate quarantine is
reasonable. The quarantine will kill millions of people but it's still
better than billions from uncontrolled spread. You just need to check your
premises, ask the correct questions, run the numbers and do what's needed.

Of course, science is the art of making errors in order to learn from them.
If a month later the epidemiologists say "We ran the numbers with the
newest data and it looks like it was just like Covid", we should change
policies -  always treat data seriously.... and treat face-saving and
heels-digging-in political antics with scorn.

The problem with Covid was and is politicization. Instead of promptly
responding to changing information, such as the dramatically lower CFRs and
the information about uncontrollable community spread, which completely
changed the cost-benefit ratio of various public health policy options, the
system got stuck on responses which were based on initial and preliminary
data, and thus incorrect. Instead of responding to new information they dug
their heels in and doubled up on stupid. Lockdown for two weeks, then
lockdown until vaccine, now lockdown forever. Instead of giving up on
stupid, like the masks proven useless, and the 6ft distance proven
irrelevant, they doubled down and imposed more.

I really take science seriously. It's the political clowns who don't.

Rafal
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