[ExI] Fermi paradox

[BillK]

On Fri, 14 May 2021 at 01:40, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> An alternative hypothesis would be that we live in a galactic
> Goldilocks zone and that our nearest stellar neighbors are the ones
> most likely to harbor life.
>
> The Bayesian in me wonders if the SETI detection of a radio signal
> from Proxima Centauri, a mere 4 LY away from earth, and the sudden
> seriousness of the government and the military about UAP and public
> disclosure of previously classified video.
>
> https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep29692?seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents
> https://www.seti.org/signal-proxima-centauri
> https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a35904670/pentagon-ufo-reports-objects-breaking-sound-barrier-without-sonic-boom/
>
> I mean taken separately, they are easy to dismiss but taken together
> having occurred within a few months of each other? Inquiring minds want
> to know what you think appropriate priors would be for this
> application of Bayes law?
>
> Stuart LaForge
> _______________________________________________


Sorry, the odds are very much against this.

Proxima Centauri environment appears to be almost impossible for life
to survive.
<https://bgr.com/science/proxima-centauri-life-sun-red-dwarf-5897951/>

Breakthrough now think the signal was interference. Paper to be published soon.
<https://www.space.com/proxima-centauri-signal-breakthrough-listen-pete-worden-interview>
Quote:
Worden: The key thing for us is that we have gone through the "what
if" — what if it's this, what if it's that? What are the sources of
interference? So we're just about completed with that. An internal
review team is looking at our papers, one on the approach we've taken,
and the other is on the actual data collected. Then we'll submit them
to a journal. But we're virtually certain that it was interference.
------------------------

UFO speculation tends to increase at times of political /
psychological stress. It is useful for the government to distract the public.
Since the mobile phone appeared and everyone now has an instant
camera available it is surprising that there has been a huge
reduction in general public UFO sightings.

BillK