[ExI] Fermi paradox

[Stuart LaForge]

Quoting BillK:

> On Fri, 14 May 2021 at 01:40, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> An alternative hypothesis would be that we live in a galactic
>> Goldilocks zone and that our nearest stellar neighbors are the ones
>> most likely to harbor life.
>>
>> The Bayesian in me wonders if the SETI detection of a radio signal
>> from Proxima Centauri, a mere 4 LY away from earth, and the sudden
>> seriousness of the government and the military about UAP and public
>> disclosure of previously classified video.
>>
>> https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep29692?seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents
>> https://www.seti.org/signal-proxima-centauri
>> https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a35904670/pentagon-ufo-reports-objects-breaking-sound-barrier-without-sonic-boom/
>>
>> I mean taken separately, they are easy to dismiss but taken together
>> having occurred within a few months of each other? Inquiring minds want
>> to know what you think appropriate priors would be for this
>> application of Bayes law?
>>
>> Stuart LaForge
>> _______________________________________________
>
>
> Sorry, the odds are very much against this.
>
> Proxima Centauri environment appears to be almost impossible for life
> to survive.
> <https://bgr.com/science/proxima-centauri-life-sun-red-dwarf-5897951/>

The UAP named the tic tac that has shown up on visual, FLIR, and radar  
in the Nimitz encounter was estimated to have pulled 10,000 g of  
acceleration and travelled 60 miles in a second. I can't imagine  
water-based biologicals withstanding those kind of forces without some  
crazy technology some kind of post-biological machine intelligence  
would certainly be more resistant to high g maneuvers. My point is  
that a post-biological species would be less likely to care if there  
were frequent solar flares or whatever around Proxima Centauri. Solar  
flares would probably just amount to power fluctuations in their solar  
panels.

> Breakthrough now think the signal was interference. Paper to be  
> published soon.
> <https://www.space.com/proxima-centauri-signal-breakthrough-listen-pete-worden-interview>
> Quote:
> Worden: The key thing for us is that we have gone through the "what
> if" ? what if it's this, what if it's that? What are the sources of
> interference? So we're just about completed with that. An internal
> review team is looking at our papers, one on the approach we've taken,
> and the other is on the actual data collected. Then we'll submit them
> to a journal. But we're virtually certain that it was interference.
> ------------------------

Time will tell. I just hope somebody had the sense to actually record  
the signal.

> UFO speculation tends to increase at times of political /
> psychological stress. It is useful for the government to distract the public.
> Since the mobile phone appeared and everyone now has an instant
> camera available it is surprising that there has been a huge
> reduction in general public UFO sightings.

Bill. We have stuff flying through our atmosphere and then seamlessly  
going underwater or into orbit at over Mach 5 without sonic booms  
trolling our Navy's best jet fighters. These things are showing up on  
radar, infra-red, and visual bandwidths. There are recordings and  
videos of them in multiple bandwidths. And the U.S. Navy is close to  
admitting that they are a genuine national security threat.

https://www.google.com/search?q=uap+news&tbm=nws&source=univ&tbo=u&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2nO3oldLwAhVCip4KHcNkBsgQt8YBegQIBhAO&biw=1366&bih=663

There was a reduction all the way up until 2020, when the signal  
arrived. The pandemic coincided with the most UFO reports in a single  
year at least in the United States. The press is blaming "clear air"  
caused by lack of traffic and people having a lot of time alone to  
look up at the stars or something.

https://interestingengineering.com/us-record-number-ufo-sightings-2020

So if they are not ET, then what are they? Historians from the future  
forbidden to interfere with the past? The simulators' mouse pointers?  
I do so love a good mystery!

Stuart LaForge