[ExI] i got friends in low places

[BillK]

On Thu, 25 Aug 2022 at 18:45, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
<snip>.
>
> But I digress.  I am fooling with a Kalman filter which puts our available
> observables (Atlantic surface temperatures) into my covariance matrix to
> predict European droughts.  Reasoning: although it doesn't directly wreck
> things and make for great news clips, a long drought is more destructive
> than a hurricane, Hell I like hurricanes.  But I don't like droughts.  A
> good predictor of drought is more valuable than that lame accumulated
> cyclonic energy metric.
>
> We are now 7 days from moving 2022 into second place for the longest span
> between named storms in the Atlantic.  The current outlook shows two
> depressions, each with an estimated less than 20% chance of forming a
> tropical storm.  My calcs suggest that this means we have less than about
> 36% chance of a named storm in the next 5 days, which means more than 64%
> chance we get to move into second place for most pacific Atlantic, in a year
> when sea surface temperatures are high.  We should be seeing a wet stormy
> year according to prevailing standard theory, but we are seeing a dry quiet
> year.  Think about that.
>
> My Kalman filter is having a great time.  Or rather it would be enjoying
> itself, if matrix calculus could have a great time.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Well, London and SE England just got dumped on overnight with
thunderstorms and lighting and 2 or 3 inches of rain. Not enough to
refill reservoirs, but it did cause some localised flooding. Quite
annoying if you are in a drought restrictions area and the streets are
flooded!
The UK is quite a small island, but weather conditions vary a lot
between north and south and east and west.
Drought areas and flood areas are often quite small (by USA
standards). California is almost twice the size of the UK.

BillK