[ExI] i got friends in low places

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Fri Aug 26 00:40:25 UTC 2022


 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Gadersd via extropy-chat
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>…Eliezer is quite intelligent and knowledgeable so I am very confused if he implied that processing speed and memory doesn’t have a significant positive effect on AI. That would be a blatantly false claim and spits in the face of all current AI research. I wonder if there is a mistake in your memory or perhaps Eliezer’s grasp on AI 20 years ago was much more lacking than it is now… Gadersd

 

Hi Gadersd, what Eliezer said at the time as I recall is probably accurate as it was stated at the time.  We were in a period of rapid growth in computer speed and capacity.  We were speculating on how much computing power would be needed to have AI.  He tossed a wet blanket over us by opining that it isn’t computing power which is stopping AI now (at that time.)  Granted I may have misunderstood what he was claiming and he might have specifically meant the singularity rather than AI.  AI by itself doesn’t cause the singularity.

 

What I now think is that computing capacity may well have been a limiting factor at the time for at least some tasks.  Since we have been using as an example the sea surface temperature data to predict accumulated cyclonic energy, do let me run with that.  At the time, computers (even supercomputers) weren’t really fast enough to process all that data, since we had a jillion floating observation stations and data coming in continuously.  Since then we have gotten enough computing power cheap enough that they can chew on that data 24/7.

 

This is what started me to thinking on this problem again, for it has long been a sacred concept in climate change science that elevated sea surface temperatures predict increasing ACE.  But that isn’t what is happening this year.  In 7 days, this year, 2022 moves into second place for the quietest Atlantic hurricane season.  In 9 days becomes a record setter in the 55 years we have had accurate measures (since 1966.)  There is nothing out there currently which appears likely to become a named storm in the next 5 days, so… we might get a record quiet year when sea surface temperatures are nearly as high on average as they have ever been.

 

We should start a betting pool or a game of some sort, those who are cheering for the hurricanes vs those who are cheering for a pacific Atlantic.  Being a former Floridian, I will cheer for the hurricanes (which are considered a good thing there (because they result in replenished groundwater.))

 

Side note on that: it might be a coincidence, but the all quiet on the eastern front is happening the same year as the bad droughts in Europe.  That those two things should be correlated makes perfect sense to me: hurricanes hurl water into the atmosphere, and it blows generally west to east over those regions.

 

spike

 

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