[ExI] i got friends in low places

[spike at rainier66.com]

You may recall this thread originated in predicting Atlantic accumulated
cyclonic energy using Kalman filters.

 

I have been watching the NOAA site where they update four times a day.  They
had identified two areas which had the potential to become named storms, but
in this latest update, both have fizzled.

 

The one on the left they now say 0% chance, and the one on the right they
say about 10% chance of becoming a contenduh.  (It coulda been somebody.)

 

We are now 6 days from 2022 moving into second place for the quietest storm
year since 1966.

 

 



 

 

Spike, why do you care, me lad?  Well because I know how Kalman filters
work, so I know that this unexpected quiet year when Atlantic sea surface
temperatures are at or near a record high reduces the correlation
coefficient between those two variables, resulting in a lower confidence or
larger interval in the predicted ACE in any given year.

 

But. on the other hand. the correlation I have long suspected, quiet
Atlantic year is linked to droughts in Europe, gets stronger.

 

If so, and we theorize that global warming causes more hurricanes, then
global warming is (at least in that way) a good thing because it reduces the
risk of drought in Europe.

 

If so, well hell we can build stuff that holds up to hurricanes.  That isn't
nearly as hard as dealing with severe drought in Europe, ja?

 

spike

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