[ExI] i got friends in low places

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Sunday, 28 August, 2022 6:41 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

On Sun, 28 Aug 2022 at 13:54, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> As I pondered it yesterday I realized this optimization process lacks one of the critical components we think of as human level intelligence: inventiveness.  The software goes thru a few thousand observable metrics and calculates which are the top 50 most relevant ones.  But we must give it the few thousand metrics from which to choose before it can begin.  It doesn’t have the capacity to think of new ideas or new approaches.
>
> Eventually we get a really competent boss pross that knows how to calculate a lot of things but can’t invent anything.  I know plenty of humans in that category: highly competent people, intelligent, disciplined, great accountants for instance, but they are not inventors.  I have never seen a CPA invent a new way to do accounting.
>
> Regarding the quiet period in the Atlantic, finally we are getting some activity out there.  According to the NOAA site there is about a 70 percent chance we will get a named storm in the next five days out of that red area shown in the map below:
>
> https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
>
> If it doesn’t happen in four days, then 2022 becomes the second quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1966 and if that storm doesn’t form for 6 days, then 2022 sets a record.  I like setting records, but I suspect the drought in Europe is correlated with this lack of storms, so to hell with the record, I hope the sea will let er rip soon.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________



>...I think that your conclusion is what Ben Goertzel and many others are saying ...

Ah, so Ben and Eliezer stole my idea a coupla decades before I thought of it, the scoundrels.



AccuWeather says -
>... Once this occurs, tropical waves that have been suppressed thus far may begin to show more vigor due to less dry air and lower wind shear.
----------------

OK we might be seeing this now.  Stand by for news.


>.... The European droughts are caused by increased heat (i.e. greater evaporation) and reduced rainfall as shifts in the jet stream bring hotter, drier air up from Africa. If Africa is going to be sending wet hurricanes across to the USA, then Europe may also get thunderstorms and rain up from Africa.

BillK

_______________________________________________

OK cool I had it the other way around: the low Atlantic storm activity was causing the European drought by not Hoovering up massive amounts of water and hurling into the atmosphere.  In the sub-Saharan tropics, the wind blows generally east to west, carrying storms to north America.  They hit the coast and turn north, where the wind blows generally west to east, carrying the moisture to England (I hear it rains a lot in Jolly Olde) and on over into Europe.

If those moist clouds don't show up in England on schedule, the sunlight shines down and it gets hot.

So my cause and effect are switched, but correlation coefficients don't know or care which causes what, only how the two correlate.  This is what makes Kalman filtering such a powerful predictive technique.

If you want to follow it, the NOAA site updates about every 6 hours centered at midnight in Greenwich England.  But I ask you, and especially you BillK: what's so special about Greenwich England?  Why should that place get to be the center of the map for standardized time?  It has less than 300k proles, well hell, San Jose California has more than triple that number and most of them are BIPOC so that means each counts as five thirds.  BillK what's up with you British guys handing us Greenwich mean time?  Why not San Jose mean time?

But I digress.  Here ya go, check it out, cheer for the storms:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Cool!