[ExI] lotta splainin to do

Wed Nov 16 21:50:44 UTC 2022

Here is my post few years back on Reddit. The model is still valid.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/

On Wed, Nov 16, 2022 at 1:46 PM Giovanni Santostasi <gsantostasi at gmail.com>
wrote:

> By the way my model predict a BTC value of 1 M by 2030. Keep this as
> evidence of my prediction so we can be back to in in 8 years from now.
> Giovanni
>
> On Wed, Nov 16, 2022 at 1:45 PM Giovanni Santostasi <gsantostasi at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Spike,
>> All this has zero to do with BTC.
>> To answer your doubts:
>>
>>
>>    1. the value of the stuff depends on control of the quantity (BitCoin
>>    does that, but there is no way to stop a dozen companies from starting
>>    their own competing digital currencies, dragging down the value of all of
>>    it)
>>    Right, this why it was genius to have a finite number of BTC, this
>>    makes it more like gold than cash.
>>    I have models for BTC long time growth (it follows a power law in
>>    time) that have been very reliable for the past 10 years (I started these
>>    projections in 2012). There are 100s of competing currencies but
>>    nothing comes close to the value of BTC. This is both because BTC brand
>>    value but also because of the established network effect that is almost
>>    impossible to beat. So this problem of competing cryptocurrencies is not a
>>    problem at all because in the last 11 years nothing was able to beat BTC in
>>    terms of dominance in the market. Besides the cryptomarket works more like
>>    an ecosystem where other cryptos (in particular the stongest ones) give
>>    value to each other instead of competing with each other.
>>    2. there is a weak link in the chain if we need to swap digital
>>    currency to fiat money and back, which looks to me like a demonstration of
>>    that weakness just happened with FTX.
>>    It is not much the idea of converting to FIAT currencies that is the
>>    most risky point of failure but the fact most of the points of exchanges
>>    are centralized instead of decentralized.
>>    In theory people could exchange crypto in person and pay cash for it
>>    but this is considered in most places illegal (there is a service called
>>    LocalBitcoin that is considered illegal in the US). Attempts to create
>>    decentralized exchanges were done and there are few places online where it
>>    happens but these exchanges are not very liquid.
>>    The long term solution to all this would be the full adoption of BTC
>>    as a currency to buy almost anything you can imagine. In that case one
>>    could completely bypass the conversion ot FIAT.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 16, 2022 at 12:19 PM Giovanni Santostasi <
>> gsantostasi at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Almost every single problem with crypto is that we fail in upholding
>>> crypto promise: decentralization. I lost 32 BTC because they were sitting
>>> in an exchange (while I was trading it) where the owner fled away with the
>>> funds (the exchange was called Mintpal, one of the largest at that time).
>>> Unfortunately when you deposit crypto in an exchange you lose control of it
>>> in a sense because the wallet is owned by the exchange and not you. It is a
>>> pretty stupid thing to do in particular when it happened to me that was
>>> early on when exchanges were even less secure than now.  We need
>>> decentralized exchanges. There are few but they are not very liquid. We
>>> need to find solutions to this.
>>> Giovanni
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Nov 14, 2022 at 7:17 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> We have a lot of digital currency followers here, so perhaps some
>>>> kindhearted hipster can offer me an explanation simple enough a rocket
>>>> scientist can understand (one who never owned a bitcoin or was convinced
>>>> the notion of digital currency could work.)
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I keep hearing of this FTX digital money exchange, but I don’t
>>>> understand it.  Some news agencies are reporting that it was looted by
>>>> someone, possibly an insider, but that makes no sense because the main
>>>> selling point of bitcoin was that ownership is maintained by blockchain,
>>>> which is said to be inherently secure.  So… this looter, what did she
>>>> steal?  Digital currency?  Or did FTX have a huge pile of paper currency,
>>>> and if so, why did FXT have a huge pile of cash when inflation is at 8%?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> But if they did, was that cash in a safe, then some sneaky scoundrel
>>>> with the combination hauled away the loot in the back of a very sturdy
>>>> heavily-loaded delivery truck?  A USA bill has about 1g mass, so a million
>>>> bills is a ton, so even if all that moola was in the largest American bill,
>>>> the 100, we are still talking 4 tons of currency said to be missing and
>>>> that just doesn’t sound like something that would be easily carted away.
>>>> It would be a heeellll of a job just loading the truck.  But if it is
>>>> digital currency which was stolen, how can they suppose the looter somehow
>>>> got away with 400 megabucks?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> This story makes no sense to me.  A puzzled rocket scientist I am.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Adrian or some of you other hep cats, do explain please.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> spike
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>>
>>>
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