[ExI] Missile Coordinates

[Omar Rahman]

> Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2022 21:10:35 +0000
> From: sjatkins <sjatkins at protonmail.com <mailto:sjatkins at protonmail.com>>
> 
> Why is this even a thing? Poland borders on a region in a hot shooting war. Accidental munition hits would be expected. Regardless of who fired this particular missile it was an accident. Not something to push for Article 5 invocation, which is to respond to actual invasion and on purpose military assault, as some have done. Poland, arguably for some good reasons, has been strongly anti-Russia for some time. If anyone was going to make a big deal of this they would be likely to. On examination of telemetry it looks like a SAM system that does use Russian hardware. Even if it was a Russian system that fired it and it went astray it makes no material difference to it being an accident. That Ukraine insists despite the analysis that Russia fired it makes no sense. That the world makes it a subject of so much conjecture makes little sense. What exactly would examining the site give of real material value that is not already at hand? Nothing that I can think of.

The only difference is that Ukraine is trying to maintain its 'good guy’ status, i.e. to not hit civilian targets. In the end it should also make a difference as to who pays reparations for this accident to Poland and the victims. Currently, several percent of the Ukrainian population is sheltering in Poland so good relations are essential for Ukraine.


> Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2022 13:26:52 -0800
> From: Stuart LaForge <avant at sollegro.com <mailto:avant at sollegro.com>>
> 
> Well for one thing, if it was a SAM, then GPS coordinates are  
> irrelevant. SAM stands for Surface to Air Missile, and those things  
> are usually radar-guided or heat-seeking missiles meant to destroy  
> aircraft. If it crashed onto the ground, in Poland or anywhere else,  
> then it was because it missed its intended target and ran out of fuel;  
> no matter who it belonged to. It wasn't deliberate because nobody  
> would use a SAM on a ground target.

In fact it seems that Russia has been modifying S300 SAM systems for use as rocket artillery. A S300 normally has a self destruct system that activates in the air if it misses. This is because you are defending with these missiles and don’t want your S300s landing on whatever you are defending.

In any case we will probably never know for sure if this was an accident, a Russian provocation, or a Ukrainian false flag operation. From my perspective, I’m glad that the situation was deescalated.


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