From avant at sollegro.com  Thu Sep  1 12:25:50 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2022 05:25:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Moving goal posts
Message-ID: <20220901052550.Horde.Gvqzhye9vZaFoRd78AbVD29@sollegro.com>

As Spike has been saying for a while now, the so-called experts keep  
moving the goal posts for AI to be considered intelligent. In an  
earlier thread, it was mentioned that AI is not creative enough  
outside of the boundaries of whatever data they have been trained on.  
This has manifested in ever more hairsplitting discrimination as to  
what defines artificial intelligence. For example this expert contends  
that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is still weak AI, which is  
inferior to strong AI and, also, that we will never achieve AGI, let  
alone strong AI.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-0494-4

Abstract

The modern project of creating human-like artificial intelligence (AI)  
started after World War II, when it was discovered that electronic  
computers are not just number-crunching machines, but can also  
manipulate symbols. It is possible to pursue this goal without  
assuming that machine intelligence is identical to human intelligence.  
This is known as weak AI. However, many AI researcher have pursued the  
aim of developing artificial intelligence that is in principle  
identical to human intelligence, called strong AI. Weak AI is less  
ambitious than strong AI, and therefore less controversial. However,  
there are important controversies related to weak AI as well. This  
paper focuses on the distinction between artificial general  
intelligence (AGI) and artificial narrow intelligence (ANI). Although  
AGI may be classified as weak AI, it is close to strong AI because one  
chief characteristics of human intelligence is its generality.  
Although AGI is less ambitious than strong AI, there were critics  
almost from the very beginning. One of the leading critics was the  
philosopher Hubert Dreyfus, who argued that computers, who have no  
body, no childhood and no cultural practice, could not acquire  
intelligence at all. One of Dreyfus? main arguments was that human  
knowledge is partly tacit, and therefore cannot be articulated and  
incorporated in a computer program. However, today one might argue  
that new approaches to artificial intelligence research have made his  
arguments obsolete. Deep learning and Big Data are among the latest  
approaches, and advocates argue that they will be able to realize AGI.  
A closer look reveals that although development of artificial  
intelligence for specific purposes (ANI) has been impressive, we have  
not come much closer to developing artificial general intelligence  
(AGI). The article further argues that this is in principle  
impossible, and it revives Hubert Dreyfus? argument that computers are  
not in the world.
------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile AI has been ignoring the experts and doing stuff like  
pissing off human artists by winning art contests against them.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmvqm/an-ai-generated-artwork-won-first-place-at-a-state-fair-fine-arts-competition-and-artists-are-pissed

"Jason Allen's AI-generated work "Th??tre D'op?ra Spatial" took first  
place in the digital category at the Colorado State Fair."

The future seems to be shaping up to be humorously incongruous. :)


Stuart LaForge









From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep  1 12:36:28 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2022 05:36:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 



> _______________________________________________

 

 

>>.I would think you would be more excited about next weekend, with
California 100F temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday!   Get the Pina
coladas ready!  BillK

_______________________________________________

 

 

>.Eh, I see no possibility of cyclones in the Pacific coming to our aid on
that BillK.  There's nothing to get excited about.spike

 

Wooohooo!  NOAA just updated and I was greatly appointed to see that one of
our low pressure systems made it to a depression.  Cool!  Now this formation
of a tropical depression is highly concerting.  The Atlantic didn't forget
how to whoop ass.  Excellent.

 

They shoulda called it something else besides depression however.  Too many
negative connotations associated with that word.  If we recognize that
stormy weather is a good thing in modern times when ships know to go around
them and we think they might contribute to needed rainfall, we should change
that to something a bit more cheerful, as I did in the first paragraph, with
the terms "appointed" and "concerting," terms far more often used in their
negation.  When they make it to this point, perhaps it should be called a
tropical elation.

 

Note that it still doesn't get a name at this point, only a number (five.)
So we are one day out from falling to second to last place in longest span
between named storms.  2007 went 60 days, we are 59 days, no named storms.
Go tropical elation five!

 

spike

 



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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep  1 18:50:26 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2022 11:50:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
 <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <001301d8be33$b3685b80$1a391280$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
.

 

>.Wooohooo!  NOAA just updated and I was greatly appointed to see that one
of our low pressure systems made it to a depression.  Cool!  Now this
formation of a tropical depression is highly concerting.  The Atlantic
didn't forget how to whoop ass.  Excellent.

 

 

Tropical elation five has become Danielle!

 



 

And then. spike realized he was cheering on a goddam swirling wind pattern.
Oh I need a life.

 

On the other hand. check out this video and think about what you are seeing:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33pRVaGpJP4

 

Clearly there is a looootta dust and particulates making that brown tube,
and that stuff is way denser than air.  It is swirling, so centrifugal force
would sling it outward unless wind blew it back into the cylinder.  If wind
is blowing the stuff inward, then air must be rising up in the center.  OK
all that makes sense, so now it seems like the same principle would apply to
the tropical elation, and to the hurricane if that forms.

 

Ja?  Weather hipsters, does it work that way?  

 

spike

 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Sep  1 20:46:53 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2022 15:46:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <001301d8be33$b3685b80$1a391280$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
 <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>
 <001301d8be33$b3685b80$1a391280$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEajf1m0rD806hz0EiWQG67wGVMBi-L+ypasmACBGp0b8g@mail.gmail.com>

chimps - I need to do some research but here is what I read about chimps:
there are some tasks that they are better at than humans, and the
difference is that the chimps don't have a couple of biased ways of
thinking that humans do have.

Now think of this:  suppose  chimps keep evolving - they could wind up with
better minds than ours (unless we mess with our genes and get rid of the
ones that produce bias).  And since an adult chimp (not the juvenile ones
like Cheetah, for those of us who remember him) is stronger than three or
four men, they could take over.   Or maybe we could mess with their genes
too and prevent that.  Endless possibilities for messing with the genes of
all organisms we might like to change.  Limiting possible enemies:  you
could call it 'germ warfare'!  bill w

On Thu, Sep 1, 2022 at 1:52 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
> *?*
>
>
>
> >?Wooohooo!  NOAA just updated and I was greatly appointed to see that one
> of our low pressure systems made it to a depression.  Cool!  Now this
> formation of a tropical depression is highly concerting.  The Atlantic
> didn?t forget how to whoop ass.  Excellent?
>
>
>
>
>
> Tropical elation five has become Danielle!
>
>
>
>
>
> And then? spike realized he was cheering on a goddam swirling wind
> pattern.  Oh I need a life.
>
>
>
> On the other hand? check out this video and think about what you are
> seeing:
>
>
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33pRVaGpJP4
>
>
>
> Clearly there is a looootta dust and particulates making that brown tube,
> and that stuff is way denser than air.  It is swirling, so centrifugal
> force would sling it outward unless wind blew it back into the cylinder.
> If wind is blowing the stuff inward, then air must be rising up in the
> center.  OK all that makes sense, so now it seems like the same principle
> would apply to the tropical elation, and to the hurricane if that forms.
>
>
>
> Ja?  Weather hipsters, does it work that way?
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep  1 21:51:21 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2022 14:51:21 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEajf1m0rD806hz0EiWQG67wGVMBi-L+ypasmACBGp0b8g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
 <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>
 <001301d8be33$b3685b80$1a391280$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEajf1m0rD806hz0EiWQG67wGVMBi-L+ypasmACBGp0b8g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <008601d8be4c$f98514f0$ec8f3ed0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Sent: Thursday, 1 September, 2022 1:47 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places

 

>?chimps - I need to do some research but here is what I read about chimps:  there are some tasks that they are better at than humans, and the difference is that the chimps don't have a couple of biased ways of thinking that humans do have?

 

Ja, they are better at making the right tool and extracting termites.  I aw a video of a scientist who gained the trust of the chimps enough that he could join them in working to extract termites.  They were better at it than he was.

 

 

>?Now think of this:  suppose  chimps keep evolving?

 

No need to suppose: they do and they are.  Every species is evolving.  Perhaps you meant evolving bulbous heads as humans have.  I see no selective pressure pushing the species that direction.

 

>?  And since an adult chimp (not the juvenile ones like Cheetah, for those of us who remember him) is stronger than three or four men, they could take over? 

 

I remember Cheeta!  Thanks for that reminder BillW.  Physical strength is irrelevant in the age of modern firearms.  They are the great equalizers.  But it works as another argument in favor of the USA second amendment: we will be prepared in case chimps attempt to take over our niche.

 

>?Or maybe we could mess with their genes too and prevent that? bill w

 

Prevent that?  Why?  We would encourage it, to create a great labor force.

 

spike

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Sep  2 15:09:27 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 08:09:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <008601d8be4c$f98514f0$ec8f3ed0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
 <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>
 <001301d8be33$b3685b80$1a391280$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEajf1m0rD806hz0EiWQG67wGVMBi-L+ypasmACBGp0b8g@mail.gmail.com>
 <008601d8be4c$f98514f0$ec8f3ed0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <008501d8bedd$ff0ef5d0$fd2ce170$@rainier66.com>

 

 

Danelle has made it to hurricane status.  The current accumulated cyclonic energy is up to 3.7 but normal for 2 Sept is 41.6 so we are behind.

 

Stand by for NEWS!

 

spike

 

 



 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 



 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Sep  2 19:00:50 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 12:00:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <008501d8bedd$ff0ef5d0$fd2ce170$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
 <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>
 <001301d8be33$b3685b80$1a391280$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEajf1m0rD806hz0EiWQG67wGVMBi-L+ypasmACBGp0b8g@mail.gmail.com>
 <008601d8be4c$f98514f0$ec8f3ed0$@rainier66.com>
 <008501d8bedd$ff0ef5d0$fd2ce170$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <008e01d8befe$51eb85f0$f5c291d0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

BillW sent me a book which I am finding very hard to read, not because it is boring, but because it is interesting: 

 

https://www.amazon.com/Man-Future-Visionary-Life-Neumann/dp/1324003995

 

The book has material that keeps sending me off on tangents.   Lotsa cool ideas.  This one is the most ideaey book I have read in a long time.  A coupla months ago, von Neumann?s ideas on set theory and different kinds of infinity sent me off studying that subject because I started wondering: if there are different classes of infinity, aleph null, aleph one and so on, are there different classes of zero?  Is the zero which is one over aleph null the same as one over aleph one?  What if one over aleph null is multiplied by aleph one?  

 

And so on, which kept me distracted for some time, but something else in this book caused me to go off on control theory and think of new uses for Kalman filters, which is why I got interested in the Atlantic storm season.

 

So? if you get bored with the Go Canes thread, it?s BillW?s fault not mine.  He sent me the book.

 

Regarding this last part: perhaps you viewed that landspout video with the dust column, and went down the same line of reasoning I did: wind must be holding the dust from flying outward and so there must be a huge column of air going up in the center, analogous to the way water swirls down the drain in the sink but opposite direction: it swirls up in a tornado.  My reasoning went on that it swirls up in a hurricane, and hurricanes blow like hell over the sea, so that would hoover up water vapor and hurl it way up, which should bring rain.

 

Does that idea sound about right?  I have never been a climate hipster, but Floridians know that any hurricane or tropical elation nearby brings rain, and Florida needs rain because rain replenishes the ground water.  There are no rivers coming down from anywhere.  We drink rain down there.

 

One more step: a hurricane looks to me like it would have a net cooling effect on the planet.  Reasoning: check out the satellite image below, just updated a few minutes ago.  Tropical storm Danielle makes a huge white cloud the size of Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi combined.  That?s a lotta clouds to scatter sunlight back upwards.  One of our potential storms (2) fizzled but turbance 1 down there still has potential.

 



 

 

Note to the innocent: I sometimes rename things.  I am looking at the theory that a quiet Atlantic leads to drought in Europe, and this is a bad thing, so a stormy Atlantic is a good thing.  BillK, are you with me, lad?  So we look at the names for storms, such as tropical depression.  If they lead to much-needed rain in Europe, then they are a good thing, so they should be called tropical elations.  A disturbance is generally a bad thing, so we should think of a more positive spin, a word that is opposite to that and call it a tropical turbance instead.  I was greatly appointed to see these turbances show up, as their presence is most concerting.

 

I do wholeheartedly endorse the von Neumann book.

 

BillK, help might be on the way.  Go Danielle!

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Subject: RE: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places

 

>?Danelle has made it to hurricane status.  ?spike

 

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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Fri Sep  2 19:41:38 2022
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 12:41:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Frank Drake
Message-ID: <B3BAF4F4-44FE-47D6-92F8-63759CA9B600@gmail.com>

? belongs to the ages.

Regards,

Dan


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Sep  2 20:35:34 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 21:35:34 +0100
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <008e01d8befe$51eb85f0$f5c291d0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>
 <004301d8bdff$75b69600$6123c200$@rainier66.com>
 <001301d8be33$b3685b80$1a391280$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEajf1m0rD806hz0EiWQG67wGVMBi-L+ypasmACBGp0b8g@mail.gmail.com>
 <008601d8be4c$f98514f0$ec8f3ed0$@rainier66.com>
 <008501d8bedd$ff0ef5d0$fd2ce170$@rainier66.com>
 <008e01d8befe$51eb85f0$f5c291d0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhG9tbgVm_5sNsZtsAaKtP=agaW=w9a7odGMWANf9haFA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, 2 Sept 2022 at 20:04, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
<snip>
>
> Regarding this last part: perhaps you viewed that landspout video with the dust column, and went down the same line of reasoning I did: wind must be holding the dust from flying outward and so there must be a huge column of air going up in the center, analogous to the way water swirls down the drain in the sink but opposite direction: it swirls up in a tornado.  My reasoning went on that it swirls up in a hurricane, and hurricanes blow like hell over the sea, so that would hoover up water vapor and hurl it way up, which should bring rain.
>
> Does that idea sound about right?  I have never been a climate hipster, but Floridians know that any hurricane or tropical elation nearby brings rain, and Florida needs rain because rain replenishes the ground water.  There are no rivers coming down from anywhere.  We drink rain down there.
>
<snip>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


No need for reasoning.   We have this wonderful thing called the internet.   :)
Just search for 'hurricane cause'.
<https://eartheclipse.com/environment/natural-disaster/causes-and-effects-hurricanes.html>

Yes, it does lead to drought relief, with massive rainfall up to
hundreds of miles from the epicenter.

I'm not so sure about drought relief *thousands* of miles away though.
The Europe drought was caused by a kink in the jetstream which
replaced the prevailing westerly wet fronts from the Atlantic with hot
dry Sahara air.
The jetstream seems to have now unkinked itself and the westerlies
have started blowing into the UK again.


BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep  3 02:31:04 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 21:31:04 -0500
Subject: [ExI] a little puzzle
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYp7xN24KABUokb3FYXekyUN1UMqY-fkgfQp==twJ61TA@mail.gmail.com>

How are these things alike:

a peanut; the infantry; and a pineapple

bill w
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 05:17:34 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 2 Sep 2022 22:17:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhG9tbgVm_5sNsZtsAaKtP=agaW=w9a7odGMWANf9haFA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <000601d8bf54$7a4a08e0$6ede1aa0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat

>>...  My reasoning went on that it swirls up in a hurricane, and hurricanes
blow like hell over the sea, so that would hoover up water vapor and hurl it
way up, which should bring rain... spike
> _______________________________________________


>...No need for reasoning.   We have this wonderful thing called the
internet.   :)  BillK

Ja BillK, but always need for reasoning.  This wonderful thing called the
internet is full of junk with lack of reasoning.  Some of it is good.  The
skill is in figuring out which is which.  Your site is a good one:

<https://eartheclipse.com/environment/natural-disaster/causes-and-effects-hu
rricanes.html>

BillK, the site your posted mentions some of the benefits of hurricanes,
which is something I have been pondering.  Over time, human population
increases, and humans guzzle a lotta water, huge quantities of it, more than
any other beast (depending on how you count it (because all the others do is
drink the stuff.))  We need lots of water, and hurricanes bring it.

OK then, in that sense hurricanes are a good thing.  Of course they wreck
stuff, but think of it this way: we can build things that stand up to
hurricanes.  It really isn't that hard.  So... if hurricanes are made more
numerous and more severe by warmer sea surface temperatures, which is caused
by global warming, and we figure out ways to build such that we can deal
with flooding and high winds and such, then global warming also has its
benefits: longer growing seasons, more water, more inhabitable land for
instance, but it requires that we build water control structures and
sturdier homes.

That sounds a lot easier to me than struggling to stop global warming.

spike




From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Sep  3 10:29:54 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 11:29:54 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
Message-ID: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, 3 Sept 2022 at 06:20, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote>
>
<snip>
>
> OK then, in that sense hurricanes are a good thing.  Of course they wreck
> stuff, but think of it this way: we can build things that stand up to
> hurricanes.  It really isn't that hard.  So... if hurricanes are made more
> numerous and more severe by warmer sea surface temperatures, which is caused
> by global warming, and we figure out ways to build such that we can deal
> with flooding and high winds and such, then global warming also has its
> benefits: longer growing seasons, more water, more inhabitable land for
> instance, but it requires that we build water control structures and
> sturdier homes.
>
> That sounds a lot easier to me than struggling to stop global warming.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I think you are under-estimating the cost of making property hurricane-proof.
First you have to distinguish between hurricane-resistant and hurricane-proof.

Hurricane-proof requires a complete rebuild - like round shaped houses
to divert wind, reinforced walls, foundations, roof structure and
unbreakable glass windows.
The suction pressure of hurricanes can lift an entire house off the
foundations, so the property must be tied down to the foundations.
Cost estimate is about twice a normal house cost, plus demolition cost
of previous property.
Hurricane-resistant measures can be retro-fitted to existent houses
but will not withstand a full-strength hurricane. These expensive
measures must include a strengthened safe room or cellar as the house
can still be severely damaged in a hurricane.
Then there is the cost to protect large commercial and public
buildings. You may have seen video of the roof being ripped off
warehouses, etc.

I think that both will be required.
Stronger buildings and measures to reduce global warming.

BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 13:55:55 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 06:55:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat

>
>> ...That sounds a lot easier to me than struggling to stop global warming.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...I think you are under-estimating the cost of making property
hurricane-proof.
First you have to distinguish between hurricane-resistant and
hurricane-proof.
...

>...I think that both will be required.
Stronger buildings and measures to reduce global warming.

BillK
_______________________________________________



Ja, but one alternative would be stronger buildings and measures to increase
global warming.  Reasoning: if increased hurricanes mean more rain it might
be a good tradeoff.  Or never mind measures to reduce global warming, for
they may become much less popular in the immediately foreseeable future.
This winter, when the green energy alternatives prove inadequate, perhaps
most of Europe will be asking: What's so terrible about global warming?

With all the talk about tornadoes and hurricanes, I got caught up in this:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1565957772264366081

spike


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep  3 14:17:19 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 09:17:19 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYVTcrbYxstBNH=npLF+v-8+b3qWVejCD2GfLcUVojhxA@mail.gmail.com>

Whatever happened to geodesic domes?  bill w

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 5:32 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Sat, 3 Sept 2022 at 06:20, spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote>
> >
> <snip>
> >
> > OK then, in that sense hurricanes are a good thing.  Of course they wreck
> > stuff, but think of it this way: we can build things that stand up to
> > hurricanes.  It really isn't that hard.  So... if hurricanes are made
> more
> > numerous and more severe by warmer sea surface temperatures, which is
> caused
> > by global warming, and we figure out ways to build such that we can deal
> > with flooding and high winds and such, then global warming also has its
> > benefits: longer growing seasons, more water, more inhabitable land for
> > instance, but it requires that we build water control structures and
> > sturdier homes.
> >
> > That sounds a lot easier to me than struggling to stop global warming.
> >
> > spike
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> I think you are under-estimating the cost of making property
> hurricane-proof.
> First you have to distinguish between hurricane-resistant and
> hurricane-proof.
>
> Hurricane-proof requires a complete rebuild - like round shaped houses
> to divert wind, reinforced walls, foundations, roof structure and
> unbreakable glass windows.
> The suction pressure of hurricanes can lift an entire house off the
> foundations, so the property must be tied down to the foundations.
> Cost estimate is about twice a normal house cost, plus demolition cost
> of previous property.
> Hurricane-resistant measures can be retro-fitted to existent houses
> but will not withstand a full-strength hurricane. These expensive
> measures must include a strengthened safe room or cellar as the house
> can still be severely damaged in a hurricane.
> Then there is the cost to protect large commercial and public
> buildings. You may have seen video of the roof being ripped off
> warehouses, etc.
>
> I think that both will be required.
> Stronger buildings and measures to reduce global warming.
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 15:13:35 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 08:13:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYVTcrbYxstBNH=npLF+v-8+b3qWVejCD2GfLcUVojhxA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEYVTcrbYxstBNH=npLF+v-8+b3qWVejCD2GfLcUVojhxA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009601d8bfa7$bd77ac50$386704f0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

Whatever happened to geodesic domes?  bill w

 

They never gained mainstream acceptance.  There is one near where I live.  But only one.

 

spike

 

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Sep  3 17:03:23 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 18:03:23 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, 3 Sept 2022 at 14:58, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Ja, but one alternative would be stronger buildings and measures to increase
> global warming.  Reasoning: if increased hurricanes mean more rain it might
> be a good tradeoff.  Or never mind measures to reduce global warming, for
> they may become much less popular in the immediately foreseeable future.
> This winter, when the green energy alternatives prove inadequate, perhaps
> most of Europe will be asking: What's so terrible about global warming?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I don't think you are going to get people voting for more hurricanes.  :)
The destruction is too severe, with cities taking years to recover.
The heavy rain also causes flooding and destroys crops.
Cat 5 hurricanes, which are becoming more common, have sustained wind
speeds of 157 mph or higher.
With increased sea warmth, you can expect hurricane violence to also increase.
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 that hit New Orleans only reached Cat 3 - 125 mph.
This caused tremendous damage and New Orleans still hasn't fully recovered.
Hurricane Patricia of 2015, peaked with 215-mph sustained winds off
the Pacific coast of Mexico.
That is underground shelter time!

The cost and time required to reinforce buildings means that our
cities will not be able to withstand hurricanes for many years, if
ever.
Best to try and minimize hurricanes as much as possible.


BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 17:22:26 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 10:22:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002c01d8bfb9$bd6075a0$382160e0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat

>>... This winter, when the green energy alternatives prove inadequate, 
> perhaps most of Europe will be asking: What's so terrible about global
warming?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...I don't think you are going to get people voting for more hurricanes.
:) ...
The cost and time required to reinforce buildings means that our cities will
not be able to withstand hurricanes for many years, if ever.
Best to try and minimize hurricanes as much as possible.


BillK
_______________________________________________


BillK it isn't necessarily voting.  Over time we are recognizing that we may
not be able to do anything about the climate.  Perhaps you recall the 1970s,
when the debate between the global warming crowd and the ice age crowd began
to tilt toward the former (we all breathed a big sigh of relief (warming we
can deal, cooling not so much.))

Then in about the 1990s, we began to hear messages about how drastic action
was needed immediately or it would be too late.  Dates were set, and
deadline after deadline came and went.  Well, OK then.  Most of the
deadlines are in the past, some by a decade or more.  When do we declare it
is too late to stop global warming?  Then start dealing with the anticipated
results?

Further reasoning: regardless of what the already-mostly-deindustrialized
USA does and the largely deindustrialized Europe does, we still only have
two major categories of prime movers: hydrocarbon combustion and nuclear.
The renewables are intermittent, expensive and inherently limited, falling
water is already utilized.  It is combustion and nuclear.  Combustion is
easier and faster to build.  China, India and Africa will not stop burning
coal and oil until every last lump and barrel is gone.  The western world,
which has grown rich burning coal, gas and oil, cannot stop this.  Note that
I am not advocating this course, but rather recognizing where we are.

At some point perhaps we say as a species: OK we tried, we failed.  Now we
deal with the consequences.  But it is not hopeless.  We can pull back from
the existing coastlines, build our infrastructure right this time.

spike


From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Sep  3 18:26:42 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 11:26:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 10:05 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Cat 5 hurricanes
>

I know what the name means, but the wording keeps reminding me of
https://imgur.com/APtfacz .
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 19:45:24 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 12:45:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 10:05 AM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Cat 5 hurricanes

 

 

 

 

 

 

>?I know what the name means, but the wording keeps reminding me of https://imgur.com/APtfacz .

 

 

Well there ya go, Adrian.  I am more a dog person myself but the image shows that a hurricane can be a good thing.

 

Over time, we recognize that human populations increase and that consequently the demand for water increases.  In the USA, we already have one once-mighty river that no longer makes it all the way to the sea: the Colorado.  

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=end+of+the+colorado+river <https://www.google.com/search?q=end+of+the+colorado+river&rlz=1C1SQJL_enUS782US782&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC-Y3XsPn5AhUOFjQIHSFrDDQQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1495&bih=1098&dpr=1#imgrc=jN-mSbDR_PtnvM> &rlz=1C1SQJL_enUS782US782&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC-Y3XsPn5AhUOFjQIHSFrDDQQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1495&bih=1098&dpr=1#imgrc=jN-mSbDR_PtnvM

 

It is easy enough for me to see that eventually the Sacramento and most rivers will no longer flow to the sea.  We will use all of that water, for fresh water will be too valuable to dump into the sea.  We will pour it through crops, forests, toilets and food beasts before dropping back from where it came.

 

spike 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 19:50:05 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 12:50:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <007601d8bfce$5e3772d0$1aa65870$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

Hooooly SHIT Adrian, did you feel that?  I think we just had a small earthquake.

 

The USGS site is showing one in Mira Loma about 11 km from here, but perhaps this was an aftershock?  The one they show is almost 3 hrs ago.

 

 

 

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Sent: Saturday, 3 September, 2022 12:45 PM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: spike at rainier66.com
Subject: RE: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 10:05 AM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Cat 5 hurricanes

 

 

 

 

 

 

>?I know what the name means, but the wording keeps reminding me of https://imgur.com/APtfacz .

 

 

Well there ya go, Adrian.  I am more a dog person myself but the image shows that a hurricane can be a good thing.

?We will use all of that water, for fresh water will be too valuable to dump into the sea.  We will pour it through crops, forests, toilets and food beasts before dropping back from where it came.

 

spike 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep  3 19:51:46 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 14:51:46 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZPPmJ_jscx8PZOBfNXZNH_no12_p1CHL0BAS++5UDMCg@mail.gmail.com>

I know that desalinization is expensive, though some Middle East countries
do it - no choice I reckon.  But surely people are working on the
technology to improve it.  What else could we do?   bill w

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 2:47 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On Behalf
> Of *Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
>
>
>
> On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 10:05 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Cat 5 hurricanes
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> >?I know what the name means, but the wording keeps reminding me of
> https://imgur.com/APtfacz .
>
>
>
>
>
> Well there ya go, Adrian.  I am more a dog person myself but the image
> shows that a hurricane can be a good thing.
>
>
>
> Over time, we recognize that human populations increase and that
> consequently the demand for water increases.  In the USA, we already have
> one once-mighty river that no longer makes it all the way to the sea: the
> Colorado.
>
>
>
>
> https://www.google.com/search?q=end+of+the+colorado+river&rlz=1C1SQJL_enUS782US782&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC-Y3XsPn5AhUOFjQIHSFrDDQQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1495&bih=1098&dpr=1#imgrc=jN-mSbDR_PtnvM
>
>
>
> It is easy enough for me to see that eventually the Sacramento and most
> rivers will no longer flow to the sea.  We will use all of that water, for
> fresh water will be too valuable to dump into the sea.  We will pour it
> through crops, forests, toilets and food beasts before dropping back from
> where it came.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 19:52:58 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 12:52:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <007601d8bfce$5e3772d0$1aa65870$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
 <007601d8bfce$5e3772d0$1aa65870$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <007d01d8bfce$c4a2ee50$4de8caf0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

 

Disregard, it was San Martin, small shaker close by, no worries.

 

Sheesh, never mind hurricane proof, we are still working on earthquake proof.

 

spike

 

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Sent: Saturday, 3 September, 2022 12:50 PM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: spike at rainier66.com
Subject: RE: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

 

 

 

Hooooly SHIT Adrian, did you feel that?  I think we just had a small earthquake.

 

The USGS site is showing one in Mira Loma about 11 km from here, but perhaps this was an aftershock?  The one they show is almost 3 hrs ago.

 

 

 

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com>  <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > 
Sent: Saturday, 3 September, 2022 12:45 PM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> >
Cc: spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> 
Subject: RE: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 10:05 AM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Cat 5 hurricanes

 

 

 

 

 

 

>?I know what the name means, but the wording keeps reminding me of https://imgur.com/APtfacz .

 

 

Well there ya go, Adrian.  I am more a dog person myself but the image shows that a hurricane can be a good thing.

?We will use all of that water, for fresh water will be too valuable to dump into the sea.  We will pour it through crops, forests, toilets and food beasts before dropping back from where it came.

 

spike 

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Sep  3 20:05:03 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 13:05:03 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <007601d8bfce$5e3772d0$1aa65870$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
 <007601d8bfce$5e3772d0$1aa65870$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTR9gXR3o2+40KmDzt8Sgp1+OpBBVTqv9hVOr_L+ys_Uw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 12:53 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Hooooly SHIT Adrian, did you feel that?  I think we just had a small
> earthquake.
>
>
>
> The USGS site is showing one in Mira Loma about 11 km from here, but
> perhaps this was an aftershock?  The one they show is almost 3 hrs ago.
>

I felt no such thing just now.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 20:15:54 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 13:15:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTR9gXR3o2+40KmDzt8Sgp1+OpBBVTqv9hVOr_L+ys_Uw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
 <007601d8bfce$5e3772d0$1aa65870$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTR9gXR3o2+40KmDzt8Sgp1+OpBBVTqv9hVOr_L+ys_Uw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009001d8bfd1$f8ac6f70$ea054e50$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 12:53 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Hooooly SHIT Adrian, did you feel that?  I think we just had a small earthquake.

 

The USGS site is showing one in Mira Loma about 11 km from here, but perhaps this was an aftershock?  The one they show is almost 3 hrs ago.

 

>?I felt no such thing just now. ..

 

 

 

 

 

 

OK cool good.  We have a small strike slip fault about 4 km up in the hills from here.  Lotta times when it is that one, the only indication is hearing the house creak and crack.  Good chance that is all it was.

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep  3 20:23:07 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 13:23:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZPPmJ_jscx8PZOBfNXZNH_no12_p1CHL0BAS++5UDMCg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYknORmdgXwMaZqge9UtknSdhCmk=am7Nb2zp7K_bNwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <005601d8bf9c$e3ce4860$ab6ad920$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgUfO_Hdd-91=JWePvAEjjcN7JNHZa6UtYjDzvfPRJRYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQrw-hEwoX799pN1X7=hEkpezuRGK0DCMWcC5KKTSoZWg@mail.gmail.com>
 <006d01d8bfcd$b6106bc0$22314340$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEZPPmJ_jscx8PZOBfNXZNH_no12_p1CHL0BAS++5UDMCg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00c101d8bfd2$fad107b0$f0731710$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Sent: Saturday, 3 September, 2022 12:52 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

>?I know that desalinization is expensive, though some Middle East countries do it - no choice I reckon.  But surely people are working on the technology to improve it.  What else could we do?   bill w

 

 

Build more and better reservoirs for starters.  In the long run, those are waaay cheaper than desal plants.  Granted they take up a lotta room, but those are passive desalination in a sense, solar powered if you want to think of it that way.  I notice California has approved the first new reservoir in the past thirty some years.  If we have good water handling capacity, we don?t need to desalinate.  We can rely on snowpack and rainfall.

 

Regarding this last part, an aspect of global warming theory is increased drought in some places.  Perhaps some here remember the 2017 Oroville Dam crisis.  Bet Adrian dam sure does.  I dam sure do.  We were sweating bullets when that spillway was washing out to sea.  We knew what happens if that dam fails.  

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oroville_Dam_crisis

 

Among of the findings in the investigation was that they waited too late to open the flood gates, for understandable reasons: water is valuable stuff in this part of the world.  But also: they had long failed to maintain the emergency spillway, under the belief that the water would never rise that high again.  Well, the water rose that high again.  That spillway had not been properly maintained, it failed.  We are dam lucky that structure didn?t wash away.  Oh we would be in a world of hurt, STILL be in a world of hurt.

 

spike 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 2:47 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Hurricane-proof building

 

On Sat, Sep 3, 2022 at 10:05 AM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Cat 5 hurricanes

 

 

 

 

 

 

>?I know what the name means, but the wording keeps reminding me of https://imgur.com/APtfacz .

 

 

Well there ya go, Adrian.  I am more a dog person myself but the image shows that a hurricane can be a good thing.

 

Over time, we recognize that human populations increase and that consequently the demand for water increases.  In the USA, we already have one once-mighty river that no longer makes it all the way to the sea: the Colorado.  

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=end+of+the+colorado+river <https://www.google.com/search?q=end+of+the+colorado+river&rlz=1C1SQJL_enUS782US782&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC-Y3XsPn5AhUOFjQIHSFrDDQQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1495&bih=1098&dpr=1#imgrc=jN-mSbDR_PtnvM> &rlz=1C1SQJL_enUS782US782&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjC-Y3XsPn5AhUOFjQIHSFrDDQQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1495&bih=1098&dpr=1#imgrc=jN-mSbDR_PtnvM

 

It is easy enough for me to see that eventually the Sacramento and most rivers will no longer flow to the sea.  We will use all of that water, for fresh water will be too valuable to dump into the sea.  We will pour it through crops, forests, toilets and food beasts before dropping back from where it came.

 

spike 

 

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Sep  4 13:25:03 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 14:25:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
Message-ID: <CAL_armjYPxze2pxEC9C6pPyq3+oEDmyo+pBhzrWKrfO=Y3bAAA@mail.gmail.com>

NASA has updated and improved its ?Eyes on the Solar System? 3D
visualization tool, making interplanetary travel easier and more
interactive than ever. More than two years in the making, the revamped
system delivers improved navigation, better controls, and a host of
new opportunities to learn about our incredible corner of the cosmos.

You can trace the course Artemis I will take to lunar orbit, or touch
down with the Mars Perseverance Rover during its harrowing entry,
descent, and landing on the Red Planet. It lets you learn the basics
about dwarf planets or the finer points of gas giants, and ride
alongside no fewer than 126 space missions past and present.

<https://scitechdaily.com/explore-the-solar-system-in-3d-with-nasas-new-and-improved-eyes-on-the-solar-system/>
-------------------

There is also a 10 min. video tutorial on how to use the system.

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 13:48:53 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 06:48:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjYPxze2pxEC9C6pPyq3+oEDmyo+pBhzrWKrfO=Y3bAAA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYPxze2pxEC9C6pPyq3+oEDmyo+pBhzrWKrfO=Y3bAAA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002201d8c065$12822aa0$37867fe0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System

>...NASA has updated and improved its ?Eyes on the Solar System? 3D visualization tool...

<https://scitechdaily.com/explore-the-solar-system-in-3d-with-nasas-new-and-improved-eyes-on-the-solar-system/>
-------------------

>...There is also a 10 min. video tutorial on how to use the system...

Cool thx BillK.

>...You can trace the course Artemis I will take to lunar orbit.... BillK
_______________________________________________

Artemis is having a bit of difficulty, but note that Lockheed only built the reentry system.  Boooeing built the rocket.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Sep  4 14:14:04 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 15:14:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <002201d8c065$12822aa0$37867fe0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjYPxze2pxEC9C6pPyq3+oEDmyo+pBhzrWKrfO=Y3bAAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002201d8c065$12822aa0$37867fe0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjW=9AwPf5ifWyvYqH4A-Z=yK=XJnBqAJ8Kt3gJrB4vrQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, 4 Sept 2022 at 14:51, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Artemis is having a bit of difficulty, but note that Lockheed only built the reentry system.  Boooeing built the rocket.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I wouldn't dare criticize Lockheed in your presence!   :)

Ars Technica has an article reporting that NASA should have known better.
They copied the Shuttle's main engines powered by the combustion of
liquid hydrogen propellant and liquid oxygen and the Shuttle had
exactly the same problem with leaking hydrogen.

<https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/years-after-shuttle-nasa-rediscovers-the-perils-of-liquid-hydrogen/>


BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 15:59:51 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 08:59:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjW=9AwPf5ifWyvYqH4A-Z=yK=XJnBqAJ8Kt3gJrB4vrQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjYPxze2pxEC9C6pPyq3+oEDmyo+pBhzrWKrfO=Y3bAAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002201d8c065$12822aa0$37867fe0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjW=9AwPf5ifWyvYqH4A-Z=yK=XJnBqAJ8Kt3gJrB4vrQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002601d8c077$5e0189f0$1a049dd0$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System

On Sun, 4 Sept 2022 at 14:51, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Artemis is having a bit of difficulty, but note that Lockheed only built
the reentry system.  Boooeing built the rocket.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...I wouldn't dare criticize Lockheed in your presence!   :)

No worries BillK me lad, I know your heart is pure.  But mine isn't: far too
much of my retirement portfolio is still LockMart stock.  I need to finish
moving out of that stuff.  Already sold about 2/3 of it something like that.

>...Ars Technica has an article reporting that NASA should have known
better.
They copied the Shuttle's main engines powered by the combustion of liquid
hydrogen propellant and liquid oxygen and the Shuttle had exactly the same
problem with leaking hydrogen.

<https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/years-after-shuttle-nasa-rediscover
s-the-perils-of-liquid-hydrogen/>

BillK
_______________________________________________

Well right, that's part of it BillK, but when I started studying into what
they did there, that isn't all.  Do read on please, and if you are in a
hurry, the important part is at the end.

Thanks for the Ars Tech article.  They pointed out the reason I wouldn'ta
chosen H2 as a first stage.  It is high performance and all that, OK sure,
high performance in specific thrust, the power per unit mass, oh ya can't do
better than LOX and hydrogen.  However... hydrogen has always been crazy
hard to handle: tiny atomic radius, super cold, dangerous as all hell, and
you know the thing.

Had I been calling the shots, I woulda directed the team to give back a
little payload performance and use good old tried and true kerosene LOX
first stage.  Oh is it soooo much easier and (this is the critical point) it
is denser, waaay denser in its liquid phase which is critical in first
stages where volume matters, punching thru the atmosphere.  This is what
makes solid boosters practical: they carry way denser fuel, so they can
carry more of it for a given diameter, and they aren't going all that high,
so you can give away some performance in exchange for the advantages of
solids.

So... the STS and the Artemis are a mix of high and low tech with no medium
tech (if you want to think of it in those terms) with low tech being the
solids, high tech being the hydrogen burners.  Looks to me like a better
ride would be solids with a kerosene burner main engine, or even Space-seXey
liquid boosters which land feet first on dry ground with dignity.

Oh I just can't get enough of the sexiness of these kinds of videos:

https://twitter.com/iamtomnash/status/1566019351072968708

It's the best kind of techno-porn.  I get so turned on, oh mercy, better
than Viagra, and cheaper.

Coupla those babies, kerosene main engine, adios payload.  Carry a hydrogen
LOX third stage if you really need the extra delta V.

One more thing BillK if you read this far: the main engine design is space
shuttle derived, which means it was originally designed to be used 50 times.
When space hardware (or any machine) is designed to be used 50 times (and be
capable of restart) there are cost and weight penalties inherent in the
design compared to the throw-away after one use engine.  Turned out it was
cheaper, faster and more practical to use the existing engine designs with
all those cost, weight and complication costs already in place rather than
design a new engine (Why?  Because we don't have enough rocket engine
designers anymore, that's why.)  So NASA is left throwing away hardware
after each flight which was designed with a 10 year 50 cycle life.  Damn.

My approach woulda been different.  We don't desperately need to get back to
the moon, or even if so, there is no big hurry, and we really aren't going
to fly Artemis to Mars anyway (we really aren't (time to face up to that
reality (details cheerfully available on request.)))  

So... I woulda just bought a coupla Elon's SpaceseXey tail landers and
designed a new kerosene burning main stage (with advanced control to dial in
a bit of modern automated control system sexiness) which coincidentally, is
what LockMart proposed to start with.  I had nothing to do with that
proposal, they didn't consult me at all, didn't need to because they know me
in the propulsion group and know what I woulda said.  I didn't even learn of
the proposal until I concluded likewise for all the same reasons LockMart
proposed it to start with.

spike








From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep  4 16:42:17 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2022 09:42:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] mammalian contenders was: go canes!
Message-ID: <20220904094217.Horde.U9GeUBuHzLQZtiYiiLgS-cN@sollegro.com>


Quoting Bill Wallace:

> chimps - I need to do some research but here is what I read about chimps:
> there are some tasks that they are better at than humans, and the
> difference is that the chimps don't have a couple of biased ways of
> thinking that humans do have.

This is true. For one example chimps do not engage in pointless  
ritual. Humans on the other tend to imitate the people around them,  
even when it is of no clear benefit to them to do so. This is  
illustrated by Victoria Horner's research which is show cased in this  
shot video clip (3:29) from Nat Geo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwwclyVYTkk

> Now think of this:  suppose  chimps keep evolving - they could wind up with
> better minds than ours (unless we mess with our genes and get rid of the
> ones that produce bias).  And since an adult chimp (not the juvenile ones
> like Cheetah, for those of us who remember him) is stronger than three or
> four men, they could take over.

Cheesy science fiction movies aside, chimps will never pose an  
existential threat to humans. The high end estimate for chimp  
populations left in the wild are about 250 thousand individuals. The  
U.S. has about 2000 additional chimps in captivity. Even without  
firearms or technology involved, 250k chimps stand no chance against 8  
billion humans. There are 32 thousand humans per chimp. That is going  
to be a curb stomp even if each chimp has the strength of four men. :)


> Or maybe we could mess with their genes
> too and prevent that.  Endless possibilities for messing with the genes of
> all organisms we might like to change.  Limiting possible enemies:  you
> could call it 'germ warfare'!

Actually it is called germ line engineering, and we are already using  
it in the form of gene drives against mosquitos who are actually far  
more dangerous to us (still not an existential threat) than chimps or  
any other mammal.

A far more realistic contender for the spot of top mammal would be  
raccoons. They are smart, their populations are surging even within  
our urban centers where they are starting to outnumber rats, and they  
have opposable thumbs that allow them to operate our technology.


-------------Excerpt-------------------------

More than the threat of disease, the thing we seem most flummoxed by  
is their gall. The animals seem not to know their proper place in the  
animal pecking order. At least rats know when to hide. Raccoons seem  
to regard humans as the rube roommate who overstocks the fridge and  
conscientiously cleans up after everyone else.

Of course, we don?t really like to equate ourselves with animals, so  
we often don?t think about where we ought to belong in the pecking  
order. But it?s us humans who have expanded our environment into  
animal territory. So far, we seem to have done so quite successfully.  
Raccoons are simply flipping the script by adapting instead of running  
away.
--------------------------------------

So yeah. Raccoons are more likely to succeed humans than chimps are.  
For post-apocalyptic science fiction, forget "Planet of the Apes",  
make way for "The Raccoons of the Ruins" :P

Stuart LaForge





From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep  4 16:47:51 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2022 09:47:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] mammalian contenders was: go canes!
Message-ID: <20220904094751.Horde.bvanJm99aYttn6G3iM65PI_@sollegro.com>


Sorry for the duplicate post but the previous one was missing a link  
to the Slate article I referenced.

Quoting Bill Wallace:

> chimps - I need to do some research but here is what I read about chimps:
> there are some tasks that they are better at than humans, and the
> difference is that the chimps don't have a couple of biased ways of
> thinking that humans do have.

This is true. For one example chimps do not engage in pointless  
ritual. Humans on the other tend to imitate the people around them,  
even when it is of no clear benefit to them to do so. This is  
illustrated by Victoria Horner's research which is show cased in this  
shot video clip (3:29) from Nat Geo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwwclyVYTkk

> Now think of this:  suppose  chimps keep evolving - they could wind up with
> better minds than ours (unless we mess with our genes and get rid of the
> ones that produce bias).  And since an adult chimp (not the juvenile ones
> like Cheetah, for those of us who remember him) is stronger than three or
> four men, they could take over.

Cheesy science fiction movies aside, chimps will never pose an  
existential threat to humans. The high end estimate for chimp  
populations left in the wild are about 250 thousand individuals. The  
U.S. has about 2000 additional chimps in captivity. Even without  
firearms or technology involved, 250k chimps stand no chance against 8  
billion humans. There are 32 thousand humans per chimp. That is going  
to be a curb stomp even if each chimp has the strength of four men. :)


> Or maybe we could mess with their genes
> too and prevent that.  Endless possibilities for messing with the genes of
> all organisms we might like to change.  Limiting possible enemies:  you
> could call it 'germ warfare'!

Actually it is called germ line engineering, and we are already using  
it in the form of gene drives against mosquitos who are actually far  
more dangerous to us (still not an existential threat) than chimps or  
any other mammal.

A far more realistic contender for the spot of top mammal would be  
raccoons. They are smart, their populations are surging even within  
our urban centers where they are starting to outnumber rats, and they  
have opposable thumbs that allow them to operate our technology.

https://slate.com/technology/2016/09/raccoons-are-taking-over-urban-environments.html

-------------Excerpt-------------------------

More than the threat of disease, the thing we seem most flummoxed by  
is their gall. The animals seem not to know their proper place in the  
animal pecking order. At least rats know when to hide. Raccoons seem  
to regard humans as the rube roommate who overstocks the fridge and  
conscientiously cleans up after everyone else.

Of course, we don?t really like to equate ourselves with animals, so  
we often don?t think about where we ought to belong in the pecking  
order. But it?s us humans who have expanded our environment into  
animal territory. So far, we seem to have done so quite successfully.  
Raccoons are simply flipping the script by adapting instead of running  
away.
--------------------------------------

So yeah. Raccoons are more likely to succeed humans than chimps are.  
For post-apocalyptic science fiction, forget "Planet of the Apes",  
make way for "The Raccoons of the Ruins" :P

Stuart LaForge



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Sep  4 16:49:18 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 11:49:18 -0500
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>

I reckon it was too hard.  Scroll down for the answer:









a pineapple is neither pine nor apple
a peanut is neither pea nor nut
infantry is not made up of infants

So each one 'tells' us it is something which it isn't   bill w
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 16:57:21 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 09:57:21 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <002601d8c077$5e0189f0$1a049dd0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjYPxze2pxEC9C6pPyq3+oEDmyo+pBhzrWKrfO=Y3bAAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002201d8c065$12822aa0$37867fe0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjW=9AwPf5ifWyvYqH4A-Z=yK=XJnBqAJ8Kt3gJrB4vrQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <002601d8c077$5e0189f0$1a049dd0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <002d01d8c07f$66ba61e0$342f25a0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 


>...However... hydrogen has always been crazy hard to handle: tiny atomic
radius, super cold, dangerous as all hell, and you know the thing...spike


BillK and other non-yanks here, we have a way to subtle reminder of "you
know, the thing" meme: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpMAd7uXMSY

Of course what I meant by "you know the thing" in this case was a reference
to a day on which an image is burned into my retinas, 28 January 1986, a day
which changed my life forever.

We space guys have been second-guessing ourselves and second-guessing NASA
ever since that day.  For instance... one of the options for the shuttle,
rather than hydrogen fuel is kerosene or methane, or even methanol (maybe on
that last one) with the advantages being denser safer fuels.

A calculation I did many years ago suggested that had the exact solid rocket
booster failure happened with a forward tank LOX and aft tank kerosene,
would the explosion had destroyed the orbiter?  According to my best
estimates, no it wouldn'ta destroyed that orbiter and might not have even
had any explosion analogous to what happened in the Challenger accident.  

Reasoning: the aft mount of one of the solids was burned thru, the front end
of the booster pivoted around and struck the tank which contained liquid
oxygen forward and probably also ruptured the hydrogen tank.  But what if we
were carrying a hydrocarbon fuel?  The kerosene (or methane or methanol)
would go forward, being the denser fuel (to move the CG forward (closer to
the center of pressure)) so that solid would have struck a kerosene tank and
probably ruptured the LOX tank.  But... that would likely not have resulted
in an explosion, or if so, not one likely to break up the orbiter.

OK then.  Suppose there was a sudden torque and the abort flight procedure
kicks in.  The orbiter is detached from the main tank/solids (those three
are jettisoned together) and now the orbiter is mostly intact (we hope.)  It
is altitude about 14 km, downrange about 11 km, which isn't that far, which
is why it was still in visual range to the horrified audience at Cape
Canaveral (and even from front yard in Titusville.)  

Had the orbiter remained intact, at that point, they had enough altitude,
speed and control authority to turn around and fly back to the landing strip
at Cape Canaveral.

Burning kerosene in the first stage has its performance penalties but it has
safety, reliability and cost advantages that pay it all back with change
left over.

spike






From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 17:13:54 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 10:13:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat



 

>?a pineapple is neither pine nor apple

a peanut is neither pea nor nut

infantry is not made up of infants

 

>?So each one 'tells' us it is something which it isn't   bill w

 

 

 

OK cool, contest please (because nothing has any real significance until we can derive some kind of game or competition from it): who can think of a good?hmmm? BillWord? 

 

 

*	Reading glasses are not reading and are not necessarily made of glass (I get the cheapy 3 dollar plastic ones.) 
*	A republican isn?t a can and isn?t a republic (only half of one.)
*	Bullshit isn?t a bull and isn?t shit (in the literal sense)
*	An egg cream contains neither egg nor cream (apologies to the younger crowd who never heard of it (for they grew up in our prosperous times (but BillW and I know what is an egg cream (and know where we can still get one (if we long for the simple low-cost pleasures of our tragically misspent youth.)))))

 

spike

 

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From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep  4 17:48:23 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2022 10:48:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] mammalian contenders
Message-ID: <20220904104823.Horde.nlKjIv3ePvIr6tASRDiYoLK@sollegro.com>


Raccoon outwits human in broad daylight in front of witnesses:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p3FlYkqzbGU

They are going to eat our lunch; I tell you. ;)

Stuart LaForge






From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep  4 19:55:50 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2022 12:55:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 228, Issue 5
In-Reply-To: <mailman.188.1662313717.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <20220904125550.Horde.CyUJUXXWnB-1P3BuvkNwaHz@sollegro.com>


Quoting myself:


>
> A far more realistic contender for the spot of top mammal would be
> raccoons. They are smart, their populations are surging even within
> our urban centers where they are starting to outnumber rats, and they
> have opposable thumbs that allow them to operate our technology.

Even though this was a joke post, I cannot allow myself to spread  
misinformation especially about the specs of a living thing as biology  
is my first specialty. For the official record, pandas and opossums  
have opposable thumbs, but trash pandas unfortunately do not. Instead  
they have five very dexterous fingers which can reach their palms but  
not directly oppose one another. That buys us a little time before  
they take over. :)


Stuart LaForge



From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 20:15:16 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 13:15:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] mammalian contenders
In-Reply-To: <20220904104823.Horde.nlKjIv3ePvIr6tASRDiYoLK@sollegro.com>
References: <20220904104823.Horde.nlKjIv3ePvIr6tASRDiYoLK@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <008501d8c09b$0cfd7270$26f85750$@rainier66.com>

...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] mammalian contenders


>...Raccoon outwits human in broad daylight in front of witnesses:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p3FlYkqzbGU

>...They are going to eat our lunch; I tell you. ;)

Stuart LaForge

_______________________________________________


Stuart whoever made that video doesn't know much about raccoons.  They can
be mean bahstids and can beat a fine dog pound for pound in a fight.  A
raccoon is evenly matched with a dog half again his weight.  A prole is
better off grabbing every opportunity to not mess with them.

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 20:33:36 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 13:33:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <008e01d8c09d$9c16fba0$d444f2e0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
?

*	>?An egg cream contains neither egg nor cream (apologies to the younger crowd who never heard of it (for they grew up in our prosperous times (but BillW and I know what is an egg cream (and know where we can still get one (if we long for the simple low-cost pleasures of our tragically misspent youth.)))))

 

spike

 

 

 

OK I just returned from a 6 mile walk.  Writing about it caused me to have a major boner for a nice cool chocolate egg cream, oh so good, so good.  BillW visualize the young among us Googling egg cream near me.  Short cut: Baskin Robbins will make those for yas, or if you are lucky enough to have a Fosters Freeze Old Fashion Burgers in the area (which is where I walked.)  So good.

 

BillK, this big heat wave we were supposed to have is more fizzle than sizzle so far.  It was a warm but pleasant early 30s for my egg cream walk.  Might be still coming yet.  Note to Brits and Europeans among us, you can speak celcius here, a lot of us techno-hipster yanks are comfortable with it.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Sep  4 20:45:52 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 13:45:52 -0700
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSRe=Bskuh2W2B7ANWZQVzb5Vg=ih=0D+7hR3hcg364Fg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Sep 4, 2022 at 10:15 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>    - Bullshit isn?t a bull and isn?t shit (in the literal sense)
>
>
No, there exists literal bullshit, in addition to the more often
encountered metaphorical stuff.
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From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep  4 21:26:44 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 04 Sep 2022 14:26:44 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
Message-ID: <20220904142644.Horde.Ke_2NH6IuflNVdNIJlElJdd@sollegro.com>


Quoting Spike:

> One more thing BillK if you read this far: the main engine design is space
> shuttle derived, which means it was originally designed to be used 50 times.
> When space hardware (or any machine) is designed to be used 50 times (and be
> capable of restart) there are cost and weight penalties inherent in the
> design compared to the throw-away after one use engine.  Turned out it was
> cheaper, faster and more practical to use the existing engine designs with
> all those cost, weight and complication costs already in place rather than
> design a new engine (Why?  Because we don't have enough rocket engine
> designers anymore, that's why.)  So NASA is left throwing away hardware
> after each flight which was designed with a 10 year 50 cycle life.  Damn.

It boggles common sense. Why is NASA being so deliberately wasteful?  
The selfish monkey in me understands why old-school NASA techs would  
want to eschew Elon's new-fangled engines and shit, but if you were  
going resurrect old designs from the mothballs, why resurrect the  
Shuttle engine when you could have resurrected the ONLY heavy
lift design that has made it beyond LEO i.e. Saturn V?

For its first stage engine, Saturn V used the S-IC that was *irony  
alert* also built by the Boeing Company which used a liquid  
hydrocarbon fuel called RP-1, which was chemically similar to kerosene  
and jet fuel, in combination with LOX. Which is pretty much what you  
suggested above. If you are going to use legacy designs from your  
company, why not use the legacy designs you know for sure work?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V

> My approach woulda been different.  We don't desperately need to get back to
> the moon, or even if so, there is no big hurry, and we really aren't going
> to fly Artemis to Mars anyway (we really aren't (time to face up to that
> reality (details cheerfully available on request.)))


Elon would not let a bloated government political statement beat him  
to Mars, even if NASA did have its shit together, which its engine  
designs leave me in doubt of.

> So... I woulda just bought a coupla Elon's SpaceseXey tail landers and
> designed a new kerosene burning main stage (with advanced control to dial in
> a bit of modern automated control system sexiness) which coincidentally, is
> what LockMart proposed to start with.

Well that would made more sense with an engine design meant to  
withstand 50 launches. I understand they wanting to distinguish  
themselves from Elon. But why did they choose so poorly? Did they hire  
Disney writers for engineering positions?

Stuart LaForge





From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 22:17:47 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 15:17:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <20220904142644.Horde.Ke_2NH6IuflNVdNIJlElJdd@sollegro.com>
References: <20220904142644.Horde.Ke_2NH6IuflNVdNIJlElJdd@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <00c601d8c0ac$2a192af0$7e4b80d0$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System


Quoting Spike:

> ...
>>... (Why?  Because we don't have enough rocket engine designers anymore, 
> that's why.)  So NASA is left throwing away hardware after each flight
which was designed with a 10 year 50 cycle life.  Damn.

>...It boggles common sense. Why is NASA being so deliberately wasteful?  
The selfish monkey in me understands why old-school NASA techs would want to
eschew Elon's new-fangled engines and shit, but if you were going resurrect
old designs from the mothballs, why resurrect the Shuttle engine when you
could have resurrected the ONLY heavy lift design that has made it beyond
LEO i.e. Saturn V?

Heh.  Thanks for that, Stuart. 

As you pointed out in the subsequent paragraphs, the Saturn V motors were
kerosene burners, or RP-1 if you prefer a more general term (kerosene is a
type of RP-1 (car fuel is octane, kerosene is mostly twelve-cane, RP-1 is a
mixture of canes sometimes known as CnH~2n.)  It has lower performance but
oh it has its big advantages for cost, reliability, handling and safety.


>...Elon would not let a bloated government political statement beat him to
Mars, even if NASA did have its shit together, which its engine designs
leave me in doubt of...

I pondered this deeply on my egg cream walk today and may have a few new
insights for us.

Getting a motor qualified for carrying humans is crazy never-mind expensive,
which is why passenger airplanes stopped changing about 70 years ago.  If
you look at especially the small planes such as the Cessna 172, it is hard
to tell a well-cared-for 1960 model from one made today.  The engine is
nearly identical, because it costs a ton of money to test and qualify any
new design.

The same applies for rocket motors.  Since little has changed in chemical
propulsion tech in the past 60 years, it makes perfect sense to use Saturn V
designs as opposed to Space Shuttle motor designs in my opinion (but they
didn't ask me (the LockMart propulsion guys already know I would say that
(it isn't because of my having any particular love of kerosene (but rather
because when we optimize a rocket, maximum payload isn't the only
consideration (it is an important one (but not the only one.)))))

If a prole wants to design a heavy lift vehicle, she must take into account
development cost, recurring manufacturing costs, one-time manufacturing
costs, reliability, schedule, design risk, all that stuff.  The kerosene
burning Sat V motor was a good reliable product, we know how to build it and
what it takes to set up a factory, all that stuff, but here is the real
heart of the problem: they are having leaky valve problems this time which
will cause them to roll back into the VAB.  My grim prediction is that leaky
valves and lines will ALWAYS plague this design because we damn well know
that liquid hydrogen is inherently hard to handle and dangerous as all hell.
The whole time it is out on the pad after fueling, that hydrogen is boiling
away, boiling cold at about 20 Kelvin in the balmy Florida summer afternoon
which is often well over 300 Kelvin, so temperature delta of nearly 300
degrees.  That vapor hydrogen hasta be gathered up the best you can, because
it is too dangerous to let it vent freely, but that is hard to do.

The oxygen can be left to vent into the air and there is a looooot less of
it, boiling at 90 Kelvin rather than 20 Kelvin.  Heat of vaporization of
oxygen 3.4 kJ/mol vs 0.45 kJ per mole for hydrogen, so Stuart now let those
last two numbers sink in and think about what that means for the amount of
dangerous vapor around that big candle, ja?  The hydrogen vapor, even if we
are struggling to hoover up all of it, means you can't risk venting the
oxygen, but... if you have kerosene fuel, eh, what the hell, there is so
little of it you can just let the oxygen go free.  It is unlikely to cause
problems.

I have probably overstated my case considering you likely know all this
already.




> So... I woulda just bought a coupla Elon's SpaceseXey tail landers and 
> designed a new kerosene burning main stage (with advanced control to 
> dial in a bit of modern automated control system sexiness) which 
> coincidentally, is what LockMart proposed to start with.

>...Well that would made more sense with an engine design meant to withstand
50 launches. I understand they wanting to distinguish themselves from Elon.
But why did they choose so poorly? Did they hire Disney writers for
engineering positions?  Stuart LaForge

I don't know Stuart, but I will make an uncomfortable speculation.

NASA was formed in the height of the cold war.  They set up factories all
over the damn place to reduce risk the commies would try to nuke the rocket
facilities.  The more cynical among us would say they did that to bring more
senators and representatives on board, since nearly every state had a piece
of the space action.  That is also probably part of it, but that strategy
has its costs, if you are ever in charge of a subcontract: you are on the
road all the damn time flying around the country to see your operations.  Oh
that is exhausting and it is expensive.

Musk doesn't do things that way.  He puts his suppliers right there in the
neighborhood, which is why so many little towns near the cape are undergoing
a most dramatic gentrification.  Elon wants his supply lines to be SHORT and
he wants his engineers to be able to DRIVE to their factories and get back
that day.  Oh that would be so nice.  Most of the time when I worked for
LockMart, it was a day-flight over, one day in the office, a day flight
back, oy vey, so wasteful.

Well... NASA still needs senators and congressmen  to support their effort.

Hate to say it, but I think that is a lotta why we are seeing a hydrogen
first stage.  Egregiously cynical is this attitude!  More Eeyore than Tigger
I am!

spike

_______________________________________________




From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 22:54:04 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 15:54:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <00c601d8c0ac$2a192af0$7e4b80d0$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220904142644.Horde.Ke_2NH6IuflNVdNIJlElJdd@sollegro.com>
 <00c601d8c0ac$2a192af0$7e4b80d0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <000501d8c0b1$3bcbdc70$b3639550$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
...

>...Well... NASA still needs senators and congressmen  to support their
effort.

>...Hate to say it, but I think that is a lotta why we are seeing a hydrogen
first stage.  Egregiously cynical is this attitude!  More Eeyore than Tigger
I am!

spike

_______________________________________________


Stuart, you have me on a rant here, but I will try to see the bright side of
it all (my trademark (hell I was the guy cheering for goddam HURRICANES.))  

Using hydrogen first stages will increase Artemis' total payload capability
which is a good thing, and maybe we will get better at handling liquid
hydrogen, even knowing it is inherently difficult and dangerous.

After I did a few calcs, I realized we could lift the restartable engines
and tanks all the way up to LEO and park them there, so they will be
available to haul stuff to Mars.  Kerosene can be stored on orbit, but
hydrogen really can't (it boils off too quickly.)  However, we might be able
to use the increased payload capability of Artemis to haul a re-startable
rocket motor and tanks of kerosene to orbit, transfer the capsule to that
vehicle, then fly that to Mars.

On second thought, Stuart, scratch that.  The irony of using a hydrogen
first stage to lift a kerosene final stage, oh that is killing me.

OK then.  There is a bright side in all this somewhere, but the argument
above is an epic fail, my apologies, sheesh how embarraskin.

I have the option to not post this note, but I think I will post anyway.
Reasoning: my engineering notebook was filled with approaches I would look
at, do some BOTECs, reject, leave the pages in there to show how and when I
considered it already.

spike


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep  4 23:47:39 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 16:47:39 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <000501d8c0b1$3bcbdc70$b3639550$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220904142644.Horde.Ke_2NH6IuflNVdNIJlElJdd@sollegro.com>
 <00c601d8c0ac$2a192af0$7e4b80d0$@rainier66.com>
 <000501d8c0b1$3bcbdc70$b3639550$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <000a01d8c0b8$b81837e0$2848a7a0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
...

>...On second thought, Stuart, scratch that.  The irony of using a hydrogen
first stage to lift a kerosene final stage, oh that is killing me...OK then.
There is a bright side in all this somewhere, but the argument above is an
epic fail, my apologies, sheesh how embarraskin...spike



Stuart as I am pondering the problem of carrying humans to Mars, I am
reminded of the ugliness of some of the solutions one must try.  Like that
business of lifting a kerosene burning stage using a hydrogen burning stage
for instance, from an engineering point of view, it is just uglier than
nudist colony day at the nursing home.

The problem is based on the need to fire a delta V from earth orbit, then
fire an orbit adjust burn when we get to Mars about 8 months later, then go
play on the surface of Mars for a few days, then when (or if) the humans
come back, you have another orbit adjust burn to get back to Earth, then
another burn 8 months after that to insert into LEO to get ready for
descent, then a descent initiation burn.

OK so even if you had those huge first stage motors in LEO... you wouldn't
use them.  Reason: there is no point in hauling all that stuff out to Mars
where you can't use it because we have no known technology for holding onto
liquid hydrogen for the 8 months it takes to get to Mars.  So... we need to
haul low-volatility fuel oxidizer (because can't hang onto LOX that long
either) so we get hydrazine and nitric acid thrusters for everything after
we leave Earth orbit.

Oh what an ugly solution that is.

spike



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 00:02:14 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 19:02:14 -0500
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>

Thanks, Spike.  There must have been some Yankees around when you were in
Florida.  I never heard of egg cream in Mississippi until a Jewish friend
from Rhode Island said he missed them.

I am an obsessive about looking things up, but I never knew what egg cream
was until a few minutes ago.  (I was hoping it did contain those two
ingredients because that would make it really rich.)

I have read many books on words and their origins (and wish I could
remember more of them).  I love finding things like the words in the puzzle
(which occurred to me when I found myself staring at the word 'infantry'.).

I dislike 'non-dairy creamer' because it tells us what it is not, not what
it is.

If anyone has words like pineapple and peanut to share with me.....
thanks!   bill

On Sun, Sep 4, 2022 at 12:15 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On Behalf
> Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
>
>
>
> >?a pineapple is neither pine nor apple
>
> a peanut is neither pea nor nut
>
> infantry is not made up of infants
>
>
>
> >?So each one 'tells' us it is something which it isn't   bill w
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> OK cool, contest please (because nothing has any real significance until
> we can derive some kind of game or competition from it): who can think of a
> good?hmmm? BillWord?
>
>
>
>
>
>    - Reading glasses are not reading and are not necessarily made of
>    glass (I get the cheapy 3 dollar plastic ones.)
>    - A republican isn?t a can and isn?t a republic (only half of one.)
>    - Bullshit isn?t a bull and isn?t shit (in the literal sense)
>    - An egg cream contains neither egg nor cream (apologies to the
>    younger crowd who never heard of it (for they grew up in our prosperous
>    times (but BillW and I know what is an egg cream (and know where we can
>    still get one (if we long for the simple low-cost pleasures of our
>    tragically misspent youth.)))))
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 00:08:05 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 19:08:05 -0500
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 228, Issue 5
In-Reply-To: <20220904125550.Horde.CyUJUXXWnB-1P3BuvkNwaHz@sollegro.com>
References: <mailman.188.1662313717.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <20220904125550.Horde.CyUJUXXWnB-1P3BuvkNwaHz@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYAwqZJBR8qj=DN0iqr5XphAN7iE7hmkURuaNDAuNL-KQ@mail.gmail.com>

Why would pandas want to take over? What more could they want than what we
do for them now?  Highly protected species  of great worth.  Get treated
royally.   bill w

On Sun, Sep 4, 2022 at 2:57 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> Quoting myself:
>
>
> >
> > A far more realistic contender for the spot of top mammal would be
> > raccoons. They are smart, their populations are surging even within
> > our urban centers where they are starting to outnumber rats, and they
> > have opposable thumbs that allow them to operate our technology.
>
> Even though this was a joke post, I cannot allow myself to spread
> misinformation especially about the specs of a living thing as biology
> is my first specialty. For the official record, pandas and opossums
> have opposable thumbs, but trash pandas unfortunately do not. Instead
> they have five very dexterous fingers which can reach their palms but
> not directly oppose one another. That buys us a little time before
> they take over. :)
>
>
> Stuart LaForge
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 00:42:51 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 17:42:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] answer to little puzzle

 

>?Thanks, Spike.  There must have been some Yankees around when you were in Florida.  I never heard of egg cream in Mississippi until a Jewish friend from Rhode Island said he missed them?

 

Heh.  Where I grew up was about half yankees and half redneck.  But it wasn?t a yankee establishment that sold egg creams.  It was a fun redneck sports bar/restaurant called Big Boy?s.

 

https://www.amazon.com/Open-Road-Brands-Classic-Kitchen/dp/B0B2SJYZZN/ref=asc_df_B0B2SJYZZN/?tag=hyprod-20 <https://www.amazon.com/Open-Road-Brands-Classic-Kitchen/dp/B0B2SJYZZN/ref=asc_df_B0B2SJYZZN/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=598351409681&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=3373454197572654037&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9032144&hvtargid=pla-1721878312015&psc=1> &linkCode=df0&hvadid=598351409681&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=3373454197572654037&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9032144&hvtargid=pla-1721878312015&psc=1

 

But that wasn?t the original sign.  That was a later version, perhaps about 1970.  But ours predated that sign.  We had one of these:

 



 

It was up on a pedestal on a turntable, atop a pole about 12 ft up.  Even up there, some sleazy bastard stole it.  Note the figurine is about the size of an actual man.  Musta been a determine thief(s.)  But a retro-figurine like this is now worth a cool fortune.  

 

>?I am an obsessive about looking things up, but I never knew what egg cream was until a few minutes ago?

 

If you want to make one, there are simple recipes online:

 

https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/167351/egg-cream/

 

I learned something new as well: I never knew it was a New York thing.  The guy down at the Fat Boy?s (that?s what we called Big Boy?s) didn?t talk New York.

 

It was at that Fat Boy?s that the What club came to have a slogan.  Fun story available on request.

 

spike

 

 

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 03:00:20 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 4 Sep 2022 20:00:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <000a01d8c0b8$b81837e0$2848a7a0$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220904142644.Horde.Ke_2NH6IuflNVdNIJlElJdd@sollegro.com>
 <00c601d8c0ac$2a192af0$7e4b80d0$@rainier66.com>
 <000501d8c0b1$3bcbdc70$b3639550$@rainier66.com>
 <000a01d8c0b8$b81837e0$2848a7a0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <000601d8c0d3$a3259010$e970b030$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
>...On second thought, Stuart, scratch that.  The irony of using a 
>hydrogen first stage to lift a kerosene final stage, oh that is killing
me...OK then.
>...There is a bright side in all this somewhere, but the argument above is
an epic fail, my apologies, sheesh how embarraskin...spike

...
>...Oh what an ugly solution that is.  spike




BillK, we yanks don't trust our "news" sources anymore as they are caught up
in our current culture war.  As I pondered this topic of rockets I wonder
about a news story we heard but don't know if it is true.  Are the commies
threatening to shut off the gas supply to Germany?  Do you have reliable
news sources over on that side?

If this is true, figuring out the right engineering solution to get humans
to Mars is a minor concern compared to getting the Europeans thru the coming
winter.

spike 


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 09:03:49 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 10:03:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 228, Issue 5
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYAwqZJBR8qj=DN0iqr5XphAN7iE7hmkURuaNDAuNL-KQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.188.1662313717.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <20220904125550.Horde.CyUJUXXWnB-1P3BuvkNwaHz@sollegro.com>
 <CAO+xQEYAwqZJBR8qj=DN0iqr5XphAN7iE7hmkURuaNDAuNL-KQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjmDU4M=qfApgWQjAibAkNZAQ_vna24eO_-1z=rUvpBGg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 5 Sept 2022 at 01:10, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Why would pandas want to take over? What more could they want than what we do for them now?  Highly protected species  of great worth.  Get treated royally.   bill w
> _______________________________________________


I was puzzled as well, as I haven't heard the term 'trash panda' before.
After searching around I found -
<https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/trash_panda>

Etymology
>From a likening of the black patches around a raccoon's eyes to
similar markings on a panda, and a reference to its tendency to forage
for garbage in urban environments.
<https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/04/12/it-took-this-raccoon-30-seconds-to-break-into-a-raccoon-proof-green-bin.html>

BillK

From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 15:40:03 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 10:40:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>

I have not had carbonated water in a long time.  Even diet soda is not good
for you.

Always tell the stories - don't wait for my requests.

Seems like the Big Boy restaurant had another name but I cannot think of
it.  bill w

On Sun, Sep 4, 2022 at 7:45 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *?*> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
>
>
>
> >?Thanks, Spike.  There must have been some Yankees around when you were
> in Florida.  I never heard of egg cream in Mississippi until a Jewish
> friend from Rhode Island said he missed them?
>
>
>
> Heh.  Where I grew up was about half yankees and half redneck.  But it
> wasn?t a yankee establishment that sold egg creams.  It was a fun redneck
> sports bar/restaurant called Big Boy?s.
>
>
>
>
> https://www.amazon.com/Open-Road-Brands-Classic-Kitchen/dp/B0B2SJYZZN/ref=asc_df_B0B2SJYZZN/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=598351409681&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=3373454197572654037&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9032144&hvtargid=pla-1721878312015&psc=1
>
>
>
> But that wasn?t the original sign.  That was a later version, perhaps
> about 1970.  But ours predated that sign.  We had one of these:
>
>
>
>
>
> It was up on a pedestal on a turntable, atop a pole about 12 ft up.  Even
> up there, some sleazy bastard stole it.  Note the figurine is about the
> size of an actual man.  Musta been a determine thief(s.)  But a
> retro-figurine like this is now worth a cool fortune.
>
>
>
> >?I am an obsessive about looking things up, but I never knew what egg
> cream was until a few minutes ago?
>
>
>
> If you want to make one, there are simple recipes online:
>
>
>
> https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/167351/egg-cream/
>
>
>
> I learned something new as well: I never knew it was a New York thing.
> The guy down at the Fat Boy?s (that?s what we called Big Boy?s) didn?t talk
> New York.
>
>
>
> It was at that Fat Boy?s that the What club came to have a slogan.  Fun
> story available on request.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 16:09:50 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 17:09:50 +0100
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgxDy2mUJ=fgYJ8nV2gQg+cFyTLmhAETE4k0yOQb6f71g@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 5 Sept 2022 at 16:43, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> I have not had carbonated water in a long time.  Even diet soda is not good for you.
> Always tell the stories - don't wait for my requests.
>
> Seems like the Big Boy restaurant had another name but I cannot think of it.  bill w
> _______________________________________________


That's the Big Boy Restaurant Chain. It had several names.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Boy_Restaurants>
and as Spike said, several different mascots/statues.


BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 16:14:14 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 09:14:14 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <000a01d8c0b8$b81837e0$2848a7a0$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220904142644.Horde.Ke_2NH6IuflNVdNIJlElJdd@sollegro.com>
 <00c601d8c0ac$2a192af0$7e4b80d0$@rainier66.com>
 <000501d8c0b1$3bcbdc70$b3639550$@rainier66.com>
 <000a01d8c0b8$b81837e0$2848a7a0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <00aa01d8c142$8b4f6c30$a1ee4490$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Sent: Sunday, 4 September, 2022 4:48 PM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: spike at rainier66.com
Subject: RE: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> ...

>...On second thought, Stuart, scratch that.  The irony of using a 
>hydrogen first stage to lift a kerosene final stage, oh that is killing
me... spike



Oldie but a goodie.  The fun stuff starts about at 7 minutes in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf4qRY3h_eo&t=441s

A lot of us watched the hell outta this video and it changed a lot of
attitudes (sure did mine.)  At that time, I was still thinking we weren't
quite there yet on feet-first landing, and still cheering for an updated
variant of LockMart's Titan IV.  But after I saw the successful triple
landing in April 2019, I was convinced: ja, Elon's whooped our ass, fair and
square, if ya can't beat em, join em, etc.

The SpaceX Falcon Heavy is a kerosene burner.  Stuart what I don't know but
want to find out: is it practical to feet-first land a hydrogen booster?  I
can imagine it would be a loooot more difficult and dangerous, but I don't
know that it would be impossible.  The fire risk would be thru the roof:
hydrogen will find any tiny crack or weld flaw anywhere, and if it leaks,
the fire cannot be put out by any means I can easily envision: you wouldn't
send firemen running up to it with a hose.

spike


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 16:39:21 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 11:39:21 -0500
Subject: [ExI] brands
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaDwk4pgTYiFtjy7UQeG_bekQQrD8XRyOQ=ym2wiX8vJA@mail.gmail.com>

Amazon, Ikea, Netflix take over the world - surprised Youtube is not there
- bill w

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/most-searched-consumer-brands-2022/
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 16:59:59 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 09:59:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00db01d8c148$ef6ace70$ce406b50$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] answer to little puzzle

 

>?I have not had carbonated water in a long time?

 

Good, that?s all the more for me.  {8^D

 

>?Even diet soda is not good for you?

 

So I am told.  My doctor suggests going light on it, but I guzzle the stuff like it is the staff of life.  Sigh.

>>?It was at that Fat Boy?s that the What club came to have a slogan.  Fun story available on request.

 

>?Always tell the stories - don't wait for my requests.   ?Seems like the Big Boy restaurant had another name but I cannot think of it.  bill w

 

I too always thought it was the Fat Boy?s but I don?t know if it had another name.

 

I went on Google maps to see if the building is still there.  It isn?t.  Note a pawn shop with a painted-on sign just to the left of the green S. Washington street sign.  OK then.  If one is a bad guy, go to a different state.  Florida isn?t a sanctuary for that.

 



 

My father was an officer in a local men?s club, Sertoma Titusville chapter (back in those days, there were only two genders, and clubs usually only had one (such primitive savages they were.))  The town was getting ready for its upcoming centennial celebration, so the men?s clubs got together and decided to have the men dress in 1867-ish.  Men wore beards in 1867 when Titusville was founded, but in 1966, we heard of these undesirables known as ?hippies? who did likewise.  Titusville had never seen an actual ?hippy? in 1967 but we had heard of them.  The locals didn?t want to look like these ?hippies? so it was decided to dress like Abraham Lincoln.  Yanks, take out your five dollar bills.  Like that.  Short neat beards, short-ish kinda neat hair, vest, ribbon tie, hat was optional.  

 

OK then, it was decided: the men?s clubs would dress like Lincoln, encourage all the men to grow a short neat beard.  

 

It caught on, and within a few weeks most of the local men, including the other men?s clubs, had the short neat beards.  Early January 1967, Sertoma was meeting at the Fat Boy?s to decide on a club slogan or motto.  They had their ideas and shared them freely in this raucous sports bar/restaurant.  A man walked in alone, clean shaven, military crew cut.  He sat down at the bar and ordered a beer.  As the bartender brought his mug, the clatter died down to where it was quieter than a library with the only sounds being whispers.  The man turned around and said ?Whaaaaaat??

 

Everybody laughed, and someone called out ?Good luck Colonel Grissom!?  He grinned and said ?Thanks!? He turned around and went back to drinking his beer.  Nobody bothered him.

 

My father?s club, Sertoma Titusville chapter, decided that day on their club motto: What.  

 

You know what happened a few weeks later: Grissom didn?t have good luck.  He and two others perished in the horrifying Apollo 1 fire.  His famous What quote went on the Sertoma ribbons and hatbands.  Not his more famous quote in which the non-public speaking Grissom made an entire speech to an aerospace company consisting of three words: Do good work.  Seems like ?Do good work? would have been a great Sertoma slogan considering the name of the organization is derived from SERvice TO MAnkind, but because of that incident in early January 1967, their chapter slogan was: What?  

 

Sertoma Titusville chapter made ribbons for the upcoming centennial celebration, which is why I have a photo of the club with most of the members having a What ribbon in their hatbands.  They had a secret club handshake: traditional shake followed by spreading the hands palms up as Grissom had done at the Fat Boy?s, with a hearty ?Whaaaat??

 

That was life in the 1960s in that part of the world.  It was a marvelous place and time to cheerfully squander one?s tragically misspent youth.

 

spike

 

 

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From avant at sollegro.com  Mon Sep  5 19:34:15 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2022 12:34:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
Message-ID: <20220905123415.Horde.k5um6KlAdpTAcDMPbG2R5-d@sollegro.com>


Quoting Spike,

-----Original Message-----
> From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
> ...
>
>> ...On second thought, Stuart, scratch that.  The irony of using a hydrogen
> first stage to lift a kerosene final stage, oh that is killing me...OK then.
> There is a bright side in all this somewhere, but the argument above is an
> epic fail, my apologies, sheesh how embarraskin...spike
>
> Stuart as I am pondering the problem of carrying humans to Mars, I am
> reminded of the ugliness of some of the solutions one must try.  Like that
> business of lifting a kerosene burning stage using a hydrogen burning stage
> for instance, from an engineering point of view, it is just uglier than
> nudist colony day at the nursing home.

Nothing to be embarrassed about, Spike. Hydrogen is the most abundant  
element in the universe and if we, as a civilization, want to climb  
the Kardashev Scale and reach the stars, then we will have to master  
the collection, storage, and applications of hydrogen. Diatomic  
hydrogen is a tricky little molecule, slips through the tiniest flaws  
in the crystal lattice of the matter that its container is made of. I  
am confident many smart people are working on this.

> The problem is based on the need to fire a delta V from earth orbit, then
> fire an orbit adjust burn when we get to Mars about 8 months later, then go
> play on the surface of Mars for a few days, then when (or if) the humans
> come back, you have another orbit adjust burn to get back to Earth, then
> another burn 8 months after that to insert into LEO to get ready for
> descent, then a descent initiation burn.
>
> OK so even if you had those huge first stage motors in LEO... you wouldn't
> use them.  Reason: there is no point in hauling all that stuff out to Mars
> where you can't use it because we have no known technology for holding onto
> liquid hydrogen for the 8 months it takes to get to Mars.  So... we need to
> haul low-volatility fuel oxidizer (because can't hang onto LOX that long
> either) so we get hydrazine and nitric acid thrusters for everything after
> we leave Earth orbit.

Long term storage of LOX might be made a bit easier by the fact that  
O2 is paramagnetic. Therefore we might be able to come up a with some  
form of powered LOX storage such as an electromagnetic bottle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB-qAwkgfFQ

> Oh what an ugly solution that is.

Hydrazine is toxic, unstable, and nasty but it seems to be a  
reasonable way to store hydrogen. I think hydrazine and LOX might be a  
good combo. Has anybody thought of using the nitrogen and hydrogen  
from Hydrazine decomposition as the propellant for nuclear rockets  
like NERVA? Evolution is often ugly and jury-rigged in its initial  
stages with elegance coming later. Besides beauty is in the eye of the  
beholder as they say.

Stuart LaForge





From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 19:50:20 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 12:50:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] silly yanks
In-Reply-To: <00db01d8c148$ef6ace70$ce406b50$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00db01d8c148$ef6ace70$ce406b50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <018201d8c160$bb5f0f20$321d2d60$@rainier66.com>

 

 

BillK, no particular significance, just having a little fun at our own expense (literal expense in this case.)

 

The big heat wave arrived, and the city is urging residents to turn up the thermostats, sit still don?t charge the numerous Teslas etc.

 

I walked past the local ballfield.  The floodlights are on, while the sun shines bright.  These are still the old halogen 270K type, so each bulb is 2500 watts.  No one is nearby (it?s too hot to play ball anyway.)

 

Each pole has 8 of these and there are 5 poles shining brightly into the daylight.  I am getting 100 kW to run those lights, so in round terms, this is somewhere around 100 residential homes on a typical day to light up a field in broad daylight, as they urge us to turn the thermostats warmer.  Our tax dollars at play.

 

Silly yanks, sheesh.  

 

spike

 



 



 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 19:56:29 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 12:56:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System
In-Reply-To: <20220905123415.Horde.k5um6KlAdpTAcDMPbG2R5-d@sollegro.com>
References: <20220905123415.Horde.k5um6KlAdpTAcDMPbG2R5-d@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <018a01d8c161$97090990$c51b1cb0$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Eyes on the Solar System


Quoting Spike,

-----Original Message-----
> From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> ...
>
>> ...On second thought, Stuart, scratch that.  The irony of using a 
>> hydrogen first stage to lift a kerosene final stage, oh that is killing
me...

>...Nothing to be embarrassed about, Spike. Hydrogen is the most abundant
element in the universe and if we, as a civilization, want to climb the
Kardashev Scale and reach the stars, then we will have to master the
collection, storage, and applications of hydrogen...

Ja, but we are nowhere near having the technology to collect the stuff on
orbit nor to hang onto it for 17 months (which is the time from leaving
Earth orbit to Earth orbit insertion.  It needs to be a storable propellant
and oxidizer.


>...Hydrazine is toxic, unstable, and nasty but it seems to be a reasonable
way to store hydrogen... Stuart LaForge

Ja, that hydrazine/nitric acid combination is standard current technology
for satellites which need to have a re-entry burn possibly years after
launch.  It is the only one I can see as practical for a Mars mission.  It's
ugly Stuart, just butt ugly.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 20:21:18 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 21:21:18 +0100
Subject: [ExI] silly yanks
In-Reply-To: <018201d8c160$bb5f0f20$321d2d60$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00db01d8c148$ef6ace70$ce406b50$@rainier66.com>
 <018201d8c160$bb5f0f20$321d2d60$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgS2mF4Jw8d7TDsCKZbx+5La3FvUeCNU67y=LEepQLPUQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 5 Sept 2022 at 20:52, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> BillK, no particular significance, just having a little fun at our own expense (literal expense in this case.)
>
> The big heat wave arrived, and the city is urging residents to turn up the thermostats, sit still don?t charge the numerous Teslas etc.
>
> I walked past the local ballfield.  The floodlights are on, while the sun shines bright.  These are still the old halogen 270K type, so each bulb is 2500 watts.  No one is nearby (it?s too hot to play ball anyway.)
> Each pole has 8 of these and there are 5 poles shining brightly into the daylight.  I am getting 100 kW to run those lights, so in round terms, this is somewhere around 100 residential homes on a typical day to light up a field in broad daylight, as they urge us to turn the thermostats warmer.  Our tax dollars at play.
>
> Silly yanks, sheesh.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Yes, that is something to bear in mind when converting all cars to
electric power.
The grid has to be able to handle the load and there must be
generating capacity available to feed into the grid.
And, of course, the grid must be maintained so that fallen cables
don't start wildfires.
As with all decisions, there are consequences, not all of which are foreseen.



BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 22:11:37 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 15:11:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] silly yanks
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgS2mF4Jw8d7TDsCKZbx+5La3FvUeCNU67y=LEepQLPUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
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 <CAL_armgS2mF4Jw8d7TDsCKZbx+5La3FvUeCNU67y=LEepQLPUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <001f01d8c174$781e5310$685af930$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] silly yanks

On Mon, 5 Sept 2022 at 20:52, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> BillK, no particular significance, just having a little fun at our own 
> expense (literal expense in this case.)
>
> The big heat wave arrived, and the city is urging residents to turn up the thermostats, sit still don?t charge the numerous Teslas etc.
>...  Our tax dollars at play... Silly yanks, sheesh.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...Yes, that is something to bear in mind when converting all cars to electric power.
The grid has to be able to handle the load and there must be generating capacity available to feed into the grid.
And, of course, the grid must be maintained so that fallen cables don't start wildfires.
As with all decisions, there are consequences, not all of which are foreseen.  BillK

_______________________________________________


Ja BillK, if nothing else, it should make Germany feel less silly, seeing the USA making the same mistakes: trying to transition to green power too quickly, and doing it via legislation rather than market forces.  We foresee failure.

For instance, most of us can see that eventually we will need nukes, a lot of them.  We know how long it takes to build those things, but that is under best-case conditions.  It is much harder to predict how long it takes if easily-imaginable what-ifs occur, such as... the French expertise in that field do not want to come to the states even for a temporary duty, so we can't get enough nuke engineers.  And what if... the no-nukes crowd is able to tie it up in court for years?  

It is easy enough for me to see that a lotta Tesla drivers will be told to not charge many, and perhaps most days.

spike



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 22:26:57 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 17:26:57 -0500
Subject: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
In-Reply-To: <00db01d8c148$ef6ace70$ce406b50$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00db01d8c148$ef6ace70$ce406b50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaEu24=btf2A5j55fsO5t4EME++ME9h-JUq_TB=4vL-7w@mail.gmail.com>

Great story!  We knew the restaurant as Shoney's
Big Boy     bill w

On Mon, Sep 5, 2022 at 12:02 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *?*> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] answer to little puzzle
>
>
>
> >?I have not had carbonated water in a long time?
>
>
>
> Good, that?s all the more for me.  {8^D
>
>
>
> >?Even diet soda is not good for you?
>
>
>
> So I am told.  My doctor suggests going light on it, but I guzzle the
> stuff like it is the staff of life.  Sigh.
>
> >>?It was at that Fat Boy?s that the What club came to have a slogan.  Fun
> story available on request.
>
>
>
> >?Always tell the stories - don't wait for my requests.   ?Seems like the
> Big Boy restaurant had another name but I cannot think of it.  bill w
>
>
>
> I too always thought it was the Fat Boy?s but I don?t know if it had
> another name.
>
>
>
> I went on Google maps to see if the building is still there.  It isn?t.
> Note a pawn shop with a painted-on sign just to the left of the green S.
> Washington street sign.  OK then.  If one is a bad guy, go to a different
> state.  Florida isn?t a sanctuary for that.
>
>
>
>
>
> My father was an officer in a local men?s club, Sertoma Titusville chapter
> (back in those days, there were only two genders, and clubs usually only
> had one (such primitive savages they were.))  The town was getting ready
> for its upcoming centennial celebration, so the men?s clubs got together
> and decided to have the men dress in 1867-ish.  Men wore beards in 1867
> when Titusville was founded, but in 1966, we heard of these undesirables
> known as ?hippies? who did likewise.  Titusville had never seen an actual
> ?hippy? in 1967 but we had heard of them.  The locals didn?t want to look
> like these ?hippies? so it was decided to dress like Abraham Lincoln.
> Yanks, take out your five dollar bills.  Like that.  Short neat beards,
> short-ish kinda neat hair, vest, ribbon tie, hat was optional.
>
>
>
> OK then, it was decided: the men?s clubs would dress like Lincoln,
> encourage all the men to grow a short neat beard.
>
>
>
> It caught on, and within a few weeks most of the local men, including the
> other men?s clubs, had the short neat beards.  Early January 1967, Sertoma
> was meeting at the Fat Boy?s to decide on a club slogan or motto.  They had
> their ideas and shared them freely in this raucous sports bar/restaurant.
> A man walked in alone, clean shaven, military crew cut.  He sat down at the
> bar and ordered a beer.  As the bartender brought his mug, the clatter died
> down to where it was quieter than a library with the only sounds being
> whispers.  The man turned around and said ?Whaaaaaat??
>
>
>
> Everybody laughed, and someone called out ?Good luck Colonel Grissom!?  He
> grinned and said ?Thanks!? He turned around and went back to drinking his
> beer.  Nobody bothered him.
>
>
>
> My father?s club, Sertoma Titusville chapter, decided that day on their
> club motto: What.
>
>
>
> You know what happened a few weeks later: Grissom didn?t have good luck.
> He and two others perished in the horrifying Apollo 1 fire.  His famous
> What quote went on the Sertoma ribbons and hatbands.  Not his more famous
> quote in which the non-public speaking Grissom made an entire speech to an
> aerospace company consisting of three words: Do good work.  Seems like ?Do
> good work? would have been a great Sertoma slogan considering the name of
> the organization is derived from SERvice TO MAnkind, but because of that
> incident in early January 1967, their chapter slogan was: What?
>
>
>
> Sertoma Titusville chapter made ribbons for the upcoming centennial
> celebration, which is why I have a photo of the club with most of the
> members having a What ribbon in their hatbands.  They had a secret club
> handshake: traditional shake followed by spreading the hands palms up as
> Grissom had done at the Fat Boy?s, with a hearty ?Whaaaat??
>
>
>
> That was life in the 1960s in that part of the world.  It was a marvelous
> place and time to cheerfully squander one?s tragically misspent youth.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Sep  5 22:29:14 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 17:29:14 -0500
Subject: [ExI] silly yanks
In-Reply-To: <001f01d8c174$781e5310$685af930$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaYTDWRwo5OrVaMVE6V0SEhU2Z=WLMV8tArf3UeQfikuA@mail.gmail.com>

And, of course, the grid must be maintained so that fallen cables don't
start wildfires.    Will someone explain to me why electrical cables are
not buried?   bill w

On Mon, Sep 5, 2022 at 5:13 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> ...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
> Subject: Re: [ExI] silly yanks
>
> On Mon, 5 Sept 2022 at 20:52, spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > BillK, no particular significance, just having a little fun at our own
> > expense (literal expense in this case.)
> >
> > The big heat wave arrived, and the city is urging residents to turn up
> the thermostats, sit still don?t charge the numerous Teslas etc.
> >...  Our tax dollars at play... Silly yanks, sheesh.
> >
> > spike
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> >...Yes, that is something to bear in mind when converting all cars to
> electric power.
> The grid has to be able to handle the load and there must be generating
> capacity available to feed into the grid.
> And, of course, the grid must be maintained so that fallen cables don't
> start wildfires.
> As with all decisions, there are consequences, not all of which are
> foreseen.  BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
> Ja BillK, if nothing else, it should make Germany feel less silly, seeing
> the USA making the same mistakes: trying to transition to green power too
> quickly, and doing it via legislation rather than market forces.  We
> foresee failure.
>
> For instance, most of us can see that eventually we will need nukes, a lot
> of them.  We know how long it takes to build those things, but that is
> under best-case conditions.  It is much harder to predict how long it takes
> if easily-imaginable what-ifs occur, such as... the French expertise in
> that field do not want to come to the states even for a temporary duty, so
> we can't get enough nuke engineers.  And what if... the no-nukes crowd is
> able to tie it up in court for years?
>
> It is easy enough for me to see that a lotta Tesla drivers will be told to
> not charge many, and perhaps most days.
>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 22:32:56 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 15:32:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] silly yanks
In-Reply-To: <001f01d8c174$781e5310$685af930$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
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 <001f01d8c174$781e5310$685af930$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <002501d8c177$726dff30$5749fd90$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
....  And what if... the no-nukes crowd is able to tie it up in court for years?  

>...It is easy enough for me to see that a lotta Tesla drivers will be told to not charge many, and perhaps most days...spike

And what if... the most important uranium ore sources are controlled by China?  We can see that most of Africa will likely become Chinese colonies in the foreseeable.

And what if... the US currency suffers what plenty of us see is already happening: the government is spending wildly and just printing more and more of the stuff.  So it is easy to foresee that the nuke builders want to be paid in BitCoin, but the investors aren't holding enough of it.  The plant doesn't get built.

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep  5 23:21:57 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 16:21:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] silly yanks
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaYTDWRwo5OrVaMVE6V0SEhU2Z=WLMV8tArf3UeQfikuA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZ1MpQLD0BLOZ5VxE5CTSkXa0CLFNDw5-HA9FyAwOSPyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <005101d8c081$b69630c0$23c29240$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYOjrbUTWQ1uFFwbewW4avLbCZ42T8HTYaoXtv4vsKyAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8c0c0$6e21eac0$4a65c040$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaqSs9fqbZOSddKgY48mZMep4TY+KJE_YL0wbc7DJmx=A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00db01d8c148$ef6ace70$ce406b50$@rainier66.com>
 <018201d8c160$bb5f0f20$321d2d60$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgS2mF4Jw8d7TDsCKZbx+5La3FvUeCNU67y=LEepQLPUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <001f01d8c174$781e5310$685af930$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEaYTDWRwo5OrVaMVE6V0SEhU2Z=WLMV8tArf3UeQfikuA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004d01d8c17e$4ba8bfa0$e2fa3ee0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat

Subject: Re: [ExI] silly yanks

 

And, of course, the grid must be maintained so that fallen cables don't start wildfires.    Will someone explain to me why electrical cables are not buried?   bill w

 

Because that costs a lotta money BillW.

 

They are being buried in a many places in California, but the current plan required a huge expensive fire being started by the utility company such that they were sued and had to pay jillions. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Fire_(2018)

 

Then of course the power company could just charge whatever it costs to pay out the judgment in addition to the cost of burying the powerlines.  They don?t care if they get sued, the costs are all passed right along.  The power company can?t go bankrupt: they have no competitors and we need their product.

 

Before the Camp Fire judgment the consumers would squawk if the power company spent money burying the lines, but after the consumers were given the bill for burning down all those homes in Paradise CA, then they could be given an additional bill for burying the lines.

 

If you get to feeling life isn?t being fair to you, check out this:

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=camp+fire+paradise+images&sxsrf=ALiCzsYVTfvPmXuvn8nwvzrtlVPms95HaA%3A1662419741321&source=hp&ei=HYMWY8uCEPXdkPIP69yn0AM&iflsig=AJiK0e8AAAAAYxaRLY0jxTJ1tC2PBLQfUIeNjslpJEDq&ved=0ahUKEwiLhZWR5P75AhX1LkQIHWvuCToQ4dUDCAo&uact=5&oq=camp+fire+paradise+images&gs_lcp=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&sclient=gws-wiz

 

Feel better about being you?  Same here.  I have two friends (an older couple) who survived that because they were away when it started, but their home didn?t.  They still own the property but have never rebuilt.  Probably won?t now: one is in his 80s and his wife will be soon.  A lifetime of collected memories were converted into a bad smell in one horrifying afternoon.

 

The power company is really a monopoly: we have only two choices: buy their power or don?t buy it.  If we don?t buy it, we must supply our own (and some do that (thanks again to Elon Musk.))  But to supply your own power costs a loooootta lotta money: you need a lot of solar cells, more than a typical roof has space for, you need energy storage such as Musk-ovite power wall (which is cool too (my neighbor has one and loves it (which he bought for only 23k (and has a useful life of over 12 years.)))

 

I did a life cycle cost estimate and realized he is paying more to generate and store part of his power usage that it costs to just buy the power from the monopoly company.  But he is anticipating shortages and dramatic cost increases for power, so he might get the last laugh.

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep  7 05:29:16 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2022 22:29:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] kalman filters are still dumb
Message-ID: <001001d8c27a$c6b2b9b0$54182d10$@rainier66.com>

 

 

Regarding our recent discussion in this forum regarding artificial
intelligence, I suggested that if a Kalman filter is set up to make
predictions based on figuring out which of 1000 or more metrics are the 50
most significant, then it seems like we should agree that the software is
intelligent: it is going thru and finding an optimal solution, then
considers the top 50 observable metrics to predict something such as drought
in Europe based on accumulated cyclonic energy and other factors.

 

Now, after that discussion, I think we are best off comparing that Kalman
filter to chess.  Computers play great chess, which is a game about
predicting your opponent's next move.  It doesn't require intelligence to
play chess, since chess is a specialized form of computation.

 

Likewise, we can think of the weather predicting Kalman filter as a
specialized form of computation, clearly a really cool one which results in
the ability to predict weather very accurately but still not AI.  I will
stop whining about moving goal posts in the Kalman filter case.

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep  7 12:39:59 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 05:39:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] three insanely cool rocket videos
Message-ID: <003801d8c2b6$f1a4dea0$d4ee9be0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn5HxXKQOjw

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su9EVeHqizY

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ380rPYE4Q

 

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep  7 15:07:40 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 08:07:40 -0700
Subject: [ExI] three insanely cool rocket videos
In-Reply-To: <003801d8c2b6$f1a4dea0$d4ee9be0$@rainier66.com>
References: <003801d8c2b6$f1a4dea0$d4ee9be0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <008001d8c2cb$935aa310$ba0fe930$@rainier66.com>

 

On second link showing the transparent rockets, if you viewed those you
might have already realized they showed the different kinds of propellant
with different colors.  The solids were shown as granulated, the hydrogen is
yellow, the LOX is blue, the kerosene is red.

 

Very cool.  I learned something new about the Falcon Heavy: I didn't realize
it accelerates harder than the others.  This has impact on the payload
design.

 

spike

 

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Sent: Wednesday, 7 September, 2022 5:40 AM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: spike at rainier66.com
Subject: three insanely cool rocket videos

 

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn5HxXKQOjw

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su9EVeHqizY

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ380rPYE4Q

 

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Sep  7 15:40:58 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 16:40:58 +0100
Subject: [ExI] kalman filters are still dumb
In-Reply-To: <001001d8c27a$c6b2b9b0$54182d10$@rainier66.com>
References: <001001d8c27a$c6b2b9b0$54182d10$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgGMh7c+5Cj2BFXctvmnYeJ_iPAz31yUOt_RkitOaRTUQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, 7 Sept 2022 at 06:32, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
<snip>
>
> Now, after that discussion, I think we are best off comparing that Kalman filter to chess.  Computers play great chess, which is a game about predicting your opponent?s next move.  It doesn?t require intelligence to play chess, since chess is a specialized form of computation.
>
> Likewise, we can think of the weather predicting Kalman filter as a specialized form of computation, clearly a really cool one which results in the ability to predict weather very accurately but still not AI.  I will stop whining about moving goal posts in the Kalman filter case.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Hmmmm.... Well, yes, with possible exceptions.  :)
There appear to be two types of chess players.
One is the methodical, studious type who memorises openings, mid-game
positions and end-game theory and slowly grinds their way to a win.
The other type has a creative talent and plays outside the book, like
Mikhail Tal.
Both types can reach grand-master status, but some of Tal's games make
mortals go 'Wow!' and shake their head in amazement.
Chess is not always just memory work and calculation.

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep  7 16:22:28 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 09:22:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cool rocket porn
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgGMh7c+5Cj2BFXctvmnYeJ_iPAz31yUOt_RkitOaRTUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <001001d8c27a$c6b2b9b0$54182d10$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgGMh7c+5Cj2BFXctvmnYeJ_iPAz31yUOt_RkitOaRTUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00bd01d8c2d6$06567970$13036c50$@rainier66.com>


This is a fun one if you have a few minutes to invest in a video.

There's a mistake just after 3 minutes 30.  Did you catch it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgT9-oMXgCU

Since NASA went ahead and built the Artemis in spite of my objections, might as well get to know it and do your best to embrace the dang thing, like a sleazy tattooed dope head son in law you didn't want and didn't like but you got him anyway.  Live with it, move on.

spike




From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep  7 16:38:53 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 09:38:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] cool rocket porn
In-Reply-To: <00bd01d8c2d6$06567970$13036c50$@rainier66.com>
References: <001001d8c27a$c6b2b9b0$54182d10$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgGMh7c+5Cj2BFXctvmnYeJ_iPAz31yUOt_RkitOaRTUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00bd01d8c2d6$06567970$13036c50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <00c601d8c2d8$5163a940$f42afbc0$@rainier66.com>


In addition to the heat wave, they are having a huge dust storm out at Burning Man.  Perhaps the misery index was not already high enough.

If you have never been in a desert dust storm, I have some advice for you.  Don't go there:

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/burning-man-dust-storm-nearly-foils-main-event

...unless...

Unless you are diagnosed with something the medics can't solve and you are afraid of dying, you can't cope with it.  No worries, we understand, we would be that way too, and likely will be at some point.

So... here's what you do: go out to the desert during one of these dust storms.  Sit there.  After an hour of that, you're good, no more fear of death, you're ready to go.  You would like to wash away the grindy grit in your teeth first, but after that, ready to move on.

spike





From brent.allsop at gmail.com  Thu Sep  8 03:46:58 2022
From: brent.allsop at gmail.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 21:46:58 -0600
Subject: [ExI] three insanely cool rocket videos
In-Reply-To: <008001d8c2cb$935aa310$ba0fe930$@rainier66.com>
References: <003801d8c2b6$f1a4dea0$d4ee9be0$@rainier66.com>
 <008001d8c2cb$935aa310$ba0fe930$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAK7-onvdBsWg2DVnQpfCvN4VJZtLDTMC5x3pyHMg6c0Hrtgq2A@mail.gmail.com>

Very interesting.  Thanks.


On Wed, Sep 7, 2022 at 9:08 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> On second link showing the transparent rockets, if you viewed those you
> might have already realized they showed the different kinds of propellant
> with different colors.  The solids were shown as granulated, the hydrogen
> is yellow, the LOX is blue, the kerosene is red.
>
>
>
> Very cool.  I learned something new about the Falcon Heavy: I didn?t
> realize it accelerates harder than the others.  This has impact on the
> payload design.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, 7 September, 2022 5:40 AM
> *To:* 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Cc:* spike at rainier66.com
> *Subject:* three insanely cool rocket videos
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn5HxXKQOjw
>
>
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su9EVeHqizY
>
>
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ380rPYE4Q
>
>
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep 10 15:23:12 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 08:23:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
Message-ID: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>

 

 

Hmmmm. I had stopped worrying while we had two hurricanes blowing in the
Atlantic, but Danielle just unexpectedly fizzled, so now we only have Earl
left out there, and it isn't as impressive as we had hoped.

 

If we look at accumulated cyclonic energy, 2022 is a little less than half
the average for the past 56 years, but this year is no longer the record
holder for the quietest year at this date, which is just past the peak of
storm season.

 

A fun thought occurred to me.  A hurricane moves across the sea surface at
the average speed of the surface winds, but the water she blows into the
atmosphere moves way faster.  By that reasoning, moisture from Earl should
be arriving in Europe by now.

 

BillK, are ye lads getting any relief from the heat at drought?

 

spike

 

 



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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Sep 10 17:16:00 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 18:16:00 +0100
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>
References: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, 10 Sept 2022 at 16:26, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Hmmmm? I had stopped worrying while we had two hurricanes blowing in the Atlantic, but Danielle just unexpectedly fizzled, so now we only have Earl left out there, and it isn?t as impressive as we had hoped.
>
> If we look at accumulated cyclonic energy, 2022 is a little less than half the average for the past 56 years, but this year is no longer the record holder for the quietest year at this date, which is just past the peak of storm season.
>
> A fun thought occurred to me.  A hurricane moves across the sea surface at the average speed of the surface winds, but the water she blows into the atmosphere moves way faster.  By that reasoning, moisture from Earl should be arriving in Europe by now.
>
> BillK, are ye lads getting any relief from the heat at drought?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Yup. There's been a slow-moving LOW over UK this week, so some rain every day.
Next week is a bit less rain, but a stormy start to the week.
The grass is going green again, as we get the late summer weather.

I notice south California is getting soaked from a Pacific storm.

BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep 10 18:08:34 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 13:08:34 -0500
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZoT+Q8NG+wG-MX3wAazXn6QFwuoA9=k+puKJS2aU8yTg@mail.gmail.com>

How is this for predicting the weather?  Last night my Apple Watch told
me:  'rain stopping in 9 minutes and then starting again in 33 minutes'

was too occupied to check out their? predictions  bill w

On Sat, Sep 10, 2022 at 12:18 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Sat, 10 Sept 2022 at 16:26, spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Hmmmm? I had stopped worrying while we had two hurricanes blowing in the
> Atlantic, but Danielle just unexpectedly fizzled, so now we only have Earl
> left out there, and it isn?t as impressive as we had hoped.
> >
> > If we look at accumulated cyclonic energy, 2022 is a little less than
> half the average for the past 56 years, but this year is no longer the
> record holder for the quietest year at this date, which is just past the
> peak of storm season.
> >
> > A fun thought occurred to me.  A hurricane moves across the sea surface
> at the average speed of the surface winds, but the water she blows into the
> atmosphere moves way faster.  By that reasoning, moisture from Earl should
> be arriving in Europe by now.
> >
> > BillK, are ye lads getting any relief from the heat at drought?
> >
> > spike
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> Yup. There's been a slow-moving LOW over UK this week, so some rain every
> day.
> Next week is a bit less rain, but a stormy start to the week.
> The grass is going green again, as we get the late summer weather.
>
> I notice south California is getting soaked from a Pacific storm.
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 11 02:11:42 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 19:11:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00d101d8c583$d68e0950$83aa1bf0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] oh no, not this again...

 

On Sat, 10 Sept 2022 at 16:26, spike jones via extropy-chat < <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> 

>... Hmmmm? I had stopped worrying while we had two hurricanes blowing in the Atlantic, but Danielle just unexpectedly fizzled, so now we only have Earl left out there, and it isn?t as impressive as we had hoped.

> 

> ...

>>... BillK, are ye lads getting any relief from the heat at drought?

> 

> spike

> _______________________________________________

 

 

>...Yup. There's been a slow-moving LOW over UK this week, so some rain every day.

Next week is a bit less rain, but a stormy start to the week.

The grass is going green again, as we get the late summer weather.

 

I notice south California is getting soaked from a Pacific storm.

 

BillK

 

_______________________________________________

 

 

Hi BillK, well dang.  They just did a fresh update.  Earl has broken up.  It's a failure.  A flimsy excuse for a European watering device.

 

There's something else that worries me even more.  You see where Earl is now downgraded to a post-tropical storm remnant, but there is nothing else out there.

 

Today was peak season for hurricanes.  In the average year, half of the year?s hurricanes have happened by 10 September.  We had five so far, three storms and two hurricanes, but none of them had any enthusiasm or sincerity.  The accumulated energy is less than half where we should be but now that curve will flatten out for at least 3 to 5 days, when it should be as steep as it will get for the year.

 

 



 

OK so? what?s it mean?  I fear it will mean a really dry autumn in Europe and probably lousy crop yields.  But something else doesn?t fit: hurricanes are supposed to go way up when sea surface temperatures are warm.  They are at record high temperatures (if you take an average) but these storms fizzled.

 

San Diego California didn?t get much of anything out of the storm either.

 

I doesn?t understands it.

 

spike

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From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep 11 04:06:48 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 21:06:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Time lapse film of exploding star
Message-ID: <20220910210648.Horde.H5F-Rk2-TuYTHaALCtXuQWH@sollegro.com>


This is a very short time lapse video of a supernova's light echo in  
the galaxy Centaurus A as seen by the Hubble space telescope.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/geckzilla/49521695336/

I don't have much to say about it, other than stuff like this is  
definitely one of the perks of living in the 3rd millennium AD. Vive  
las humanit?!

Stuart LaForge



From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 11 04:25:29 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 21:25:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Time lapse film of exploding star
In-Reply-To: <20220910210648.Horde.H5F-Rk2-TuYTHaALCtXuQWH@sollegro.com>
References: <20220910210648.Horde.H5F-Rk2-TuYTHaALCtXuQWH@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <00f301d8c596$878caf60$96a60e20$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] Time lapse film of exploding star


>...This is a very short time lapse video of a supernova's light echo in the galaxy Centaurus A as seen by the Hubble space telescope.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/geckzilla/49521695336/

>...I don't have much to say about it, other than stuff like this is definitely one of the perks of living in the 3rd millennium AD. Vive las humanit?!

Stuart LaForge


_______________________________________________


Thanks for that Stuart.  Indeed this is the greatest time of all to be living if one is into astronomy.  The astonished Webb images, the completely mind-blowing LIGO results, oh my goodness.  Regarding the LIGO results: I just can't imagine how the heavens there are still sooooo many of those mergers this long after the big bang.  

I have never been so wrong as I was about that prediction, but I am in good company.  (Well, I was wronger about Tesla, passing up multiple opportunities to buy at 2 bucks a share.)  A lot of us read the pros and cons and pretty much uniformly guessed we would be dang lucky if there was even one event in the next century.  I estimated 5% chance of a detectable merger in my lifetime.  We have had 22 strong mergers in the past 6 years with the device up and running only a little less than half the time, and a long list of candidate events.

I am still baffled with regard to how there could still be so many of them.  Where does all the angular momentum go?  Stuart is that blowing your mind too?  I remember spending several weeks pondering that and doing calculations, got nowhere at all, not a cm closer to understanding.

spike





From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Sep 11 08:51:27 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 09:51:27 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Time lapse film of exploding star
In-Reply-To: <00f301d8c596$878caf60$96a60e20$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220910210648.Horde.H5F-Rk2-TuYTHaALCtXuQWH@sollegro.com>
 <00f301d8c596$878caf60$96a60e20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armit6u9mymLgtR2ShQsias85hHXzzbD0Vwyk0VD-83Z69g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, 11 Sept 2022 at 05:27, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Thanks for that Stuart.  Indeed this is the greatest time of all to be living if one is into astronomy.  The astonished Webb images, the completely mind-blowing LIGO results, oh my goodness.  Regarding the LIGO results: I just can't imagine how the heavens there are still sooooo many of those mergers this long after the big bang.
>
> I have never been so wrong as I was about that prediction, but I am in good company.  (Well, I was wronger about Tesla, passing up multiple opportunities to buy at 2 bucks a share.)  A lot of us read the pros and cons and pretty much uniformly guessed we would be dang lucky if there was even one event in the next century.  I estimated 5% chance of a detectable merger in my lifetime.  We have had 22 strong mergers in the past 6 years with the device up and running only a little less than half the time, and a long list of candidate events.
>
> I am still baffled with regard to how there could still be so many of them.  Where does all the angular momentum go?  Stuart is that blowing your mind too?  I remember spending several weeks pondering that and doing calculations, got nowhere at all, not a cm closer to understanding.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Wikipedia says angular momentum is radiated away by the gravitational waves.

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave>

Quote:
Energy, momentum, and angular momentum
Water waves, sound waves, and electromagnetic waves are able to carry
energy, momentum, and angular momentum and by doing so they carry
those away from the source. Gravitational waves perform the same
function. Thus, for example, a binary system loses angular momentum as
the two orbiting objects spiral towards each other?the angular
momentum is radiated away by gravitational waves.
-----------

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 11 14:25:05 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 07:25:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Time lapse film of exploding star
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armit6u9mymLgtR2ShQsias85hHXzzbD0Vwyk0VD-83Z69g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20220910210648.Horde.H5F-Rk2-TuYTHaALCtXuQWH@sollegro.com>
 <00f301d8c596$878caf60$96a60e20$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armit6u9mymLgtR2ShQsias85hHXzzbD0Vwyk0VD-83Z69g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004f01d8c5ea$49dc8ec0$dd95ac40$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
...
>
>> I am still baffled with regard to how there could still be so many of them.  Where does all the angular momentum go?  Stuart is that blowing your mind too?  I remember spending several weeks pondering that and doing calculations, got nowhere at all, not a cm closer to understanding.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Wikipedia says angular momentum is radiated away by the gravitational waves.

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave>

Quote:
Energy, momentum, and angular momentum
>...?the angular momentum is radiated away by gravitational waves.
-----------

BillK

_______________________________________________


Ja BillK, but if you do the calculations on that it seems like it would take trillions of years in most cases for all the momentum to be radiated away in gravitational waves, unless those black holes somehow formed dang close together to start with (how?) or the angular momentum was canceled up from enormous accretion discs (where did those come from?) as the black holes grew from matter in the disk.  This latter is the only thing I can imagine: our models of how much stuff was available in the old days are wrong.  There must have been a lot more stuff in the old days to make those black holes form close together and grow really big. Heh.  That's an exciting possibility: the standard model is wrong.

None of the models I can imagine fit very well with this many merger events, and none of them which had been proposed before the instrument was turned on suggested there would be this many, even within a coupla orders of magnitude.  As I recall, the most optimistic LIGO promoter agreed  we would be lucky to see an event in any given decade, but felt it was worth building anyway, for a negative result is a result.

Well now.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Sep 11 15:18:04 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 16:18:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <00d101d8c583$d68e0950$83aa1bf0$@rainier66.com>
References: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d101d8c583$d68e0950$83aa1bf0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armj6K9nJAqPGakR9mVk318FGCR_gDWEQ4g0DmmYdb35qEQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, 11 Sept 2022 at 03:14, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Hi BillK, well dang.  They just did a fresh update.  Earl has broken up.  It's a failure.  A flimsy excuse for a European watering device.
>
> There's something else that worries me even more.  You see where Earl is now downgraded to a post-tropical storm remnant, but there is nothing else out there.
> Today was peak season for hurricanes.  In the average year, half of the year?s hurricanes have happened by 10 September.  We had five so far, three storms and two hurricanes, but none of them had any enthusiasm or sincerity.  The accumulated energy is less than half where we should be but now that curve will flatten out for at least 3 to 5 days, when it should be as steep as it will get for the year.
>
> OK so? what?s it mean?  I fear it will mean a really dry autumn in Europe and probably lousy crop yields.  But something else doesn?t fit: hurricanes are supposed to go way up when sea surface temperatures are warm.  They are at record high temperatures (if you take an average) but these storms fizzled.
>
> San Diego California didn?t get much of anything out of the storm either.
>
> I doesn?t understands it.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Ars Technica has a worry about this also.

<https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/this-should-be-the-absolute-peak-of-hurricane-season-but-its-dead-quiet-out-there/>

They speculate.....
So what has happened this year to cause a quiet season, at least so
far? A detailed analysis will have to wait until after the season, but
to date we've seen a lot of dust in the atmosphere, which has choked
off the formation of storms. Additionally, upper-level winds in the
atmosphere have generally been hostile to storm formation?basically
shearing off the top of any developing tropical systems.
--------------

I suspect this is a weather man saying, 'Your guess is as good as mine'.  :)

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Sep 11 16:22:36 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 17:22:36 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Time lapse film of exploding star
In-Reply-To: <004f01d8c5ea$49dc8ec0$dd95ac40$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220910210648.Horde.H5F-Rk2-TuYTHaALCtXuQWH@sollegro.com>
 <00f301d8c596$878caf60$96a60e20$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armit6u9mymLgtR2ShQsias85hHXzzbD0Vwyk0VD-83Z69g@mail.gmail.com>
 <004f01d8c5ea$49dc8ec0$dd95ac40$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiAs0=LntOjQPqGqBJEfu+7=8vJ=KRO8zvfzpe1tixEGg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, 11 Sept 2022 at 15:27, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Ja BillK, but if you do the calculations on that it seems like it would take trillions of years in most cases for all the momentum to be radiated away in gravitational waves, unless those black holes somehow formed dang close together to start with (how?) or the angular momentum was canceled up from enormous accretion discs (where did those come from?) as the black holes grew from matter in the disk.  This latter is the only thing I can imagine: our models of how much stuff was available in the old days are wrong.  There must have been a lot more stuff in the old days to make those black holes form close together and grow really big. Heh.  That's an exciting possibility: the standard model is wrong.
>
> None of the models I can imagine fit very well with this many merger events, and none of them which had been proposed before the instrument was turned on suggested there would be this many, even within a coupla orders of magnitude.  As I recall, the most optimistic LIGO promoter agreed  we would be lucky to see an event in any given decade, but felt it was worth building anyway, for a negative result is a result.
>
> Well now.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Well, I am far out of my depth now in this discussion,  :)   but there
seem to be many papers around agreeing with Wikipedia.
Gravitational waves are slowly radiating energy and momentum away as
the orbiting pair gradually move closer together.
The final 'chirp' that LIGO detected is the end of a long process.
This long pdf about gravitational waves seems to know what it is talking about.
(Which is lucky, 'cause I don't!).  :)

<http://www.physics.usu.edu/Wheeler/GenRel2013/Notes/GravitationalWaves.pdf>

BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Sep 11 16:45:39 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 11:45:39 -0500
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <00d101d8c583$d68e0950$83aa1bf0$@rainier66.com>
References: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d101d8c583$d68e0950$83aa1bf0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYsthMV09xCdyy6d9yhjbctMQEN97qcRw6F72R6gubCVw@mail.gmail.com>

It's been wonderful since Sept 1, almost as if the weather knew it was time
to change - mid to low 80s and enough rain to suit me.  A fella told me
that around here, July was the hottest month and that has proved true.  I
am used to Sept being about as hot as Aug.  Am opening the front and back
doors so the cats can run around in and out.  PLanting Sugar Snap peas in
hopes of a good year - 1/3 is good.  So expensive in the markets.   bill w

On Sat, Sep 10, 2022 at 9:14 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
> BillK via extropy-chat
> Subject: Re: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
>
>
>
> On Sat, 10 Sept 2022 at 16:26, spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> >
>
> >... Hmmmm? I had stopped worrying while we had two hurricanes blowing in
> the Atlantic, but Danielle just unexpectedly fizzled, so now we only have
> Earl left out there, and it isn?t as impressive as we had hoped.
>
> >
>
> > ...
>
> >>... BillK, are ye lads getting any relief from the heat at drought?
>
> >
>
> > spike
>
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
>
>
>
> >...Yup. There's been a slow-moving LOW over UK this week, so some rain
> every day.
>
> Next week is a bit less rain, but a stormy start to the week.
>
> The grass is going green again, as we get the late summer weather.
>
>
>
> I notice south California is getting soaked from a Pacific storm.
>
>
>
> BillK
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
>
>
>
> Hi BillK, well dang.  They just did a fresh update.  Earl has broken up.
> It's a failure.  A flimsy excuse for a European watering device.
>
>
>
> There's something else that worries me even more.  You see where Earl is
> now downgraded to a post-tropical storm remnant, but there is nothing else
> out there.
>
>
>
> Today was peak season for hurricanes.  In the average year, half of the
> year?s hurricanes have happened by 10 September.  We had five so far, three
> storms and two hurricanes, but none of them had any enthusiasm or
> sincerity.  The accumulated energy is less than half where we should be but
> now that curve will flatten out for at least 3 to 5 days, when it should be
> as steep as it will get for the year.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> OK so? what?s it mean?  I fear it will mean a really dry autumn in Europe
> and probably lousy crop yields.  But something else doesn?t fit: hurricanes
> are supposed to go way up when sea surface temperatures are warm.  They are
> at record high temperatures (if you take an average) but these storms
> fizzled.
>
>
>
> San Diego California didn?t get much of anything out of the storm either.
>
>
>
> I doesn?t understands it.
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 11 16:53:46 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 09:53:46 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Time lapse film of exploding star
In-Reply-To: <004f01d8c5ea$49dc8ec0$dd95ac40$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220910210648.Horde.H5F-Rk2-TuYTHaALCtXuQWH@sollegro.com>
 <00f301d8c596$878caf60$96a60e20$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armit6u9mymLgtR2ShQsias85hHXzzbD0Vwyk0VD-83Z69g@mail.gmail.com>
 <004f01d8c5ea$49dc8ec0$dd95ac40$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <00b001d8c5ff$0f5e72d0$2e1b5870$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 


>... the only thing I can imagine: our models of how much stuff was available in the old days are wrong.  There must have been a lot more stuff in the old days to make those black holes form close together and grow really big. Heh.  That's an exciting possibility: the standard model is wrong... spike


BillK, what if... dark matter does interact with matter but only under certain special-case conditions?  Suppose that dark matter does something somehow to carry off angular momentum in an interaction we can't see now because it doesn't happen often enough.  But back in the old days when these black hole mergers were happening that we are detecting now, perhaps one part per trillion of dark matter does somehow... I don't know, bounce off of a hydrogen nucleus?  

Or what if... since we know that dark matter does behave the same as matter gravitationally, that a clump of dark matter could be sucked up and dragged along with a sufficiently dense gravitational field such as a neutron star or black hole, then the dark matter eats up the angular momentum by transferring the momentum to itself.  Then right at the last part of the merger event, which is the part we detect with LIGO...  there is no remaining anomalous dark matter additional angular momentum loss because by that time, because the two black holes have already eaten all the dark matter in the neighborhood.  They ate the evidence by then.

By that notion, the end game of a black hole merger would look exactly the way it does, where warping of space-time drains off the last of angular momentum, but in earlier epochs, it was drained off by dark matter.

OK then, I realize that is a wacky idea and I have never seen it proposed by a sane person, but if it turns out to be right, remember you heard it first right here.

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 11 17:00:37 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 10:00:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armj6K9nJAqPGakR9mVk318FGCR_gDWEQ4g0DmmYdb35qEQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002e01d8c529$3e111eb0$ba335c10$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjUrBZ109GJ3utLzMqRmnE8vsOQ82VqEfWOzKwe9YEU-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d101d8c583$d68e0950$83aa1bf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armj6K9nJAqPGakR9mVk318FGCR_gDWEQ4g0DmmYdb35qEQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00b101d8c600$048abb10$0da03130$@rainier66.com>

 

?> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] oh no, not this again...

 

On Sun, 11 Sept 2022 at 03:14, spike jones via extropy-chat < <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> 

> Hi BillK, well dang.  They just did a fresh update.  Earl has broken up.  It's a failure.  A flimsy excuse for a European watering device.

?

> 

>>? I doesn?t understands it.

> 

> spike

> _______________________________________________

 

 

Ars Technica has a worry about this also.

 

< <https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/this-should-be-the-absolute-peak-of-hurricane-season-but-its-dead-quiet-out-there/> https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/this-should-be-the-absolute-peak-of-hurricane-season-but-its-dead-quiet-out-there/>

 

They speculate.....

>?So what has happened this year to cause a quiet season, at least so far? A detailed analysis will have to wait ?

--------------

 

>?I suspect this is a weather man saying, 'Your guess is as good as mine'.  :)

 

BillK

 

 

 

Ja, BillK we never thought we would see this comment on the peak of storm season:

 

 



 

Oy vey.

 

spike

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From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep 11 18:26:25 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 11:26:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
Message-ID: <20220911112625.Horde.LJw80_b7umbbTPuJiGPmDab@sollegro.com>


Quoting BillK:

> Ars Technica has a worry about this also.
>
> <https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/this-should-be-the-absolute-peak-of-hurricane-season-but-its-dead-quiet-out-there/>
>
> They speculate.....
> So what has happened this year to cause a quiet season, at least so
> far? A detailed analysis will have to wait until after the season, but
> to date we've seen a lot of dust in the atmosphere, which has choked
> off the formation of storms. Additionally, upper-level winds in the
> atmosphere have generally been hostile to storm formation?basically
> shearing off the top of any developing tropical systems.
> --------------
>
> I suspect this is a weather man saying, 'Your guess is as good as mine'.  :)
>
> BillK

I suspect that all the water vapor still in the stratosphere from the  
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha?apai volcano on Jan. 15, 2022 is largely  
responsible:

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere

All that humidity is the atmosphere is unprecedented and is probably  
equilibrating ocean and air temperatures to a certain degree, prevent  
cyclones.

Although BillK fanning himself to keep cool across the Atlantic might  
also be contributing via the butterfly effect. ;)

Stuart LaForge





From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 11 19:04:49 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2022 12:04:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <20220911112625.Horde.LJw80_b7umbbTPuJiGPmDab@sollegro.com>
References: <20220911112625.Horde.LJw80_b7umbbTPuJiGPmDab@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <000401d8c611$5e31b810$1a952830$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
...

>...I suspect that all the water vapor still in the stratosphere from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha?apai volcano on Jan. 15, 2022 is largely
responsible:

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere

Ja Stuart perhaps there is a great deal of humidity up there however...

>...All that humidity is the atmosphere is unprecedented and is probably equilibrating ocean and air temperatures to a certain degree, prevent cyclones...

...that would be a compelling theory except that Atlantic sea surface temperatures this fall are not cooler, they are warmer.  This in theory should have be a very active hurricane season according to long-accepted theory.

All of this is what caused me to think of Kalman filtering with respect to weather prediction.  If a correlation is discovered between two measurable metrics, such as sea surface temperature and hurricane activity, we humans immediately think of cause and effect.  Perhaps increased carbon dioxide is causing increased sea surface temperature which caused increase accumulated cyclonic energy.

However... correlation coefficients do not tell us what caused what.  Those coefficients don't know or care which came first, only that the chicken and the egg are associated with each other.  This year, the correlation between sea surface temperature and storm activity is going down.  There will still be a correlation, but it will be lower than before 2022.

>...Although BillK fanning himself to keep cool across the Atlantic might also be contributing via the butterfly effect. ;)  Stuart LaForge
_______________________________________________


Eh Stuart, do think over what the notion of the butterfly effect has done to our collective reasoning.  It is a fun mental picture, memorable in its way, but the way it is stated causes us to misunderstand what it really means.  The butterfly effect is about how a seemingly minor event has ever-larger implications as time goes on, so that a butterfly today can influence the future 1000 years from now.

But if you ask a bunch of proles what the butterfly effect means, you will see why it causes me to squirm a bit.

spike



From avant at sollegro.com  Tue Sep 13 03:56:01 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2022 20:56:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <mailman.201.1662915653.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <20220912205601.Horde.8dav1mAIMXFWODlL_hVvx-A@sollegro.com>


Quoting Spike:

> ...that would be a compelling theory except that Atlantic sea  
> surface temperatures this fall are not cooler, they > are warmer.   
> This in theory should have be a very active hurricane season  
> according to long-accepted theory.

I am by no means an expert on the weather, but the standard  
explanation for hurricanes doesn't make sense. The high temperature of  
the sea surface can't drive a hurricane by itself, it needs a  
temperature gradient from the ocean surface to the top of the  
convection cell. It doesn't matter how warm the surface temps are if  
the upper atmosphere is too warm to get a good convective flow going.  
I don't have solid data, but during the volcanic eruption, the  
stratosphere had its moisture content increased by 10% in a few  
seconds in the form of superheated steam. The oceans surface is a  
little warmer this year, but the atmosphere is also warmer. Less of a  
temperature gradient means less convection means fewer storms and no  
hurricanes.

But like I said, I am just broadly applying fluid dynamics to the  
situation, I am not a meteorologist.

Stuart LaForge



From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Sep 13 09:20:19 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2022 10:20:19 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Humans in space need artificial gravity
Message-ID: <CAL_armjDL=KZ6K7Ad5xF0=7PUGdL7=F_LJaDcdjKezED8J9xWQ@mail.gmail.com>

Aboard the International Space Station (ISS), astronauts rely on a
strict regimen of exercise and resistance training to mitigate the
physiological effects. These include muscle atrophy, bone density
loss, organ function, eyesight, and effects on cardiovascular health,
gene expression, and the central nervous system. But as a recent NASA
study revealed, long-duration missions to Mars and other locations in
deep space will need to be equipped with artificial gravity.

<https://www.universetoday.com/157510/want-to-stay-healthy-in-space-then-you-want-artificial-gravity/>

NASA is currently investigating centrifuges and artificial gravity for
space stations and missions to deep space. Examples include the NASA
concept study titled ?Non-Atmospheric Universal Transport Intended for
Lengthy United States Exploration? (NAUTILUS-X), a rotating
torus-shaped module that would provide artificial gravity.
As NASA and other space agencies send astronauts to the Moon (to stay
this time) and pursue crewed missions to Mars and beyond, artificial
gravity may become a regular feature of spacecraft, space stations,
and even surface habitats.
------------------

Leaving Earth long-term is really difficult for humans.

BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Sep 13 19:02:38 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2022 14:02:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] evolution of morality
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaw_XspX6y57=PV6VfhFCCPEL3GYr8OD0jy+5-wufvzFw@mail.gmail.com>

Even those of us who don't know much of history, like myself, know of
horrible practices (as we see them today) that people loved in the past,
such as public hangings, burning at the stake, drawing and quartering,
people being eaten by lions and more and more.

Does anyone here think that any of these will become widely popular in the
future? I cannot see it.  Clearly human nature has not evolved, but
morality has, and such things as tolerance of homosexuality and intolerance
of pedophilia will increase and not retrogress.

This is all bottom up: no authorities have made rules or laws that require
us to change our minds about morality,  This is evolution.   bill w
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From brent.allsop at gmail.com  Tue Sep 13 19:23:13 2022
From: brent.allsop at gmail.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2022 13:23:13 -0600
Subject: [ExI] evolution of morality
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaw_XspX6y57=PV6VfhFCCPEL3GYr8OD0jy+5-wufvzFw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEaw_XspX6y57=PV6VfhFCCPEL3GYr8OD0jy+5-wufvzFw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAK7-onvqsYc15Cd4ePHcZtGJwH7GhCELA36Ktt_JGxRs+mx+BQ@mail.gmail.com>

Hi William

On Tue, Sep 13, 2022 at 1:04 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> This is all bottom up: no authorities have made rules or laws that require
> us to change our minds about morality,  This is evolution.   bill w
>

Yes, exactly.  Even if someone believes in infallible morality addicted
hierarchically from on high, like trumpites (trump tells them when america
is great again), they are the ones that need to decide to follow that.
Notice that type of morality is infallible.  If you see something obviously
bad, like much of what Trump says, the answer is something like: "God's
ways are not Man's ways."  But, those peoples beliefs can still be
'falsified' usually when you put them on the demonizing side of what Trump
or God is declaring.

It seems to me that morality should fundamentally be based on what people
want.  The 'right' actions are the ones that get the most people the most
of what they want.  That is why we need to build and track consensus around
what everyone wants, and what everyone believes is morality.  And you
should be able to track how that changes, over time.  That which you
measure, improves.  Hmmm, won't it be great when more people use a system
that can do all that, so we will finally have a trusted source of good
moral information we can track over time?  Naa, let's just keep doing
nothing but bleating and tweeting all the "fake news" eternally.
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Sep 14 20:22:24 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 15:22:24 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Eat more fish: the most climate-friendly and nutritious
 options compared to meat
In-Reply-To: <2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d.d520e39c16.20220914173507.230fff92a6.30d04ec9@mail241.suw18.rsgsv.net>
References: <2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d.d520e39c16.20220914173507.230fff92a6.30d04ec9@mail241.suw18.rsgsv.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEY6QRSG+CO=KyoTc2L2rUEtrDaemOK7LMX5VYVAARS9VA@mail.gmail.com>

useful chart

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Nature Briefing <briefing at nature.com>
Date: Wed, Sep 14, 2022 at 12:46 PM
Subject: Eat more fish: the most climate-friendly and nutritious options
compared to meat
To: <foozler83 at gmail.com>


What matters in science |
View this email in your browser
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Wednesday
14 September 2022
[image: Nature Briefing]
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=cd83f036b3&e=d520e39c16>

Hello *Nature *readers,
Today we learn about climate-friendly and nutritious fish, discover what
scientists are learning about severe monkeypox and learn that the paywall
is down for citations in Crossref.
[image: Close-up of a crate of mackerels for sale at a market in Genova,
Italy.]
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=d0ee17e9ee&e=d520e39c16>
Small fish, such as mackerel, have a high nutritional value and a low
carbon footprint. (Getty)
The most climate-friendly seafood
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=83561c8259&e=d520e39c16>

Replacing meat with certain types of sustainably sourced seafood could help
people to reduce their carbon footprints without compromising on nutrition
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=b6e865d9e2&e=d520e39c16>,
finds an analysis of dozens of marine species that are consumed worldwide.
The study points to options that generate fewer greenhouse-gas emissions
and are more nutrient-dense sources of protein than beef, pork or chicken:

   - Farmed bivalves: shellfish. such as mussels, clams and oysters
   - Wild-caught pink salmon (*Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) *and sockeye
salmon (*Oncorhynchus
   nerka*)
   - Wild-caught, small, surface-dwelling (pelagic) fish, such as
   anchovies, mackerel and herring

Whitefish, such as cod (*Gadus *sp.), also had a low climate impact, but
were among the least nutrient-dense food. Wild-caught crustaceans had the
highest emissions, with a carbon footprint rivalled only by that of beef.
The authors note that their emissions data do not include ?post-production?
emissions, such as those generated by refrigeration or transport.

Nature | 4 min read
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=276ca514ee&e=d520e39c16>
Reference: *Communications Earth & Environment*
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paper
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[image: BETTER FISH TO FRY. Graphic showing some seafood has a higher
nutritional value and generates fewer emissions than meat.]
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What we know about severe monkeypox
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So far into the global monkeypox outbreak, scientists are breathing a
cautious sigh of relief. The death rate is lower than expected from
historical data
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=c1b7cdaa56&e=d520e39c16>
? about 0.04%, compared with the 1?3% reported during outbreaks caused by a
similar viral strain in West Africa. Although people typically experience
fewer lesions than in past outbreaks, they seem more likely to appear on
sensitive mucosal tissues, such as those in the throat. These factors have
caused researchers to re-evaluate what they thought they knew about severe
monkeypox.
Nature | 5 min read
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Crossref citations come out into the open
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The reference lists in Crossref are now free to read and reuse. The
Crossref database registers DOIs, or digital object identifiers, for many
of the world?s academic publications. Open-science advocates have for years
campaigned to make papers? citation data accessible under liberal copyright
licences so that they can be studied
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=8940a7c6d3&e=d520e39c16>
to identify research trends and areas of research that need funding, and to
spot when scientists are manipulating citation counts.
Nature | 3 min read
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=4dd29e7145&e=d520e39c16>
How this jellyfish can live forever
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The tiny translucent jellyfish *Turritopsis dohrnii* can revert to an
immature polyp state and revive itself again and again ? effectively making
it immortal. Researchers have now sequenced the jellyfish?s genome and studied
the genes involved in its rejuvenation
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=053fbafc7a&e=d520e39c16>.
They found that genes associated with DNA storage were highly expressed in
adult jellyfish, but reduced as the animals transformed into polyps.
However, genes linked to pluripotency, or the ability of cells to turn into
any cell type, were increasingly expressed as the jellyfish reverted.
The New York Times | 4 min read
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Reference: *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*
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Features & opinion
Science and the Supreme Court
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Court sits in judgement of laws enacted by Congress and state legislatures,
as well as constitutional disputes at any level of government. Its unusual
power, compared with that of high courts in other democracies, derives in
part from its small size and the fact that its nine justices are appointed
for life. Three members appointed by former president Donald Trump have
tipped the balance to an ultraconservative supermajority that is often
sceptical of ? if not outright hostile towards ? science
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=184c8d829f&e=d520e39c16>
.
Nature | 10 min read
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Our lab vlog showcases our joy in science
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When structural-engineering researcher Nan Hu needed to produce a short
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<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=8a8bef47c8&e=d520e39c16>.
Now their lab vlog
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on leading Chinese video-sharing platform Bilibili has more than 20,000
subscribers. ?Managing a vlog adds extra hours to my role as a supervisor,
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me but go on to receive thousands of likes.?
Nature | 6 min read
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News & views
[image: Composite photograph and illustration image of fossilized
<i>Auroralumina attenboroughii</i>]
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=d85d007d8f&e=d520e39c16>
A fossilized *Auroralumina attenboroughii* appears to have tentacles and
goblet-like structures that arise from tissue called the periderm. (Dunn et
al./Nat. Ecol. Evol. (CC BY 4.0))
Fossil of one of the oldest-known animals
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An exciting new fossil reveals key features of cnidarians ? the ancient
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attenboroughii* ? named in honour of the naturalist David Attenborough ?
throws the door open on the Ediacaran period (635?539 million years ago),
when the oldest-known ancestors of this grouping plied the seas. Its body
plan is very different from that of other Ediacaran organisms: two
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<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=7db67423af&e=d520e39c16>.
It is only a single, imperfect fossil, but it offers tantalizing
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Nature
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6 min read
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Palaeontologist Steve Brusatte responds after a man in Portugal found an
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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep 14 22:28:29 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 15:28:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <20220912205601.Horde.8dav1mAIMXFWODlL_hVvx-A@sollegro.com>
References: <mailman.201.1662915653.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <20220912205601.Horde.8dav1mAIMXFWODlL_hVvx-A@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <033c01d8c889$50c56c60$f2504520$@rainier66.com>

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat

Subject: Re: [ExI] oh no, not this again...

 

 

Quoting Spike:

 

> ...that would be a compelling theory except that Atlantic sea  

> surface temperatures this fall are not cooler, they > are warmer.   

> This in theory should have be a very active hurricane season according 

> to long-accepted theory.

 

>.I am by no means an expert on the weather, but the standard explanation
for hurricanes doesn't make sense. The high temperature of the sea surface
can't drive a hurricane by itself, it needs a temperature gradient from the
ocean surface to the top of the convection cell. It doesn't matter how warm
the surface temps are if the upper atmosphere is too warm to get a good
convective flow going.  

I don't have solid data, but during the volcanic eruption, the stratosphere
had its moisture content increased by 10% in a few seconds in the form of
superheated steam. The oceans surface is a little warmer this year, but the
atmosphere is also warmer. Less of a temperature gradient means less
convection means fewer storms and no hurricanes.

 

But like I said, I am just broadly applying fluid dynamics to the situation,
I am not a meteorologist.

 

Stuart LaForge

 

 

_______________________________________________

 

Stuart sheesh I leave you lads for a mere three days to go hiking in the
Sierras, trust you in charge of the weather, and whaddya do?  NOTHING!
Nada.

 

Dang this is weird.  Peak of the seasons, nothing out there.  One measly
tropical elation, one.  Lotta years we have had three namers going
simultaneously in mid September including a furious hurricane.

 

With this flat spot in the accumulated cyclone energy curve, 2022 is right
back in the running for being the second quietest year behind 1983.

 

I am guessing it will pass up about half a dozen of the quiet years however.

 

I am in the mood for some loud angry weather.

 

spike

 

 



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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep 14 23:26:57 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 16:26:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
Message-ID: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>

 

While climbing in the Sierras this week a fun thought experiment occurred to
me.  My companions and I were hiking from sunrise until almost sunset,
covered about 15 miles, but never saw another human the whole time.  We went
to the top of Deadwood Peak, where we signed the log book.  I noticed the
date on the previous page was from ten days previous.  OK, here's the
thought experiment, or possible paradox.

 

Suppose you sign the mountaintop log book and note the previous visitor was
10 days previous.  With only that information, one might estimate that
visitors come to the peak about every 10 days or so.  But what if. you
rigged a switch on the box which contains the log book which did nothing
more than set an LCD display to that day's date any time anyone opened the
box?  Then suppose you walk up, notice the display read 10 days ago.  But
you didn't open the box.  Rather you left without signing the book.  Then
what would you estimate the frequency of visit?  Every 20 days?

 

If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed the
book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?

 

Do explain please.

 

spike

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Sep 14 23:29:13 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 18:29:13 -0500
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <033c01d8c889$50c56c60$f2504520$@rainier66.com>
References: <mailman.201.1662915653.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <20220912205601.Horde.8dav1mAIMXFWODlL_hVvx-A@sollegro.com>
 <033c01d8c889$50c56c60$f2504520$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbevLVUTUEbFX2kQ09DOLErXs6+_V+T-mZ7MnrPSxKrYA@mail.gmail.com>

Loud angry weather?  Try tornados.  One came by my little trailer in '73
(?) and shook it - approaching it sounded like 100 freight trains or a
million bee hives.  A little too angry for me.  Wiped out a trailer where
the manager had wanted to put me (but I convinced him otherwise) - just 150
feet or so from me - 150 feet between life and death.  The woman and the
trailer that was on that spot left just a few months earlier.   bill w

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022 at 5:31 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
> Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
>
>
>
>
>
> Quoting Spike:
>
>
>
> > ...that would be a compelling theory except that Atlantic sea
>
> > surface temperatures this fall are not cooler, they > are warmer.
>
> > This in theory should have be a very active hurricane season according
>
> > to long-accepted theory.
>
>
>
> >?I am by no means an expert on the weather, but the standard explanation
> for hurricanes doesn't make sense. The high temperature of the sea surface
> can't drive a hurricane by itself, it needs a temperature gradient from the
> ocean surface to the top of the convection cell. It doesn't matter how warm
> the surface temps are if the upper atmosphere is too warm to get a good
> convective flow going.
>
> I don't have solid data, but during the volcanic eruption, the
> stratosphere had its moisture content increased by 10% in a few seconds in
> the form of superheated steam. The oceans surface is a little warmer this
> year, but the atmosphere is also warmer. Less of a temperature gradient
> means less convection means fewer storms and no hurricanes.
>
>
>
> But like I said, I am just broadly applying fluid dynamics to the
> situation, I am not a meteorologist.
>
>
>
> Stuart LaForge
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
>
> Stuart sheesh I leave you lads for a mere three days to go hiking in the
> Sierras, trust you in charge of the weather, and whaddya do?  NOTHING!
> Nada.
>
>
>
> Dang this is weird.  Peak of the seasons, nothing out there.  One measly
> tropical elation, one.  Lotta years we have had three namers going
> simultaneously in mid September including a furious hurricane.
>
>
>
> With this flat spot in the accumulated cyclone energy curve, 2022 is right
> back in the running for being the second quietest year behind 1983.
>
>
>
> I am guessing it will pass up about half a dozen of the quiet years
> however.
>
>
>
> I am in the mood for some loud angry weather.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep 14 23:55:48 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 16:55:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
In-Reply-To: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
References: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <002b01d8c895$83fb33b0$8bf19b10$@rainier66.com>

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Sent: Wednesday, 14 September, 2022 4:27 PM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: spike at rainier66.com
Subject: paradox perhaps

 

 

>.While climbing in the Sierras this week a fun thought experiment occurred
to me.If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed
the book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?...

 

spike

 

 

 

So here's the follow-on question.

 

You rig up a device to reset to zero if someone visits the peak.  Never mind
log box, just a motion detector which will reset to zero if a person comes
to the peak.  Tomorrow it will read 1 if no one comes, 2 the day after, etc.

 

Now imagine the device can send its data to a remote site and you have
sensors on all the local peaks, telling you how long since the last visit.

 

You could go up to the peak, read the device, which says 10 days, before it
resets to zero from your being there.  Or you could look up the sensor on
the remote site and see that a particular sensor reads 10 days, but of
course it would not reset because you are not there physically to read the
device.

 

In the first instance, you might estimate the span between visits at about
10 days, or about 36 visits a year, but in the second case, you might
estimate about 20 days between visits to the peak, since it has already been
10 days and no one is around.  So. your physical presence has messed up the
observation.  But is it that the device enabled you to get the data without
being present, so the 20 day estimate is messed up?

 

 

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Sep 14 23:57:00 2022
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 19:57:00 -0400
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
In-Reply-To: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
References: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+a19GV0dE3ZgxfUjzmsM8CkxmXFSQ=cMiNiXbe8qRXyQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 7:28 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Suppose you sign the mountaintop log book and note the previous visitor
> was 10 days previous.  With only that information, one might estimate that
> visitors come to the peak about every 10 days or so.  But what if? you
> rigged a switch on the box which contains the log book which did nothing
> more than set an LCD display to that day?s date any time anyone opened the
> box?  Then suppose you walk up, notice the display read 10 days ago.  But
> you didn?t open the box.  Rather you left without signing the book.  Then
> what would you estimate the frequency of visit?  Every 20 days?
>
> If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed the
> book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?
>
> Do explain please.
>
Seriously?  You don't estimate a trend from a single data point.

No wait, *I* don't estimate a trend from a single data point.

I would assume time of year impacts average daily temperature which impacts
the likelihood of visits to remote hiking locations.  ...and now we're back
to talking about the weather.

I'd be looking at other statistics nerd details like total visits per year,
average per month/week, weeks/months above and below average by 1 or 2
StDev, etc.  Based on names only, can we infer gender?  If you have "from"
details, do you know average distance traveled?

C'mon... we can't even begin to consider normative intervals until we've
investigated the islands, shorelines, and overall topology of the data
we're exploring.

>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Sep 15 00:05:58 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 01:05:58 +0100
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbevLVUTUEbFX2kQ09DOLErXs6+_V+T-mZ7MnrPSxKrYA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.201.1662915653.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <20220912205601.Horde.8dav1mAIMXFWODlL_hVvx-A@sollegro.com>
 <033c01d8c889$50c56c60$f2504520$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEbevLVUTUEbFX2kQ09DOLErXs6+_V+T-mZ7MnrPSxKrYA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjsFfj72B6m-nWNzxPVrTE9uYmV4m0LfVbyzUntPoxp6A@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 15 Sept 2022 at 00:36, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Loud angry weather?  Try tornados.  One came by my little trailer in '73 (?) and shook it - approaching it sounded like 100 freight trains or a million bee hives.  A little too angry for me.  Wiped out a trailer where the manager had wanted to put me (but I convinced him otherwise) - just 150 feet or so from me - 150 feet between life and death.  The woman and the trailer that was on that spot left just a few months earlier.   bill w
>
> _______________________________________________


Mobile Home Tie-downs claim to secure trailers through tornados.
<https://www.attainablehome.com/what-are-mobile-home-hurricane-tie-downs/>

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 15 00:21:17 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 17:21:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdb+a19GV0dE3ZgxfUjzmsM8CkxmXFSQ=cMiNiXbe8qRXyQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdb+a19GV0dE3ZgxfUjzmsM8CkxmXFSQ=cMiNiXbe8qRXyQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004e01d8c899$13ac2570$3b047050$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat
Sent: Wednesday, 14 September, 2022 4:57 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] paradox perhaps

 

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 7:28 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Suppose you sign the mountaintop log book and note the previous visitor was 10 days previous?

If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed the book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?

Do explain please.

>?Seriously?  You don't estimate a trend from a single data point.

 

>?No wait, *I* don't estimate a trend from a single data point. 

 

>?I would assume time of year impacts average daily temperature which impacts the likelihood of visits to remote hiking locations.  ...and now we're back to talking about the weather?

 

 

 

Mike I was setting you up for the follow-on question.  We know you can?t get a reasonable estimate from one observation.  But this all leads back to the LIGO results.  I am more interested in LIGO than I am in how often Sierra peaks are visited.  The whole thing starts to get a bit quantum mechanicsey if you ask yourself: did your observation somehow impact the estimate?  That?s where quantum mechanics ends up going: the observer does influence reality.

 

Mike one minor detail: it isn?t a trend but rather only one number based on one number.  Is it possible to estimate  a span between visits with *any* level of confidence (and if so, what confidence?) based on the time since the last visit?

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Sep 15 00:44:20 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 17:44:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
In-Reply-To: <004e01d8c899$13ac2570$3b047050$@rainier66.com>
References: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdb+a19GV0dE3ZgxfUjzmsM8CkxmXFSQ=cMiNiXbe8qRXyQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <004e01d8c899$13ac2570$3b047050$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNROMETu5=5kCmKS-fH2B4GDZOL-ck6okLjfKyOwE1JxAA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 5:22 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Is it possible to estimate  a span between visits with **any** level of
> confidence (and if so, what confidence?) based on the time since the last
> visit?
>
If you know there has been a last visit some time before now, then you know
that the time between visits is less than the age of the universe.
Confidence level depends on how confident you are that there has been a
prior visit, and in the estimate you use for the age of the universe.
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Thu Sep 15 01:09:13 2022
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 21:09:13 -0400
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
In-Reply-To: <004e01d8c899$13ac2570$3b047050$@rainier66.com>
References: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdb+a19GV0dE3ZgxfUjzmsM8CkxmXFSQ=cMiNiXbe8qRXyQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <004e01d8c899$13ac2570$3b047050$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLah62hNGg57A58-C1=5fbB=+j9dG1TYb1O-fSupydGDQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 8:23 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Mike one minor detail: it isn?t a trend but rather only one number based
> on one number.  Is it possible to estimate  a span between visits with *
> *any** level of confidence (and if so, what confidence?) based on the
> time since the last visit?
>
I say no.

What you are proposing feels to me like asking if it is possible to predict
the outcome of a fair coin flip based on the result of a previous coin flip.

We tend to apply "common sense" when context is unavailable/insufficient.

What makes 'quantum events' so "spooky" and strange is that common sense is
non-applicable.

I don't think we should assert probility of future black hole merges based
on prior observations: we might have witnessed a fireworks finale that
might be followed by silence for years/decades/millennia.  Maybe we could
assert a distribution of black holes in a volume of space and determine the
probability they'll come within striking distance of neighbors within a
period of time?  tbh, I'm not sure how to reason about what LIGO actually
detects- I can't determine direction from bass sound with wavelengths
longer than my head is wide... are gravity waves similar?

And that's why/how common sense fails us: you are drawing parallels to
mountaintop logbook signatures, i am grasping at straws like
bass/infrasound - but neither of those are good surrogates for what LIGO is
actually measuring.

It is fun to think about though :)

>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Sep 15 01:39:04 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 20:39:04 -0500
Subject: [ExI] oh no, not this again...
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjsFfj72B6m-nWNzxPVrTE9uYmV4m0LfVbyzUntPoxp6A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.201.1662915653.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <20220912205601.Horde.8dav1mAIMXFWODlL_hVvx-A@sollegro.com>
 <033c01d8c889$50c56c60$f2504520$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEbevLVUTUEbFX2kQ09DOLErXs6+_V+T-mZ7MnrPSxKrYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjsFfj72B6m-nWNzxPVrTE9uYmV4m0LfVbyzUntPoxp6A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbLLqKXX0-CEtbg8xSTPMyD7AE=OHYHHOeVQdwtBPEqLA@mail.gmail.com>

I worked in the mobile home business.  They will sell you tie downs but
laugh at you behind your back.  They know that if a tornado hits your home
it will be blown away or imploded.

They make money from the tiedowns but they don't work well - maybe if the
winds are 80 or so they will help - such as in a hurricane.   bill w

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022 at 7:10 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Thu, 15 Sept 2022 at 00:36, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Loud angry weather?  Try tornados.  One came by my little trailer in '73
> (?) and shook it - approaching it sounded like 100 freight trains or a
> million bee hives.  A little too angry for me.  Wiped out a trailer where
> the manager had wanted to put me (but I convinced him otherwise) - just 150
> feet or so from me - 150 feet between life and death.  The woman and the
> trailer that was on that spot left just a few months earlier.   bill w
> >
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> Mobile Home Tie-downs claim to secure trailers through tornados.
> <https://www.attainablehome.com/what-are-mobile-home-hurricane-tie-downs/>
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 15 04:41:04 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 21:41:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLah62hNGg57A58-C1=5fbB=+j9dG1TYb1O-fSupydGDQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdb+a19GV0dE3ZgxfUjzmsM8CkxmXFSQ=cMiNiXbe8qRXyQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <004e01d8c899$13ac2570$3b047050$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdbLah62hNGg57A58-C1=5fbB=+j9dG1TYb1O-fSupydGDQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00bf01d8c8bd$5df151e0$19d3f5a0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] paradox perhaps

 

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 8:23 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Mike one minor detail: it isn?t a trend but rather only one number based on one number.  Is it possible to estimate  a span between visits with *any* level of confidence (and if so, what confidence?) based on the time since the last visit?

>?I say no.  

 

>?What you are proposing feels to me like asking if it is possible to predict the outcome of a fair coin flip based on the result of a previous coin flip?.

 

>?And that's why/how common sense fails us: you are drawing parallels to mountaintop logbook signatures, i am grasping at straws like bass/infrasound - but neither of those are good surrogates for what LIGO is actually measuring. 

 

>?It is fun to think about though :)

 

 

Mike back in about the early 2000s when there was all the buzz about whether LIGO was worth building, I estimated the probability of a detectable event in each century at about 50-50, so I was a skeptic on building the thing.  If you were following it, you may recall they turned it on in late 2015 but it was really only a test run, for calibrations and such.  No one expected the bwIP about 3 wks after they turned it on.

 

They studied the hell outta that signal and in February announced to the world LIGO had witnessed a black hole merger.  That was the first time I started thinking about this question.  I really wondered if it was possible, this was a once in a lifetime event, and they just happened to get the instrument turned on just in time to detect it.  That was the first time I really thought about the problem of estimating a frequency of an event based on a single known interval (about 3 wks in the case of LIGO, 10 days in the case of the mountaintop log book.)

 

Well now we have a second LIGO.  The first one is in BillW?s neighborhood: Livingston Louisiana, the other is in Hanford near Richland WA.  There is another interferometer (Virgo) which is being built in India, so we can triangulate and figure out where the wave came from.  Cool!

 

Regarding something I posted about a few weeks ago, why I thought these events would be so rare: I couldn?t (and still can?t) grasp where all that angular momentum is going.

 

The following are not even BOTECs, no need to mess up an otherwise back of an envelope.  We can do these in our heads.  Imagine two black holes forming (somehow) at a sun/earth distance, one AU, so about 150 million km, so multiply by 2 pi, the circumference of the orbit is about a billion km, and it goes around in about 30 million seconds, so the earth goes about 30 km per second.  So now imagine increasing the mass of both to 30 solar masses, same distance apart, so the attraction is 60 times greater, so the orbit speed is close enough to 8 times faster, 240 km per second and we still having messed up an envelope.

 

The momentum absorbed is the equivalent of (somehow) stopping an object of mass 30 solar masses going 250 km per second.  I run thru those equations regarding warping of spacetime, and I just don?t get how there could be so many of these events still happening.

 

My visual picture of two black holes forming at 1 AU must be wrong, because if that really did happen (somehow) then it would require something weird like dark matter participating in drawing down the angular momentum.  Dark matter does interact gravitationally with ordinary matter, but I don?t understand how dark matter could come along and cause two black holes to fall together.

 

There?s just too dang much I don?t know.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Sep 15 12:11:22 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 13:11:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] paradox perhaps
In-Reply-To: <00bf01d8c8bd$5df151e0$19d3f5a0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000e01d8c891$7c158d70$7440a850$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdb+a19GV0dE3ZgxfUjzmsM8CkxmXFSQ=cMiNiXbe8qRXyQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <004e01d8c899$13ac2570$3b047050$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdbLah62hNGg57A58-C1=5fbB=+j9dG1TYb1O-fSupydGDQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00bf01d8c8bd$5df151e0$19d3f5a0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgOmJb1ayGCP_hVLxu4UvZ+npcYAf-cyLRPK14W+3ykYg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 15 Sept 2022 at 05:44, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
<big snip>
>
> Regarding something I posted about a few weeks ago, why I thought these events would be so rare: I couldn?t (and still can?t) grasp where all that angular momentum is going.
>
> The following are not even BOTECs, no need to mess up an otherwise back of an envelope.  We can do these in our heads.  Imagine two black holes forming (somehow) at a sun/earth distance, one AU, so about 150 million km, so multiply by 2 pi, the circumference of the orbit is about a billion km, and it goes around in about 30 million seconds, so the earth goes about 30 km per second.  So now imagine increasing the mass of both to 30 solar masses, same distance apart, so the attraction is 60 times greater, so the orbit speed is close enough to 8 times faster, 240 km per second and we still having messed up an envelope.
>
> The momentum absorbed is the equivalent of (somehow) stopping an object of mass 30 solar masses going 250 km per second.  I run thru those equations regarding warping of spacetime, and I just don?t get how there could be so many of these events still happening.
>
> My visual picture of two black holes forming at 1 AU must be wrong, because if that really did happen (somehow) then it would require something weird like dark matter participating in drawing down the angular momentum.  Dark matter does interact gravitationally with ordinary matter, but I don?t understand how dark matter could come along and cause two black holes to fall together.
>
> There?s just too dang much I don?t know.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Yes, it is very complicated. You need to solve general-relativity
field equations. And probably use supercomputers.  :)

Try this -
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_black_hole>
Quote:
Observation
The first observation of stellar-mass binary black holes merging,
GW150914, was performed by the LIGO detector. As observed from Earth,
a pair of black holes with estimated masses around 36 and 29 times
that of the Sun spun into each other and merged to form an
approximately 62-solar-mass black hole on 14 September 2015, at 09:50
UTC. Three solar masses were converted to gravitational radiation in
the final fraction of a second, with a peak power 3.6?1056 erg/s (200
solar masses per second), which is 50 times the total output power of
all the stars in the observable universe. The merger took place
440(+160?180) megaparsecs from Earth, between 600 million and 1.8 billion years
ago. The observed signal is consistent with the predictions of
numerical relativity.

and
<https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/277073/what-happens-to-the-angular-momentum-of-two-merging-black-holes>
Quote:
Orbital angular momentum can and does get transferred to spin, or
rotation, of the merged black hole.
(But some is also lost in gravitational radiation - see above).


BillK


From avant at sollegro.com  Thu Sep 15 12:57:36 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 05:57:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Ukrainian astronomers systematically studying UFOs over
 warzone
Message-ID: <20220915055736.Horde.hri86MXLnsoiO1FEySrA4H3@sollegro.com>


Astronomers from the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv  
have been tracking and studying a large number of UAPs that have been  
flying over the warzone. By using simultaneous observations from two  
tracking stations spaced 120 km apart, they were able to triangulate  
their altitude, speed, size, and optical characteristics. They ranged  
from being 10-15 km in altitude to 1170 km in altitude, travelling at  
speeds of up to 15 km per second, and ranged from 3 to 12 meters  
across in size. The scientists have classified the UFOs as either  
"cosmics" or "phantoms" based on whether they emit or absorb light.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/ukrainian-astronomers-claim-ufos-everywhere-over-kyiv/?utm_source=like2buy.curalate.com&crl8_id=66ab5525-26eb-493c-9724-70537d09c17d

----------------------
Abstract

NASA commissioned a research team to study Unidentified Aerial  
Phenomena (UAP), observations
of events that cannot scientifically be identified as known natural  
phenomena. The Main Astronomical
Observatory of NAS of Ukraine conducts an independent study of UAP  
also. For UAP observations, we
used two meteor stations installed in Kyiv and in the Vinarivka  
village in the south of the Kyiv region.
Observations were performed with colour video cameras in the daytime  
sky. We have developed a special
observation technique, for detecting and evaluating UAP  
characteristics. According to our data, there are
two types of UAP, which we conventionally call: (1) Cosmics, and (2)  
Phantoms. We note that Cosmics
are luminous objects, brighter than the background of the sky. We call  
these ships names of birds (swift,
falcon, eagle). Phantoms are dark objects, with contrast from several  
to about 50 per cent. We present a
broad range of UAPs. We see them everywhere. We observe a significant  
number of objects whose nature
is not clear. Flights of single, group and squadrons of the ships were  
detected, moving at speeds from 3 to
15 degrees per second. Some bright objects exhibit regular brightness  
variability in the range of 10 - 20 Hz.
Two-site observations of UAPs at a base of 120 km with two  
synchronised cameras allowed the detection of
a variable object, at an altitude of 1170 km. It flashes for one  
hundredth of a second at an average of 20 Hz.
We use colourimetry methods to determine of distance to objects and  
evaluate their color characteristics.
Objects RGB colors of the Adobe color system had converted to the  
Johnson BVR astronomical color system
using the color corrections. Phantom shows the colur characteristics  
inherent in an object with zero albedos.
It is a completely black body that does not emit and absorbs all the  
radiation falling on it. We see an object
because it shields radiation due to Rayleigh scattering. An object  
contrast makes it possible to estimate the
distance using colorimetric methods. Phantoms are observed in the  
troposphere at distances up to 10 - 12
km. We estimate their size from 3 to 12 meters and speeds up to 15 km/s.
----------------

This is the crunchiest data on UFOs I have seen to date, and I am  
interested to hear what you guys have to say about this.

Stuart LaForge




From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Sep 15 13:12:45 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 14:12:45 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ukrainian astronomers systematically studying UFOs over
 warzone
In-Reply-To: <20220915055736.Horde.hri86MXLnsoiO1FEySrA4H3@sollegro.com>
References: <20220915055736.Horde.hri86MXLnsoiO1FEySrA4H3@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgwJfdFOv=c=CrPCmo0uznBoZ726qPsi==nE_cF8Jeu0Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 15 Sept 2022 at 14:00, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Astronomers from the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv
> have been tracking and studying a large number of UAPs that have been
> flying over the warzone. By using simultaneous observations from two
> tracking stations spaced 120 km apart, they were able to triangulate
> their altitude, speed, size, and optical characteristics. They ranged
> from being 10-15 km in altitude to 1170 km in altitude, travelling at
> speeds of up to 15 km per second, and ranged from 3 to 12 meters
> across in size. The scientists have classified the UFOs as either
> "cosmics" or "phantoms" based on whether they emit or absorb light.
>
> https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf
>
> https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/ukrainian-astronomers-claim-ufos-everywhere-over-kyiv/?utm_source=like2buy.curalate.com&crl8_id=66ab5525-26eb-493c-9724-70537d09c17d
>
> ----------------------
>
> This is the crunchiest data on UFOs I have seen to date, and I am
> interested to hear what you guys have to say about this.
>
> Stuart LaForge
> _______________________________________________


They are academics from the future studying 'How World War III started'.
Obviously they have to follow non-intervention restrictions as that
would affect their future world.


BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 15 15:04:01 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 08:04:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] brown alerts: new earthquake alert system
Message-ID: <00f001d8c914$63fb92b0$2bf2b810$@rainier66.com>

 

Hey cool, the earthquake alert system works.

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/09/14/shakealerts-big-test-in-santa-rosa-ea
rthquake/

 

Back over 30 yrs ago when we had that 89 quake along the Loma Prieta, I got
to thinking there aughta be a way to give proles at least a few seconds
advance warning, which could really help save lives.  Set up a network of
seismometers with some kind of communication system figure out immediately
where the epicenter is, send out something like an amber alert, since the
signal to the satellite travels at the speed of light but the earthquake
shock wave travels at the speed of sound in rock, which is about 4.5 km/sec.

 

So. you wouldn't get much warning, but maybe a little.  I was about 37 km
from the Loma Prieta epicenter in 89, so about 8 seconds warming minus the
latency to relay the signal, so maybe 5 seconds?  That would give me time to
slam the filing cabinet (which fell over when the drawers rattled out) then
get my ass underneath a desk.

 

Tuesday when I was climbing in the Sierras I saw this in the distance and
wondered if some goof had carried all this junk this far up the slope, so I
climbed down and back up (which was damn hard to get to) and discovered it
was a seismograph (my apologies USGS, my blasted curiosity caused an
artificial earthquake (but not much of one (I don't weigh much))) along with
a solar panel and a satellite dish.

 



 

So the USGS is apparently doing exactly what I had envisioned: set up a
network of these seismos, give the proles a few seconds to repent of their
sins, perhaps scream or grab the urn with grandma's ashes, that sorta thing.


 

We already have amber alerts for missing endangered children and silver
alerts for missing endangered geezers.  They could call the earthquake
system brown alerts, for . em. well, yellow was already taken and . 

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 15 17:17:04 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 10:17:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i like the other side better
In-Reply-To: <00f001d8c914$63fb92b0$2bf2b810$@rainier66.com>
References: <00f001d8c914$63fb92b0$2bf2b810$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <006a01d8c926$fa2d1b70$ee875250$@rainier66.com>

 

Can we turn it around and look at the other side for a few million years?
It has more features:

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569110135724802054

 

But. why does it have more features?  Those big gray areas, the mares, don't
have many craters because I suppose the earth's gravity makes them less
likely to hit on our side.

 

This is a way cool graphic in any case.

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 15 19:24:37 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 12:24:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] this year's ace
Message-ID: <00bb01d8c938$cba8d2a0$62fa77e0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

The common metric for storminess is ACE, accumulated cyclone energy.

 

The curve below is ACE this year and the average over the past 56 years
since satellites.

 

Average for the ides of September is 70, but we are not yet at 30.

 



 

All this has me pondering what happens to insurance rates if we go an entire
season with zero or negligible storm damage.  My guess is the rates will not
go down at all.  They will go up.  Reasoning: calm years are very costly and
dangerous, for they result in droughts in Europe, which cause crop failures,
which our company also hasta pay for.

 

Conclusion: we can't win.  We can't even break even.

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 15 20:01:44 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 13:01:44 -0700
Subject: [ExI] brown alerts: new earthquake alert system
In-Reply-To: <00f001d8c914$63fb92b0$2bf2b810$@rainier66.com>
References: <00f001d8c914$63fb92b0$2bf2b810$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <011701d8c93d$fb4e2460$f1ea6d20$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Subject: brown alerts: new earthquake alert system

 

 

>.Hey cool, the earthquake alert system works.

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/09/14/shakealerts-big-test-in-santa-rosa-ea
rthquake/

 

 



 

>.So the USGS is apparently doing exactly what I had envisioned: set up a
network of these seismos, give the proles a few seconds to repent of their
sins, perhaps scream or grab the urn with grandma's ashes, that sorta thing.
We already have amber alerts for missing endangered children and silver
alerts for missing endangered geezers.  They could call the earthquake
system brown alerts, for . em. well, yellow was already taken and . spike

 

 

Wait, I realized that brown alert notion won't work.  The amber alert and
the silver alert have the same sound to get your attention (oooh it works
(because it is really loud (and makes ya jump outta your damn skin.)))  If
we set it up so that a brown alert makes the same sound as the other two
colors, you know what would happen, ja?  Some snarky old bahstid hoping to
raise some excellent hell will set up video cameras at the office, go out
somewhere, call in a silver alert on himself, record his young colleagues
diving under tables, send it in to America's Funniest Home Videos.  Then if
I get cau. uh.rather, if HE gets caught, HE could play senile old bahstid,
claim HE really was lost in HIS own neighborhood, which isn't MY
neighborhood.  Necessarily.

 

Dang.  Never work.

 

There aughta be a way to send a specific vocal message, one that would
specifically say "Earthquake, take cover young fools" or something like
that, a message to offer a useful warning but stop snarky geezers from using
it to play gags on the proles.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Sep 15 22:04:23 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 17:04:23 -0500
Subject: [ExI] matt ridley
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYyLjXtK1Yah9i85LFYbtoZx2NrgwrfNuy4qOQ3p-u9-g@mail.gmail.com>

Is anyone receiving this post a reader of Ridley?  Do you have
'The Evolution of Everything?

What do you think?    bill w
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From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Sep 16 20:06:03 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2022 21:06:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
Message-ID: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>

The Universe in One Year was inspired by the late astronomer, Carl
Sagan (1934-1996). Sagan was the first person to explain the history
of the universe in one year-as a "Cosmic Calendar"-in his television
series, Cosmos.

<http://visav.phys.uvic.ca/~babul/AstroCourses/P303/BB-slide.htm>

Our Milky Way galaxy doesn?t form until May, and our solar system only
comes into being on the 9th of September. Life on Earth appears around
September 25, and life doesn?t reach land until December 21. In the
next week at this scale, we see amphibians, trees, reptiles,
dinosaurs, mammals, birds, and flowers. It?s not until the very last
day of the year, at 10:30PM, that the first humans appear. And in the
final minute, all human history whizzes by, from cave paintings and
the invention of agriculture, to the moon landing.

On the time scale of the universe, humans are just the blink of an eye.

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Sep 16 21:36:24 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 16 Sep 2022 14:36:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>



...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar

The Universe in One Year was inspired by the late astronomer, Carl Sagan (1934-1996). Sagan was the first person to explain the history of the universe in one year-as a "Cosmic Calendar"-in his television series, Cosmos.

<http://visav.phys.uvic.ca/~babul/AstroCourses/P303/BB-slide.htm>

Our Milky Way galaxy doesn?t form until May, and our solar system only comes into being on the 9th of September. Life on Earth appears around September 25, and life doesn?t reach land until December 21. In the next week at this scale, we see amphibians, trees, reptiles, dinosaurs, mammals, birds, and flowers. It?s not until the very last day of the year, at 10:30PM, that the first humans appear. And in the final minute, all human history whizzes by, from cave paintings and the invention of agriculture, to the moon landing.

On the time scale of the universe, humans are just the blink of an eye.

BillK

_______________________________________________


BillK, thanks for that.

I can tell you: Carl Sagan changed my life.  I owe that man everything.  Dragons of Eden was a total mind-blower.

Fun story: in 1980, video cassette recorders were the hot new thing.  The physics professor gave seminars every Tuesday night but I was a busy engineering student with a new girlfriend (the one I have been married to for 38 years) so I didn't go.  My previous girl, with whom I had parted on amicable terms, came up to us as we were walking across campus and said "Oh you need to come to the physics seminar Tuesday, big doings, way big.  Everyone there said we should bring you next week."

So, we went and she was right.  It answered all the questions I had been asking.  The seminar was Carl Sagan's Cosmos.  That caused my life to bounce off in another direction by about a radian.  Everything changed.  I came out of religious fundamentalism.  Life is good.  And that is what college is all about, Charlie Brown.

spike








From avant at sollegro.com  Sat Sep 17 13:33:42 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 06:33:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Ukrainian astronomers systematically studying UFOs over
 warzone
Message-ID: <20220917063342.Horde.lsns5Gfh3i_kFPXc7VLm0R7@sollegro.com>


Quoting BillK:

> On Thu, 15 Sept 2022 at 14:00, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> Astronomers from the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv
>> have been tracking and studying a large number of UAPs that have been
>> flying over the warzone. By using simultaneous observations from two
>> tracking stations spaced 120 km apart, they were able to triangulate
>> their altitude, speed, size, and optical characteristics. They ranged
>> from being 10-15 km in altitude to 1170 km in altitude, travelling at
>> speeds of up to 15 km per second, and ranged from 3 to 12 meters
>> across in size. The scientists have classified the UFOs as either
>> "cosmics" or "phantoms" based on whether they emit or absorb light.
>>
>> https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf
>>
>> https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/ukrainian-astronomers-claim-ufos-everywhere-over-kyiv/?utm_source=like2buy.curalate.com&crl8_id=66ab5525-26eb-493c-9724-70537d09c17d
>>
>> ----------------------
>>
>> This is the crunchiest data on UFOs I have seen to date, and I am
>> interested to hear what you guys have to say about this.
>>
>> Stuart LaForge
>> _______________________________________________
>
>
> They are academics from the future studying 'How World War III started'.
> Obviously they have to follow non-intervention restrictions as that
> would affect their future world.
>
>
> BillK
> ------------------------------

While the time-traveling future-historian hypothesis does seem to  
explain UAP's reticence to publically announce their presence or  
engage with people, it is just as unlikely as superluminal  
interstellar travel for all the same reasons. Einstein's theories of  
relativity indicate that both time-travel and superluminal speeds  
introduce causal paradoxes that seem to render them impossible. Then  
again, one could surmise that such paradoxes themselves are invoking  
some form cosmic censorship which is preventing UFOs from being  
clearly and directly observed or interacting with air or water without  
causing sonic booms and wakes.

However as claimed by the UK's Astronomer Royal Lord-Professor Martin  
Rees, aliens are likely machine intelligences as humans seem destined  
to become. Long-lived machines would probably not be inconvenienced by  
hundreds or thousands of years of transit time between stars. This  
would obviate the need for superluminal travel and avoid causal  
paradoxes. It would also explain how UAPs can perform maneuvers at  
hundreds or thousands of gees without killing their occupants.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bad-luck-et-youve-been-replaced-robot-astronomer-royal-60mqsffjd

Another possibility is that UFOs are, as you say, academics but coming  
from some manner of secret base located right here in the solar  
system, like a blind used by wild-life photographers here on Earth.  
That they are scientists or academics would also explain their  
reticence to interact directly with humans. After all, David  
Attenborough would never directly intervene in chimpanzee politics by  
wrestling the alpha male, for example.

Perhaps they are coming from a blind spot, like the Earth-Sun L3  
Lagrange point. Have we ever sent to probe to see what, if anything,  
might be there?

Stuart LaForge




From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep 17 13:37:45 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 08:37:45 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>

It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing his
philosophy, would happen much more often.  Some people are just unchanged
(hidebound conservatives)   Young people should be liberals.  bill w

On Fri, Sep 16, 2022 at 4:38 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> ...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
> Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
>
> The Universe in One Year was inspired by the late astronomer, Carl Sagan
> (1934-1996). Sagan was the first person to explain the history of the
> universe in one year-as a "Cosmic Calendar"-in his television series,
> Cosmos.
>
> <http://visav.phys.uvic.ca/~babul/AstroCourses/P303/BB-slide.htm>
>
> Our Milky Way galaxy doesn?t form until May, and our solar system only
> comes into being on the 9th of September. Life on Earth appears around
> September 25, and life doesn?t reach land until December 21. In the next
> week at this scale, we see amphibians, trees, reptiles, dinosaurs, mammals,
> birds, and flowers. It?s not until the very last day of the year, at
> 10:30PM, that the first humans appear. And in the final minute, all human
> history whizzes by, from cave paintings and the invention of agriculture,
> to the moon landing.
>
> On the time scale of the universe, humans are just the blink of an eye.
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
> BillK, thanks for that.
>
> I can tell you: Carl Sagan changed my life.  I owe that man everything.
> Dragons of Eden was a total mind-blower.
>
> Fun story: in 1980, video cassette recorders were the hot new thing.  The
> physics professor gave seminars every Tuesday night but I was a busy
> engineering student with a new girlfriend (the one I have been married to
> for 38 years) so I didn't go.  My previous girl, with whom I had parted on
> amicable terms, came up to us as we were walking across campus and said "Oh
> you need to come to the physics seminar Tuesday, big doings, way big.
> Everyone there said we should bring you next week."
>
> So, we went and she was right.  It answered all the questions I had been
> asking.  The seminar was Carl Sagan's Cosmos.  That caused my life to
> bounce off in another direction by about a radian.  Everything changed.  I
> came out of religious fundamentalism.  Life is good.  And that is what
> college is all about, Charlie Brown.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep 17 13:53:18 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 06:53:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003901d8ca9c$d85bbf70$89133e50$@rainier66.com>

 

 

On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar

 

>?It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing his philosophy, would happen much more often.  Some people are just unchanged (hidebound conservatives)   Young people should be liberals.  bill w

 

 

On the contrary, Billw.  Young people should be libertarian.  Then as they get old, they should become more libertarian.

 

spike

 

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From avant at sollegro.com  Sat Sep 17 14:00:49 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 07:00:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Ukrainian astronomers systematically studying UFOs over
 warzone
Message-ID: <20220917070049.Horde.Vhp3DMuB4Dvphsfo9uR252R@sollegro.com>


Quoting myself:

> Astronomers from the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv
> have been tracking and studying a large number of UAPs that have been
> flying over the warzone. By using simultaneous observations from two
> tracking stations spaced 120 km apart, they were able to triangulate
> their altitude, speed, size, and optical characteristics. They ranged
> from being 10-15 km in altitude to 1170 km in altitude, travelling at
> speeds of up to 15 km per second, and ranged from 3 to 12 meters
> across in size. The scientists have classified the UFOs as either
> "cosmics" or "phantoms" based on whether they emit or absorb light.
>
> https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf
>
> https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/ukrainian-astronomers-claim-ufos-everywhere-over-kyiv/?utm_source=like2buy.curalate.com&crl8_id=66ab5525-26eb-493c-9724-70537d09c17d
>

After examining the paper, I find the most interesting bit of data to  
be figure 4. I have attached figures 3 and 4 to this email. Figure 4  
shows that there is a LINEAR relationship between a UFO's brightness  
and its speed. So a UFO going twice as fast would glow twice as  
bright. What is so remarkable about this is that this does not  
correspond to any known phenomenon.

For example, a meteor would display a quadratic relationship due to  
nature of kinetic energy being converted to heat and light due to  
friction, causing the meteor to incandesce. So a meteor that went  
twice as fast would glow four times as bright.

Due to the nature of aerodynamic drag forces versus engine efficiency,  
the difference would be even more marked in any known flying vehicle  
where the relationship would be that the engine power and therefore  
brightness would increase with the cube of the velocity. So an  
airplane or a rocket that went twice as fast, would glow eight times  
as bright.

So figure 3 in the paper is very strange. Maybe the UAPs are using  
some form of dark matter engineering that allows them to interact with  
fluids of normal matter in a weaker fashion, allowing them to speed  
through the oceans and atmosphere without friction or drag?

Also for the old-timers on the list, here is a link to one of the  
oldest videos of UFOs I could find online. It dates to July 2, 1952  
and is filmed in Trementon, Utah.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=xSLZz2nzrwk

It even features the voice of "documentary man" from the school films  
of our youth.

Stuart LaForge



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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep 17 14:34:42 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 09:34:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <003901d8ca9c$d85bbf70$89133e50$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <003901d8ca9c$d85bbf70$89133e50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYHT6rxkrYXyyexDnB4W803xy3KrftjQpSh=MvAJUdF2Q@mail.gmail.com>

Now Spike, there is no conflict between being liberal and being
libertarian, since I am one and so are you!   People of all ages should be
libertarian    bill w

On Sat, Sep 17, 2022 at 8:55 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
>
>
>
> >?It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing
> his philosophy, would happen much more often.  Some people are just
> unchanged (hidebound conservatives)   Young people should be liberals.
> bill w
>
>
>
>
>
> On the contrary, Billw.  Young people should be libertarian.  Then as they
> get old, they should become more libertarian.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu  Sat Sep 17 15:02:07 2022
From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 11:02:07 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Ukrainian astronomers systematically studying UFOs over
 warzone
In-Reply-To: <20220917063342.Horde.lsns5Gfh3i_kFPXc7VLm0R7@sollegro.com>
References: <20220917063342.Horde.lsns5Gfh3i_kFPXc7VLm0R7@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <BFF26C17-5D1D-4901-B3E6-B56FA59B9775@alumni.virginia.edu>

I?ve been researching this my whole life and have arrived at the following perspective. I?m convinced such entities are not always or not fully in our phase of matter/reality. Accounts are that they are more like energy or light much of the time. They?d also be able to travel nonlinearly to not be limited by light speed travel. They communicate with humans who are open to this. See the CE5 protocols, CSETI, and the film Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind on YouTube. This is the opposite of them sending drones or lifeless machines. They appear to be concerned about and or prepared to intervene re. our potential risk self-destruction. Even their revealing themselves can be construed as such an intervention. If they haven?t harmed us yet, they are not malevolent I?d suggest. They perhaps are trying to protect us from malevolent humans intent on greedily accumulating more power and resources, or they are helping us jumpstart a change in consciousness, move us towards peace, unity, compassion. There are also human-led black ops programs that have usurped aliens tech and exploit this to breed fear in the public or to further their mammalian territoriality tendencies and or their geopolitical agendas. As such, some ?alien abductions? are not conducted by aliens at all. The Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind film is the best summary to date of these ideas and seems to promote the most plausible explanation to fit with the existing data IMO. 
-Henry

> On Sep 17, 2022, at 9:34 AM, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> 
> ?
> Quoting BillK:
> 
>>> On Thu, 15 Sept 2022 at 14:00, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
>>> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Astronomers from the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv
>>> have been tracking and studying a large number of UAPs that have been
>>> flying over the warzone. By using simultaneous observations from two
>>> tracking stations spaced 120 km apart, they were able to triangulate
>>> their altitude, speed, size, and optical characteristics. They ranged
>>> from being 10-15 km in altitude to 1170 km in altitude, travelling at
>>> speeds of up to 15 km per second, and ranged from 3 to 12 meters
>>> across in size. The scientists have classified the UFOs as either
>>> "cosmics" or "phantoms" based on whether they emit or absorb light.
>>> 
>>> https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf
>>> 
>>> https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/ukrainian-astronomers-claim-ufos-everywhere-over-kyiv/?utm_source=like2buy.curalate.com&crl8_id=66ab5525-26eb-493c-9724-70537d09c17d
>>> 
>>> ----------------------
>>> 
>>> This is the crunchiest data on UFOs I have seen to date, and I am
>>> interested to hear what you guys have to say about this.
>>> 
>>> Stuart LaForge
>>> _______________________________________________
>> 
>> 
>> They are academics from the future studying 'How World War III started'.
>> Obviously they have to follow non-intervention restrictions as that
>> would affect their future world.
>> 
>> 
>> BillK
>> ------------------------------
> 
> While the time-traveling future-historian hypothesis does seem to explain UAP's reticence to publically announce their presence or engage with people, it is just as unlikely as superluminal interstellar travel for all the same reasons. Einstein's theories of relativity indicate that both time-travel and superluminal speeds introduce causal paradoxes that seem to render them impossible. Then again, one could surmise that such paradoxes themselves are invoking some form cosmic censorship which is preventing UFOs from being clearly and directly observed or interacting with air or water without causing sonic booms and wakes.
> 
> However as claimed by the UK's Astronomer Royal Lord-Professor Martin Rees, aliens are likely machine intelligences as humans seem destined to become. Long-lived machines would probably not be inconvenienced by hundreds or thousands of years of transit time between stars. This would obviate the need for superluminal travel and avoid causal paradoxes. It would also explain how UAPs can perform maneuvers at hundreds or thousands of gees without killing their occupants.
> 
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bad-luck-et-youve-been-replaced-robot-astronomer-royal-60mqsffjd
> 
> Another possibility is that UFOs are, as you say, academics but coming from some manner of secret base located right here in the solar system, like a blind used by wild-life photographers here on Earth. That they are scientists or academics would also explain their reticence to interact directly with humans. After all, David Attenborough would never directly intervene in chimpanzee politics by wrestling the alpha male, for example.
> 
> Perhaps they are coming from a blind spot, like the Earth-Sun L3 Lagrange point. Have we ever sent to probe to see what, if anything, might be there?
> 
> Stuart LaForge
> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From ben at zaiboc.net  Sat Sep 17 15:10:15 2022
From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 16:10:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] evolution of morality
In-Reply-To: <mailman.202.1663194525.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.202.1663194525.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <72900054-b47a-f26a-a2a5-8a805dcd4a99@zaiboc.net>

On 14/09/2022 23:28, bill w wrote:
> Even those of us who don't know much of history, like myself, know of 
> horrible practices (as we see them today) that people loved in the 
> past, such as public hangings, burning at the stake, drawing and 
> quartering, people being eaten by lions and more and more.
>
> Does anyone here think that any of these will become widely popular in 
> the future? I cannot see it.? Clearly human nature has not evolved, 
> but morality has, and such things as tolerance of homosexuality and 
> intolerance of pedophilia will increase and not retrogress.
>
> This is all bottom up: no authorities have made rules or laws that 
> require us to change our minds about morality,? This is evolution.? 
> ?bill w

No, that's not evolution. I'd be inclined to call it current fashion, 
peer pressure, or societal trends. Absolutely no reason why it couldn't 
go back, as far as I can see. I suspect it won't, and of course hope it 
won't, but people in general just aren't that enlightened. For most 
people, I reckon the reason they don't kill gays and enslave women, or 
enjoy public displays of violence towards other humans, is that their 
neighbours don't, rather than that it's inherently bad. Look at the 
places where those things do happen. Do the people do anything to 
prevent it? No. They take part, or at least allow it to happen. Many 
many people want these things, they just can't have them (in most of the 
western world, at least, most of the time, for now, and that could 
easily change).

When we see spontaneous mass objections to people being stoned to death 
in muslim countries, chinese citizens rising up against the human rights 
abuses by their government, the russian people removing their corrupt 
leaders, africans deposing their evil bishops, etc., etc., then I'll be 
persuaded to change my mind. That would be brilliant, but I can't see it 
happening.

Even in your own country, I'm sure you know there are plenty of people 
who would gladly kill gay people, athiests, women who want abortions, 
etc., if they thought they could get away with it. The fact that they 
can't is probably due more to random historical events than evidence of 
increasing morality in humans.

Ben
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Sep 17 15:26:35 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 16:26:35 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ukrainian astronomers systematically studying UFOs over
 warzone
In-Reply-To: <20220917063342.Horde.lsns5Gfh3i_kFPXc7VLm0R7@sollegro.com>
References: <20220917063342.Horde.lsns5Gfh3i_kFPXc7VLm0R7@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhDjUKR4QTHW0=HxttjznViJu9=piiLu99bbO93F0B0wg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, 17 Sept 2022 at 14:36, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
<snip>
>
> Another possibility is that UFOs are, as you say, academics but coming
> from some manner of secret base located right here in the solar
> system, like a blind used by wild-life photographers here on Earth.
> That they are scientists or academics would also explain their
> reticence to interact directly with humans. After all, David
> Attenborough would never directly intervene in chimpanzee politics by
> wrestling the alpha male, for example.
>
> Perhaps they are coming from a blind spot, like the Earth-Sun L3
> Lagrange point. Have we ever sent to probe to see what, if anything,
> might be there?
>
> Stuart LaForge
> _______________________________________________


I don't think any probes have been sent to L3.
L1, L2, L4 and L5 seem to have plenty of occupants.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_objects_at_Lagrange_points>
The sun is between L3 and the Earth, so telescopes can't look there.
Radio communication would also be difficult.
Maybe it would need a relay satellite at L4 or L5.


BillK

From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep 17 16:58:58 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 11:58:58 -0500
Subject: [ExI] evolution of morality
In-Reply-To: <72900054-b47a-f26a-a2a5-8a805dcd4a99@zaiboc.net>
References: <mailman.202.1663194525.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <72900054-b47a-f26a-a2a5-8a805dcd4a99@zaiboc.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZDQ3PEpKFBGMoizu1w0m7176JWDQ6XiTm+gLsN1gmipA@mail.gmail.com>

Ben, I think you have to look at the whole culture.  The examples you give
are all from strongly authoritarian countries, where dissent can be
punished severely and conformity is required.

Clearly, there is no evolution of culture like Darwinian evolution - that
is people have not changed in terms of their genome.  So we can be as
violent as we ever were.

And some people would love killing gays etc.  But they are out of step with
their cultures.  As Pinker pointed out in The Better Angels of their
nature, evolution of culture has changed the expression of violence of the
last several hundred years.  Of course we still have people like Idi Amin
but he's a big exception.  bill w

On Sat, Sep 17, 2022 at 10:12 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On 14/09/2022 23:28, bill w wrote:
>
> Even those of us who don't know much of history, like myself, know of
> horrible practices (as we see them today) that people loved in the past,
> such as public hangings, burning at the stake, drawing and quartering,
> people being eaten by lions and more and more.
>
> Does anyone here think that any of these will become widely popular in the
> future? I cannot see it.  Clearly human nature has not evolved, but
> morality has, and such things as tolerance of homosexuality and intolerance
> of pedophilia will increase and not retrogress.
>
> This is all bottom up: no authorities have made rules or laws that require
> us to change our minds about morality,  This is evolution.   bill w
>
>
> No, that's not evolution. I'd be inclined to call it current fashion, peer
> pressure, or societal trends. Absolutely no reason why it couldn't go back,
> as far as I can see. I suspect it won't, and of course hope it won't, but
> people in general just aren't that enlightened. For most people, I reckon
> the reason they don't kill gays and enslave women, or enjoy public displays
> of violence towards other humans, is that their neighbours don't, rather
> than that it's inherently bad. Look at the places where those things do
> happen. Do the people do anything to prevent it? No. They take part, or at
> least allow it to happen. Many many people want these things, they just
> can't have them (in most of the western world, at least, most of the time,
> for now, and that could easily change).
>
> When we see spontaneous mass objections to people being stoned to death in
> muslim countries, chinese citizens rising up against the human rights
> abuses by their government, the russian people removing their corrupt
> leaders, africans deposing their evil bishops, etc., etc., then I'll be
> persuaded to change my mind. That would be brilliant, but I can't see it
> happening.
>
> Even in your own country, I'm sure you know there are plenty of people who
> would gladly kill gay people, athiests, women who want abortions, etc., if
> they thought they could get away with it. The fact that they can't is
> probably due more to random historical events than evidence of increasing
> morality in humans.
>
> Ben
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From sjatkins at protonmail.com  Sat Sep 17 18:10:37 2022
From: sjatkins at protonmail.com (sjatkins)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 18:10:37 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <MIRiNJD2kiOCvNTXMLbtN1_BfbYouOj1uZD2oGs-FKzHednaKkdU7RbTwirRNEPRqaV_BTbTZa-25wRH3oftB_R9Xf8CWkcaMIgnEvqiHJo=@protonmail.com>

Being an independent thinker has nothing to do with blunt political categories like "conservative" or "liberal". That is what college and indeed high school as well should teach people to be. Unfortunately it is very rarely taught or acquired

------- Original Message -------
On Saturday, September 17th, 2022 at 7:37 AM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing his philosophy, would happen much more often. Some people are just unchanged (hidebound conservatives) Young people should be liberals. bill w
>
> On Fri, Sep 16, 2022 at 4:38 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> ...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
>> Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
>>
>> The Universe in One Year was inspired by the late astronomer, Carl Sagan (1934-1996). Sagan was the first person to explain the history of the universe in one year-as a "Cosmic Calendar"-in his television series, Cosmos.
>>
>> <http://visav.phys.uvic.ca/~babul/AstroCourses/P303/BB-slide.htm>
>>
>> Our Milky Way galaxy doesn?t form until May, and our solar system only comes into being on the 9th of September. Life on Earth appears around September 25, and life doesn?t reach land until December 21. In the next week at this scale, we see amphibians, trees, reptiles, dinosaurs, mammals, birds, and flowers. It?s not until the very last day of the year, at 10:30PM, that the first humans appear. And in the final minute, all human history whizzes by, from cave paintings and the invention of agriculture, to the moon landing.
>>
>> On the time scale of the universe, humans are just the blink of an eye.
>>
>> BillK
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>> BillK, thanks for that.
>>
>> I can tell you: Carl Sagan changed my life. I owe that man everything. Dragons of Eden was a total mind-blower.
>>
>> Fun story: in 1980, video cassette recorders were the hot new thing. The physics professor gave seminars every Tuesday night but I was a busy engineering student with a new girlfriend (the one I have been married to for 38 years) so I didn't go. My previous girl, with whom I had parted on amicable terms, came up to us as we were walking across campus and said "Oh you need to come to the physics seminar Tuesday, big doings, way big. Everyone there said we should bring you next week."
>>
>> So, we went and she was right. It answered all the questions I had been asking. The seminar was Carl Sagan's Cosmos. That caused my life to bounce off in another direction by about a radian. Everything changed. I came out of religious fundamentalism. Life is good. And that is what college is all about, Charlie Brown.
>>
>> spike
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep 17 20:28:24 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 13:28:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYHT6rxkrYXyyexDnB4W803xy3KrftjQpSh=MvAJUdF2Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <003901d8ca9c$d85bbf70$89133e50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYHT6rxkrYXyyexDnB4W803xy3KrftjQpSh=MvAJUdF2Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00c001d8cad4$09d28a20$1d779e60$@rainier66.com>

 

 

On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
?
Subject: Re: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar

 

>?Now Spike, there is no conflict between being liberal and being libertarian, since I am one and so are you!   People of all ages should be libertarian    bill w

 

 

 

 

Agree Billw, but the direction American liberalism has taken is surprising to me: away from libertarianism.  Government spending moves away from libertarianism because it requires massive increases in taxation to cover the cost of the spending.  This results in bigger government rather than smaller.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep 17 20:49:56 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 13:49:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <MIRiNJD2kiOCvNTXMLbtN1_BfbYouOj1uZD2oGs-FKzHednaKkdU7RbTwirRNEPRqaV_BTbTZa-25wRH3oftB_R9Xf8CWkcaMIgnEvqiHJo=@protonmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <MIRiNJD2kiOCvNTXMLbtN1_BfbYouOj1uZD2oGs-FKzHednaKkdU7RbTwirRNEPRqaV_BTbTZa-25wRH3oftB_R9Xf8CWkcaMIgnEvqiHJo=@protonmail.com>
Message-ID: <00ce01d8cad7$0bf0cee0$23d26ca0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

?> On Behalf Of sjatkins via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar

 

>?Being an independent thinker has nothing to do with blunt political categories like "conservative" or "liberal".  That is what college and indeed high school as well should teach people to be.  Unfortunately it is very rarely taught or acquired 

 

 

 

Comet Samantha has returned!

 

Welcome madam.  May you hang around for long enough to tell us what you have been up to since your last perihelion in the neighborhood.

 

As you can see, not much has changed around here.  We all got older is all.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Sep 17 21:15:27 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 22:15:27 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <00ce01d8cad7$0bf0cee0$23d26ca0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <MIRiNJD2kiOCvNTXMLbtN1_BfbYouOj1uZD2oGs-FKzHednaKkdU7RbTwirRNEPRqaV_BTbTZa-25wRH3oftB_R9Xf8CWkcaMIgnEvqiHJo=@protonmail.com>
 <00ce01d8cad7$0bf0cee0$23d26ca0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgjxBMXPRrYBNgXXn5bvM-=_go=0tAo9DUkR3x2xabwnQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, 17 Sept 2022 at 21:52, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Comet Samantha has returned!
>
> Welcome madam.  May you hang around for long enough to tell us what you have been up to since your last perihelion in the neighborhood.
> As you can see, not much has changed around here.  We all got older is all.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I think what you mean is we have accumulated maturity and wisdom as we
get older.     :)
(And the spell-checker helps to give that impression!).


BillK

From ilsa.bartlett at gmail.com  Sat Sep 17 21:44:40 2022
From: ilsa.bartlett at gmail.com (ilsa)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 14:44:40 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <MIRiNJD2kiOCvNTXMLbtN1_BfbYouOj1uZD2oGs-FKzHednaKkdU7RbTwirRNEPRqaV_BTbTZa-25wRH3oftB_R9Xf8CWkcaMIgnEvqiHJo=@protonmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <MIRiNJD2kiOCvNTXMLbtN1_BfbYouOj1uZD2oGs-FKzHednaKkdU7RbTwirRNEPRqaV_BTbTZa-25wRH3oftB_R9Xf8CWkcaMIgnEvqiHJo=@protonmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAN3PQpGn=mCyHAA_Txg5BmWk+gXWnqA8-Bxr2Sp3dDwf2JgpyQ@mail.gmail.com>

Well said well said! Being an independent thinker can have lunch with a
homeless person and dinner at the top of the mark and be comfortable in all
situations.
Smile, it's the red carpet of life, with gratitude, ilsa

On Sat, Sep 17, 2022, 11:11 AM sjatkins via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Being an independent thinker has nothing to do with blunt political
> categories like "conservative" or "liberal".  That is what college and
> indeed high school as well should teach people to be.  Unfortunately it is
> very rarely taught or acquired
>
> ------- Original Message -------
> On Saturday, September 17th, 2022 at 7:37 AM, William Flynn Wallace via
> extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing his
> philosophy, would happen much more often. Some people are just unchanged
> (hidebound conservatives) Young people should be liberals. bill w
>
> On Fri, Sep 16, 2022 at 4:38 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> ...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
>> Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
>>
>> The Universe in One Year was inspired by the late astronomer, Carl Sagan
>> (1934-1996). Sagan was the first person to explain the history of the
>> universe in one year-as a "Cosmic Calendar"-in his television series,
>> Cosmos.
>>
>> <http://visav.phys.uvic.ca/~babul/AstroCourses/P303/BB-slide.htm>
>>
>> Our Milky Way galaxy doesn?t form until May, and our solar system only
>> comes into being on the 9th of September. Life on Earth appears around
>> September 25, and life doesn?t reach land until December 21. In the next
>> week at this scale, we see amphibians, trees, reptiles, dinosaurs, mammals,
>> birds, and flowers. It?s not until the very last day of the year, at
>> 10:30PM, that the first humans appear. And in the final minute, all human
>> history whizzes by, from cave paintings and the invention of agriculture,
>> to the moon landing.
>>
>> On the time scale of the universe, humans are just the blink of an eye.
>>
>> BillK
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>>
>> BillK, thanks for that.
>>
>> I can tell you: Carl Sagan changed my life. I owe that man everything.
>> Dragons of Eden was a total mind-blower.
>>
>> Fun story: in 1980, video cassette recorders were the hot new thing. The
>> physics professor gave seminars every Tuesday night but I was a busy
>> engineering student with a new girlfriend (the one I have been married to
>> for 38 years) so I didn't go. My previous girl, with whom I had parted on
>> amicable terms, came up to us as we were walking across campus and said "Oh
>> you need to come to the physics seminar Tuesday, big doings, way big.
>> Everyone there said we should bring you next week."
>>
>> So, we went and she was right. It answered all the questions I had been
>> asking. The seminar was Carl Sagan's Cosmos. That caused my life to bounce
>> off in another direction by about a radian. Everything changed. I came out
>> of religious fundamentalism. Life is good. And that is what college is all
>> about, Charlie Brown.
>>
>> spike
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Sep 17 23:32:05 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 2022 16:32:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
Message-ID: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

Hey cool.  My son rigged up an Arduino with a three-axis linear
accelerometer/three-axis angular accelerometer.  I am astonished at how well
this cheap little IC works.  That Arduino is a 30 dollar processor and the
accelerometer was about eight bucks.  So now we are ready to try to rig up a
self-riding bicycle, or at least a first phase experimental version which
doesn't need to follow a road.  We can take it up to a sloped parking lot
where its only task is to stay upright.

 

Next we go down to the quarterly bicycle auction at the police department,
buy a 20 dollar bicycle and get this phase working.  Once we get that, we
figure out if we can add a white-line tracking routine.  If we get all that
going, we are ready to race down the back side of Mount Hamilton.

 

spike

 



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From ben at zaiboc.net  Sun Sep 18 08:40:11 2022
From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 09:40:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Ukrainian astronomers systematically studying UFOs over
 warzone
In-Reply-To: <mailman.211.1663457540.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.211.1663457540.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <83e97506-7f46-fb98-b84e-2074303939ed@zaiboc.net>

On 18/09/2022 00:32, Henry Rivera wrote:
> This is the opposite of them sending drones or lifeless machines.

I'm not going to comment on the whole subject of 'UFOs', but the above 
phrase caught my attention. I very much doubt that the proposed machines 
could be called 'lifeless'. We are machines, and I'd fully expect these 
to be more advanced ones, made out of different materials than we are.

We only have the habit of associating the word 'machine' with 'lifeless' 
because the ones we can make so far (apart from other humans, and we 
haven't figured out how that works yet) aren't alive. At some point, the 
machines we make will be very much alive. Probably more so than we 
water-and-protein machines.

What does the word 'life' mean anyway? It's really just a matter of 
complexity in particular kinds of systems, if you think about it (and if 
you don't subscribe to any magical 'lifeforce' ideas, which I'm sure 
most of us here don't. (Apart from the "an exact copy of you isn't you" 
crowd, of course. But let's not go there!)).

Ben

From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Sep 18 22:06:57 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 17:06:57 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>

Self-riding bike.  I am having trouble coming up with an image for that.
bill w

On Sat, Sep 17, 2022 at 6:34 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> Hey cool.  My son rigged up an Arduino with a three-axis linear
> accelerometer/three-axis angular accelerometer.  I am astonished at how
> well this cheap little IC works.  That Arduino is a 30 dollar processor and
> the accelerometer was about eight bucks.  So now we are ready to try to rig
> up a self-riding bicycle, or at least a first phase experimental version
> which doesn?t need to follow a road.  We can take it up to a sloped parking
> lot where its only task is to stay upright.
>
>
>
> Next we go down to the quarterly bicycle auction at the police department,
> buy a 20 dollar bicycle and get this phase working.  Once we get that, we
> figure out if we can add a white-line tracking routine.  If we get all that
> going, we are ready to race down the back side of Mount Hamilton.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From sjatkins at protonmail.com  Sun Sep 18 22:11:05 2022
From: sjatkins at protonmail.com (sjatkins)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 22:11:05 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <zIwBK85bkldNO98zAOTWBsGTTxI_XBmrIo_CSnhn8kMbQpJ25rlDlXtWtqYk-P6cVq2halaLFSs6jZs0Vhu2YXJEx1sNDyhOxnxQIGLSitg=@protonmail.com>

------- Original Message -------
On Saturday, September 17th, 2022 at 7:37 AM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing his philosophy, would happen much more often. Some people are just unchanged (hidebound conservatives) Young people should be liberals. bill w

Well, if you have hammered your basic views in a shape that you believe is quite serviceable I wouldn't advocate change for the sake of change. Self examination or what we used to call pan-critical rationality is needed. And on political flavors what happened to "up-wing"?

- samantha
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Sep 18 22:19:25 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 17:19:25 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <zIwBK85bkldNO98zAOTWBsGTTxI_XBmrIo_CSnhn8kMbQpJ25rlDlXtWtqYk-P6cVq2halaLFSs6jZs0Vhu2YXJEx1sNDyhOxnxQIGLSitg=@protonmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <zIwBK85bkldNO98zAOTWBsGTTxI_XBmrIo_CSnhn8kMbQpJ25rlDlXtWtqYk-P6cVq2halaLFSs6jZs0Vhu2YXJEx1sNDyhOxnxQIGLSitg=@protonmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEb2xeb50-npbWPRuhA9cEw2-8tRFH7-s93a1QeCAvwOVA@mail.gmail.com>

Samantha, I am assuming that as a person grows old, they will have life
experiences, real or read about, that conflict with their basic views.  Or,
their views may become even stronger as they experience life.

On Sun, Sep 18, 2022 at 5:15 PM sjatkins via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> ------- Original Message -------
> On Saturday, September 17th, 2022 at 7:37 AM, William Flynn Wallace via
> extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing his
> philosophy, would happen much more often. Some people are just unchanged
> (hidebound conservatives) Young people should be liberals. bill w
>
>
> Well, if you have hammered your basic views in a shape that you believe is
> quite serviceable I wouldn't advocate change for the sake of change.  Self
> examination or what we used to call pan-critical rationality is needed.
> And on political flavors what happened to "up-wing"?
>
> - samantha
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From brent.allsop at gmail.com  Sun Sep 18 22:29:42 2022
From: brent.allsop at gmail.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 16:29:42 -0600
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAK7-onuJFAw9R=MyjNq0=zF2DQmJO4CAeMCSDO3dW5_Q-vQ1Yg@mail.gmail.com>

[image: image.png]
My Porsch Taycan had an accelerometer next to the speedometer.
The blue dot in the middle would move around indicating your acceleration
in that direction.
It was fun to get it over 1G.  My record was 1.32 Gs, on a real sticky road.
I didn't like going over the speed limit, but I did like getting up to the
speed limit very fast.

Alas, I've sold that, and now have a lucid Air.  I wish the heck it had an
accelerometer.
Any chance I could use this to build something like that, and mount it on
the dashboard of my Lucid?




On Sun, Sep 18, 2022 at 4:08 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Self-riding bike.  I am having trouble coming up with an image for that.
> bill w
>
> On Sat, Sep 17, 2022 at 6:34 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Hey cool.  My son rigged up an Arduino with a three-axis linear
>> accelerometer/three-axis angular accelerometer.  I am astonished at how
>> well this cheap little IC works.  That Arduino is a 30 dollar processor and
>> the accelerometer was about eight bucks.  So now we are ready to try to rig
>> up a self-riding bicycle, or at least a first phase experimental version
>> which doesn?t need to follow a road.  We can take it up to a sloped parking
>> lot where its only task is to stay upright.
>>
>>
>>
>> Next we go down to the quarterly bicycle auction at the police
>> department, buy a 20 dollar bicycle and get this phase working.  Once we
>> get that, we figure out if we can add a white-line tracking routine.  If we
>> get all that going, we are ready to race down the back side of Mount
>> Hamilton.
>>
>>
>>
>> spike
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 18 23:35:26 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 16:35:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike

 

>?Self-riding bike.  I am having trouble coming up with an image for that.  bill w

 

Eh, imagine a big empty sloped parking lot.

 

Oh wait, Mississippi.  OK imagine driving north about 5 hours and finding an empty parking lot with a nice gentle slope.  Take a old junky bicycle up to the high end and roll it down.  Gyro effect of the wheels will keep it upright until it slows down to about a fast walking speed.

 

Now imagine software that reacts and keeps it upright until it is going slow walking speed.

 

OK now suppose phase 2 includes software that keeps the bicycle about 2 meters from the white line.  Get that going, then? we have a nice mountain nearby, Hamilton, elevation 4265 ft, drops a mile in the next 10:

 

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mt+Hamilton/@37.3351526,-121.66633,14z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x808e2a6e8c95b1eb:0x71ad0e968f8785b9!8m2!3d37.3418834!4d-121.6430017

 

Fun motorcycle road is that.  We would need to go out there with radios at about 0500, make sure no one is out there who would freak out to look in the mirror and see some invisible bicycle rider coming up on her ass.  Then we see how fast that bicycle would get going before catastrophic spectacular epic fail.  Ideally we could station proles right at the most likely hairpin failure sites to record the destruction.  Post to YouTube, get lotsa followers, sell ads, make a buttload.  More importantly, other amateur controls engineers would see it and want to play too.  Then we can race em!

 

Kewallllll?

 

spike

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 18 23:42:13 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 16:42:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <CAK7-onuJFAw9R=MyjNq0=zF2DQmJO4CAeMCSDO3dW5_Q-vQ1Yg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAK7-onuJFAw9R=MyjNq0=zF2DQmJO4CAeMCSDO3dW5_Q-vQ1Yg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00b901d8cbb8$47741300$d65c3900$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Brent Allsop via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike

 

 



My Porsch Taycan had an accelerometer next to the speedometer.

The blue dot in the middle would move around indicating your acceleration in that direction.

It was fun to get it over 1G.  My record was 1.32 Gs, on a real sticky road.

I didn't like going over the speed limit, but I did like getting up to the speed limit very fast.

 

Alas, I've sold that, and now have a lucid Air.  I wish the heck it had an accelerometer.

Any chance I could use this to build something like that, and mount it on the dashboard of my Lucid?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brent!  Taycan?  Lucid?  My apologies, I have treated you with insufficient respect sir!

 

But you wouldn?t need to build it.  Anything this easy to do already has a commercial product:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Matrix-3-Axis-Car-Performance-Accelerometer/dp/B000KZRE5E

 

There are probably a lotta products like this.  If they were in your Taycster, somebody was mass producing them.  Shouldn?t be hard to find.

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Sep 18 23:47:41 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 16:47:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar
In-Reply-To: <zIwBK85bkldNO98zAOTWBsGTTxI_XBmrIo_CSnhn8kMbQpJ25rlDlXtWtqYk-P6cVq2halaLFSs6jZs0Vhu2YXJEx1sNDyhOxnxQIGLSitg=@protonmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQXsXqjpCaNdu6YzEDU8JPOLujMX_STUjRU+qHX=K-Dw@mail.gmail.com>
 <003c01d8ca14$5f6d39a0$1e47ace0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYekLMwg8QyQbE5OFiLHxdavkAOKUvmGcjV7J-c_W8vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <zIwBK85bkldNO98zAOTWBsGTTxI_XBmrIo_CSnhn8kMbQpJ25rlDlXtWtqYk-P6cVq2halaLFSs6jZs0Vhu2YXJEx1sNDyhOxnxQIGLSitg=@protonmail.com>
Message-ID: <00c101d8cbb9$0ad35540$2079ffc0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of sjatkins via extropy-chat
Sent: Sunday, 18 September, 2022 3:11 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: sjatkins <sjatkins at protonmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Carl Sagan Cosmic Calendar

 

 

 

------- Original Message -------
On Saturday, September 17th, 2022 at 7:37 AM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:




>>?It would be great if Spike' experience in college, radically changing his philosophy, would happen much more often. Some people are just unchanged (hidebound conservatives) Young people should be liberals. bill w

 

>?Well, if you have hammered your basic views in a shape that you believe is quite serviceable I wouldn't advocate change for the sake of change.  Self examination or what we used to call pan-critical rationality is needed.    And on political flavors what happened to "up-wing"?  

 

- Samantha

 

Ja, I thoughta that too.  Some students will show up at college with a perfectly functional and logical world view.  I work with students who seem to have their heads screwed on right who haven?t even started the application process.

 

My own view of life back then was functional enough for everyday living, just outdated by about a century for the purpose of science.  I see a lot of local teens who are way better adapted to the modern world than I remember being at their age.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep 19 02:18:48 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 19:18:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <011901d8cbce$27d6a6f0$7783f4d0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 



 

>?OK ? we have a nice mountain nearby, Hamilton, elevation 4265 ft, drops a mile in the next 10:

 

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mt+Hamilton/@37.3351526,-121.66633,14z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x808e2a6e8c95b1eb:0x71ad0e968f8785b9!8m2!3d37.3418834!4d-121.6430017

 

>? make sure no one is out there who would freak out to look in the mirror and see some invisible bicycle rider coming up on her ass?.  Then we can race em!...spike

 

 

 

OK cool, so suppose I can get this bicycle to track the white line.  We take off the handlebar, the pedals, the seat, eeeeverything we don?t need, get it offa there, leave only the frame, forks, and the computer.  A bicycle rolling resistance is very low and you get something with as small cross section as a stripped bike, oh that rig would hauuuul aaaaasssss down a nice slope.

 

But wait, there?s more.  We could bolt on a heavy hunk of steel once we make dang sure we can do this without smacking some hapless prole coming the other way of course (Clarence what?s that thing comAAAEEEEE!)   I can envision getting something like that kiting down at twice the legal freeway speed limit.  What I don?t know is how far it would travel and could you ever find it if you got er going that fast.

 

Hey cool!  We get our motorcycle racer buddies to chase it with those helmet cam rigs, a GoPro.  Or hey, I have a GoPro, I bet we could get some spectacular video.

 

spike  

 

 

 

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep 19 04:01:18 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 21:01:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <011901d8cbce$27d6a6f0$7783f4d0$@rainier66.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>
 <011901d8cbce$27d6a6f0$7783f4d0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <012201d8cbdc$795077f0$6bf167d0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
?

 

>? make sure no one is out there who would freak out to look in the mirror and see some invisible bicycle rider coming up on her ass?.  Then we can race em!...spike

 

 

 

OK more ideas.  We don?t usually think too much about wind resistance on bicycles unless you are an athlete.  But if you have gotten way into the triple digits (American triple digits, 200 in km/h) on a motorcycle you already know how powerful wind resistance can be.

 

Think about the cross section area a stripped bicycle presents to the wind.  You have the steering crown up top, two forks and a front wheel.  For this application, I could (maybe) cut off one of the forks which might reduce frontal area by about a quarter.  We get the crank off of there, the gear cluster, all that stuff and maybe go to the effort of making trailing-edge tapers out of bondo or something.

 

Another idea: the rear bearings on a bicycle are designed for a lot more load than the front.  Go out to your bike, turn it upside down, spin both front and rear wheel, notice the rear will slow down and stop way before the front wheel.  OK then, I could remove the rear wheel, replace it with a front wheel from another bike, reduce rolling resistance.

 

Sheesh I might be getting way out ahead of myself.  I don?t even know for sure if I am man enough to write a workable control system to make it ride upright, never mind follow the white line.

 

spike

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep 19 04:32:23 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2022 21:32:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] booster catcher
Message-ID: <002201d8cbe0$d0bb7a90$72326fb0$@rainier66.com>

 

It might be feasible to try to catch a hydrogen/Lox burning booster stage in
a net out at sea.  I wouldn't bet on it but I am thinking of Musk's
kerosene/Lox upright landers going back to launch site and a third possibly
H/Lox stage which lands in a net most of the way over toward Africa in the
south Atlantic.

 

The notion would be to let that nearly empty stage fall sideways most of the
way down, then turn vertical axis and fire to decelerate at the endgame,
then (possibly) switching the engine back off at about 100 meters altitude
and landing sideways in the net.

 

spike

 

 



 

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep 19 14:59:26 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022 07:59:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] self rider
Message-ID: <007301d8cc38$6a559c60$3f00d520$@rainier66.com>

 

This is about an order of magnitude more sophisticated than I intend to try.

 

The fun stuff starts about 7:45 in this video:

 

https://www.designboom.com/technology/self-driving-bicycle-huawei-engineers-
operate-unmanned-06-14-2021/

 

The gyro stabilization is cool, but I want something cheap so we can take
risks with it.

 

spike

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Mon Sep 19 15:08:42 2022
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022 11:08:42 -0400
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <012201d8cbdc$795077f0$6bf167d0$@rainier66.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>
 <011901d8cbce$27d6a6f0$7783f4d0$@rainier66.com>
 <012201d8cbdc$795077f0$6bf167d0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLv=4L7CE5XOamaXHxR=aS0dvdOJwt9geSPwbuMgGnTRA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Sep 19, 2022, 12:03 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Sheesh I might be getting way out ahead of myself.  I don?t even know for
> sure if I am man enough to write a workable control system to make it ride
> upright, never mind follow the white line.
>
By the time you chop the bike for wind resistance (to go faster?) you don't
have a "self riding bike" but instead a possibly suboptimal vehicle for
your computer and camera.  If you're not pursuing e-bike to remove the need
for downhill gravity, then I propose you might as well be using a
skateboard.

Oh wait, you wanted the controls challenge of keeping the bike from falling
over and skateboard is too stable?

Perhaps you could get a rollerblade and return this experiment to the
absurdity of a pair of rollerblade racers sans rider?

Fwiw, I'm not sure the ideal use is racer.  I think you want a pizza
delivery bot.  Flying drones get all the chicks, but the day to day is more
realistically a dull "workhorse" of reliability and efficiency.

>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep 19 16:07:34 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022 09:07:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLv=4L7CE5XOamaXHxR=aS0dvdOJwt9geSPwbuMgGnTRA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>
 <011901d8cbce$27d6a6f0$7783f4d0$@rainier66.com>
 <012201d8cbdc$795077f0$6bf167d0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdbLv=4L7CE5XOamaXHxR=aS0dvdOJwt9geSPwbuMgGnTRA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009001d8cc41$eecf6760$cc6e3620$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike

 

On Mon, Sep 19, 2022, 12:03 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Sheesh I might be getting way out ahead of myself.  I don?t even know for sure if I am man enough to write a workable control system to make it ride upright, never mind follow the white line.

>?By the time you chop the bike for wind resistance (to go faster?) you don't have a "self riding bike" but instead a possibly suboptimal vehicle for your computer and camera.  If you're not pursuing e-bike to remove the need for downhill gravity, then I propose you might as well be using a skateboard?

 

I thought of that but there is no control system challenge to it really.  My scheme for distance keeping from the white line depends on triangulation, so you need cameras separated vertically.  A skateboard is poorly suited.  Also: I can get old junky bicycles from the local constables for nearly nothing, typically ten bucks, or even free if no one buys it at the quarterly auction.  I don?t recall seeing skateboards down there.

 

 

>?Perhaps you could get a rollerblade and return this experiment to the absurdity of a pair of rollerblade racers sans rider?

 

That would definitely look cool, ja?

 

>?Fwiw, I'm not sure the ideal use is racer.  I think you want a pizza delivery bot?

 

Ja, I am not really looking to make a tool, but rather just a toy.  It would be fun to trigger a kind of sport where amateur controls guys could do time trials and compete with each other.  I see it as evolutionary psychology Mike.  We evolved by out competing other tribes, other societies, other species.  Now, competition is as much an instinct in us as playing fetch to the golden retriever pup.

 

>?Flying drones get all the chicks, but the day to day is more realistically a dull "workhorse" of reliability and efficiency?

 

Ja, there are electric bikes one could rig up that I think will be a lot more practical than flying drones.  But if we go down that road, a three-wheel electric rig like flabmeisters use to navigate the aisles at Walmart is better than a bicycle.  

 

The three wheelers can stop anywhere, they can carry more chips and twinkies to the flabmeisters? homes, they have good range, they aren?t even very expensive, because used ones are available at reasonable prices.  By the time the flabsters can no longer walk, they typically only have a few years of heartspan left.  Oh that is a grim way to look at it, but there is no need to sugarcoat that donut.

 

In any case, we are talking two different things.  I think a three-wheel adipose-hauler is a better delivery tool than a flying drone for small payload deliveries (bag of chips and a box of donuts, with a two-liter bottle of soda, whatever load of toxic food they want.)  But I still want to try the ghost bike notion.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Sep 19 17:06:48 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022 18:06:48 +0100
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <009001d8cc41$eecf6760$cc6e3620$@rainier66.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>
 <011901d8cbce$27d6a6f0$7783f4d0$@rainier66.com>
 <012201d8cbdc$795077f0$6bf167d0$@rainier66.com>
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 <009001d8cc41$eecf6760$cc6e3620$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjr4sei-xUnqT7C=hZF_FRz1g+mWb-73ZRLOnMg6yUBFw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 19 Sept 2022 at 17:10, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
<snip>
>
> In any case, we are talking two different things.  I think a three-wheel adipose-hauler is a better delivery tool than a flying drone for small payload deliveries (bag of chips and a box of donuts, with a two-liter bottle of soda, whatever load of toxic food they want.)  But I still want to try the ghost bike notion.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I thought they already had delivery robots wandering about US cities?

<https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/a-video-shows-a-food-delivery-robot-scooting-its-way-under-police-tape-and-into-a-crime-scene/ar-AA11Poha>

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep 19 17:43:14 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022 10:43:14 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjr4sei-xUnqT7C=hZF_FRz1g+mWb-73ZRLOnMg6yUBFw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00f801d8caed$b2a0c450$17e24cf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEahG0BbTy_SM3VXQtSrMsp0BgW1L0fZLbh3zAAnT7j2JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b201d8cbb7$5505b240$ff1116c0$@rainier66.com>
 <011901d8cbce$27d6a6f0$7783f4d0$@rainier66.com>
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 <CAOJFdbLv=4L7CE5XOamaXHxR=aS0dvdOJwt9geSPwbuMgGnTRA@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAL_armjr4sei-xUnqT7C=hZF_FRz1g+mWb-73ZRLOnMg6yUBFw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00c701d8cc4f$4be82f60$e3b88e20$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] 3 axis accelerometer for ghost bike

On Mon, 19 Sept 2022 at 17:10, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
<snip>
>
> In any case, we are talking two different things.  I think a three-wheel
adipose-hauler is a better delivery tool than a flying drone for small
payload deliveries (bag of chips and a box of donuts, with a two-liter
bottle of soda, whatever load of toxic food they want.)  But I still want to
try the ghost bike notion.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...I thought they already had delivery robots wandering about US cities?

<https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/a-video-shows-a-food-delivery-rob
ot-scooting-its-way-under-police-tape-and-into-a-crime-scene/ar-AA11Poha>

BillK

_______________________________________________



They aughta have these robots in Palo Alto or Los Altos Hills.  Their most
serious crimes are people ripping the tag off of a pillow which Amazon just
delivered.

spike


From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Sep 20 04:17:12 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2022 21:17:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] arduinx running
Message-ID: <003001d8cca7$dc59d870$950d8950$@rainier66.com>

 

Hey cool.  My son and I got his Arduino going with a 3-axis accelerometer
and a 3-axis angular accelerometer, so I ordered one, 28 bucks!

 

I found a free C++ compiler which you see running in the background there on
my monitor.

 

Now I am fooling with some code and realizing that the way the guy did the
ghost bike with the longitudinal axis flywheel is really the easiest way to
do this task, by far.

 

It might not be the lowest cost way.

 

 



 

But something did occur to me: I could use a flywheel off of any old engine
and I have a variable-speed  DC motor to which I could rig an interface.

 

If you do it that way, you wouldn't even need an actuator on the steering
crown.  You would just steer it by torquing that flywheel motor and letting
the front wheel do what it will.

 

That would defeat my cool lead-lag control system I had in mind, but I don't
believe in the old aerospace procedure of making stuff as complicated as
possible just because it is cool to flex one's engineering muscle.

 

spike

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Sep 21 14:48:40 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2022 09:48:40 -0500
Subject: [ExI] thought for the day - paranoia
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEasnOFBwp+FwNvAKTE0msCw50sST8F92kDrTm4q4JYnxA@mail.gmail.com>

I read where AFrican tribes elected their witch doctor (who was NOT a
doctor of witches) on the basis of whether they had delusions and
hallucinations.

A paranoid schizophrenic can have some really wild images and voices
talking to him.

I wonder how many religions got their start from psychotics?  'a wheel in a
wheel - way up in the middle of the air'.

bill w
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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep 21 15:50:14 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2022 08:50:14 -0700
Subject: [ExI] thought for the day - paranoia
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEasnOFBwp+FwNvAKTE0msCw50sST8F92kDrTm4q4JYnxA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEasnOFBwp+FwNvAKTE0msCw50sST8F92kDrTm4q4JYnxA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003301d8cdd1$d764dc40$862e94c0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
?

 

>?I wonder how many religions got their start from psychotics?  'a wheel in a wheel - way up in the middle of the air'.  

 

bill w

 

 

 

 

For the curious, Billw references Ezekiel chapter 1 verses 4 thru end of hallucination.  Some have suggest young Zeke was describing a helicopter.  I think he was describing a bad acid trip but hey, I wasn?t around then.

 

The ?way up in the middle of the air? is the second line of the Woody Guthrie song ?Ezekiel Saw the Wheel? which was a big hit on the Spiritual Top Forty a long time ago.  Guthrie didn?t write it, he just recorded it.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Sep 21 23:00:25 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2022 18:00:25 -0500
Subject: [ExI] thought for the day - paranoia
In-Reply-To: <003301d8cdd1$d764dc40$862e94c0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEasnOFBwp+FwNvAKTE0msCw50sST8F92kDrTm4q4JYnxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <003301d8cdd1$d764dc40$862e94c0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbzW908y68vB+-fPc2LNSNNDsGVcB8XYuuNqJpaxSFFiw@mail.gmail.com>

No example comes to mind (common these days), but I am often informed that
the song I like was not written by the singer who sang it.  Gregg Alman
covered others' songs and I always thought he wrote them. Throws me off a
bit.  Wheels - there is a choral version like a Negro spiritual that I have
sung several times  One of my favorite genres of music.  Did you ever hear
the group Chanticleer?  (listen to any choral music?)  All male with
falsettos singing the women's parts. I sang in many choirs, religious and
secular (community choirs) and led a few. bill w

On Wed, Sep 21, 2022 at 10:52 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On Behalf
> Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *?*
>
>
>
> >?I wonder how many religions got their start from psychotics?  'a wheel
> in a wheel - way up in the middle of the air'.
>
>
>
> bill w
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> For the curious, Billw references Ezekiel chapter 1 verses 4 thru end of
> hallucination.  Some have suggest young Zeke was describing a helicopter.
> I think he was describing a bad acid trip but hey, I wasn?t around then.
>
>
>
> The ?way up in the middle of the air? is the second line of the Woody
> Guthrie song ?Ezekiel Saw the Wheel? which was a big hit on the Spiritual
> Top Forty a long time ago.  Guthrie didn?t write it, he just recorded it.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From natasha at natashavita-more.com  Thu Sep 22 21:19:23 2022
From: natasha at natashavita-more.com (Natasha natashavita-more.com)
Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2022 21:19:23 +0000
Subject: [ExI] H+ Academy Sunday,
 Sept 25th with Michael Rose: Can We Stop Aging? What's Next in
 Longevity?
In-Reply-To: <SJ0PR22MB2959202AEBD16AC6FBC6BAB9874E9@SJ0PR22MB2959.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>
References: <20220922210234.757.89820@079247a900e5>
 <SJ0PR22MB2959202AEBD16AC6FBC6BAB9874E9@SJ0PR22MB2959.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <SJ0PR22MB29597E07CC72B27D0BBAA498874E9@SJ0PR22MB2959.namprd22.prod.outlook.com>

If you have not registered yet, please click the easy link<https://www.eventbrite.com/e/h-academy-roundtable-tickets-415000586927>!

[cid:c1e5de36-547c-4423-b9dc-35b8c9a0bdf6]



[Eventbrite]

This was sent to you by Humanity+, Inc.



Greetings Attendees!

We look forward to seeing you this Sunday at our event featuring Michael Rose<https://clicks.eventbrite.com/f/a/tnYkmWt3o5Vi3xSfOdYx9A~~/AAQxAQA~/RgRlDgDqP0RGaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZXZlbnRicml0ZS5jb20vZS9oLWFjYWRlbXktcm91bmR0YWJsZS10aWNrZXRzLTQxNTAwMDU4NjkyN1cDc3BjQgpjImrNLGMBKt6AUhxuYXRhc2hhQG5hdGFzaGF2aXRhLW1vcmUuY29tWAQAAAAA>. Please mark your calendars and save the date!

  *   DATE:  Sunday, September 25th
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H+ Academy Roundtable <https://clicks.eventbrite.com/f/a/QCOa7gTw8yC8Z4PCbZJ1NQ~~/AAQxAQA~/RgRlDgDqP0ShaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZXZlbnRicml0ZS5jb20vZS9oLWFjYWRlbXktcm91bmR0YWJsZS10aWNrZXRzLTQxNTAwMDU4NjkyNz91dG1fc291cmNlPWV2ZW50YnJpdGUmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249ZXZlbnRfdGVzdF9yZW1pbmRlciZ1dG1fdGVybT1ldmVudG5hbWVXA3NwY0IKYyJqzSxjASregFIcbmF0YXNoYUBuYXRhc2hhdml0YS1tb3JlLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~>

Sunday, September 25, 2022 from 11:00 AM to 12:30 PM (PDT)

Organized by Humanity+, Inc.<https://clicks.eventbrite.com/f/a/DDOP_E6HHAmTCnu-CmdQqw~~/AAQxAQA~/RgRlDgDqP0SOaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZXZlbnRicml0ZS5jb20vby9odW1hbml0eS1pbmMtMTcyOTE0NTk4Mjc_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1ldmVudGJyaXRlJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPWV2ZW50X3Rlc3RfcmVtaW5kZXImdXRtX3Rlcm09b3JnbmFtZVcDc3BjQgpjImrNLGMBKt6AUhxuYXRhc2hhQG5hdGFzaGF2aXRhLW1vcmUuY29tWAQAAAAA>




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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Sep 23 21:44:54 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2022 14:44:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] webb image of neptune
Message-ID: <001101d8cf95$b8106ab0$28314010$@rainier66.com>

 

Is this cool or what?

 

 



 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Sep 23 22:31:47 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2022 23:31:47 +0100
Subject: [ExI] webb image of neptune
In-Reply-To: <001101d8cf95$b8106ab0$28314010$@rainier66.com>
References: <001101d8cf95$b8106ab0$28314010$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhM9-yOdMWxnk4G9z-HfiwxFMtjROYqfA0FWcucCqJSuQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, 23 Sept 2022 at 22:47, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Is this cool or what?
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Phil Plait explains what is in this image.
<https://www.syfy.com/syfy-wire/bad-astronomy-jwst-spies-on-neptune>

Quote:
JWST?s Neptune: The best infrared view in 30 years
JWST spies on Neptune and sees storms, rings, and moons.
September 23, 2022

A reminder that this shot is a combination of images taken in the
near-infrared, wavelengths of light longer than the human eye can see.
The physics of what we see is a little different than that from
visible-light images, which naturally makes this a lot more fun to
investigate.
------------------

Spectacular, indeed,

BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat Sep 24 16:44:12 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2022 11:44:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] little humor
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZ6Fpn+YesW7CfP4Od+DNY+P9ZrYmW17k4FSEbhNj1XGg@mail.gmail.com>

I went Googling for a book I remember reading (but not the title)  So here
is what I searched for:  "hung like chipmunks".

It did not give the book I was hunting, but it did give me this:

Hung Like A Chipmunk at Amazon? - Shop Outdoor D?cor
<https://www.amazon.com/hung-like-chipmunk/s?k=hung+like+a+chipmunk>

You reckon Amazon needs a filter or two?   bill w
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From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Sep 25 16:00:06 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2022 09:00:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Logo of the National Intelligence Manager for Aviation
Message-ID: <20220925090006.Horde.l0-Q3aUPyl1mzB_23cS-Vie@sollegro.com>


Here is the official DOD website for the National Intelligence Manager  
for Aviation (NIM-A).

https://www.airdomainintelligence.mil/

Examine their logo.

All the aircraft silhouettes depicted have been identified by the  
Internet community except for the blue one and the saucer. The saucer  
looks very similar to the one I saw while I was in the Army in 1990  
during a large Combined Live Fire Exercise (CALFX). Tanks, artillery,  
mortars, and helicopters had been blowing stuff up in the impact area  
for hours. Then, when we took a break to eat, the saucer flew around  
silently like it was surveying the damage. The blue one might be one  
of LockMart's skunk works projects, eh Spike?

Stuart LaForge






From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Sep 26 00:06:59 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2022 17:06:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Logo of the National Intelligence Manager for Aviation
In-Reply-To: <20220925090006.Horde.l0-Q3aUPyl1mzB_23cS-Vie@sollegro.com>
References: <20220925090006.Horde.l0-Q3aUPyl1mzB_23cS-Vie@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <019201d8d13b$e694d9a0$b3be8ce0$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] Logo of the National Intelligence Manager for Aviation


>...Here is the official DOD website for the National Intelligence Manager
for Aviation (NIM-A).

https://www.airdomainintelligence.mil/

>...Examine their logo.... The blue one might be one of LockMart's skunk
works projects, eh Spike?

Stuart LaForge

_______________________________________________



Well, ya never know...

spike


From avant at sollegro.com  Wed Sep 28 12:51:27 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 05:51:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
Message-ID: <20220928055127.Horde.Ocgw8RhFo-3SmBfL6pg-1k6@sollegro.com>


https://neurosciencenews.com/coffee-longevity-21524/

https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwac189/6704995


Drinking coffee has been found to reduce the risk of cardiovascular  
disease and heart arrhythmias. 2-3 cups of ground coffee per day had  
the greatest effect but both instant and decaffeinated also showed  
lesser effects. The study involved nearly half a million participants  
with a median age of 58 years.

The greatest effect was seen in those that drank 2-3 cups of ground  
coffee a day, where a 27% lower likelihood of death from any cause was  
seen during a median of 12.5 years of follow up. Since decaffeinated  
coffee works too albeit not as strongly, it is unlikely to be related  
to caffeine but rather to one of the more than 100 phytochemicals  
present in coffee.

Stuart LaForge



From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep 28 14:20:29 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 07:20:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
In-Reply-To: <20220928055127.Horde.Ocgw8RhFo-3SmBfL6pg-1k6@sollegro.com>
References: <20220928055127.Horde.Ocgw8RhFo-3SmBfL6pg-1k6@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <003501d8d345$76c27810$64476830$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity


https://neurosciencenews.com/coffee-longevity-21524/

https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwac189/6
704995


>...Drinking coffee has been found to reduce the risk of cardiovascular
disease and heart arrhythmias...

Stuart LaForge


_______________________________________________


Thanks for that Stuart, I hope it is true.  Whether or not coffee adds years
to our lives, it definitely adds life to our years.

spike


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Sep 28 19:29:59 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 14:29:59 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
In-Reply-To: <003501d8d345$76c27810$64476830$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220928055127.Horde.Ocgw8RhFo-3SmBfL6pg-1k6@sollegro.com>
 <003501d8d345$76c27810$64476830$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbmq+qr=HxZXmCubOWV0stfz_Kd-UjLQUwHrAa-tKamQQ@mail.gmail.com>

It definitely adds life to our years - spike
and to our lower colons - bill w

On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 9:22 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> ...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
> Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
>
>
> https://neurosciencenews.com/coffee-longevity-21524/
>
>
> https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwac189/6
> 704995
>
>
> >...Drinking coffee has been found to reduce the risk of cardiovascular
> disease and heart arrhythmias...
>
> Stuart LaForge
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
> Thanks for that Stuart, I hope it is true.  Whether or not coffee adds
> years
> to our lives, it definitely adds life to our years.
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Sep 28 19:55:57 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 12:55:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbmq+qr=HxZXmCubOWV0stfz_Kd-UjLQUwHrAa-tKamQQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20220928055127.Horde.Ocgw8RhFo-3SmBfL6pg-1k6@sollegro.com>
 <003501d8d345$76c27810$64476830$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEbmq+qr=HxZXmCubOWV0stfz_Kd-UjLQUwHrAa-tKamQQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000d01d8d374$5434c080$fc9e4180$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity

 

>>?It definitely adds life to our years - spike

>?and to our lower colons - bill w

 

 

 

Ja it affects people in different ways.

 

It is a mistake to think of coffee as caffeine soup, or hot water with one active ingredient.  I have always thought there is far more to it, as evidenced by the observation that if a prole devours a cup of coffee it somehow acts different than if she devours two cups of tea with the caffeine levels matched.  It could be it is psychological (Billw, this is your territory, me lad.)  We have long associated coffee with the first flavor of the morning, get up and get moving.

 

But here?s one on my way out the door: recently I discovered the value of light roasted coffee.  It is marketed very poorly in my opinion.  They sometimes call it donut shop style.  Eh, reject, terrible advertising.  Reasoning: using the light roast makes it to where you can use more coffee in the machine without making it taste burnt, which means more of whatever chemical or psychological magic that coffee does to us.  Use the lighter roast, put in half again more scoops into the machine, you get some really whoop-ass coffee, a marvelous rich flavor in a most delightful coffee-ey way.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 9:22 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:


...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity


https://neurosciencenews.com/coffee-longevity-21524/

https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwac189/6
704995




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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Sep 29 00:21:55 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 19:21:55 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
In-Reply-To: <000d01d8d374$5434c080$fc9e4180$@rainier66.com>
References: <20220928055127.Horde.Ocgw8RhFo-3SmBfL6pg-1k6@sollegro.com>
 <003501d8d345$76c27810$64476830$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEbmq+qr=HxZXmCubOWV0stfz_Kd-UjLQUwHrAa-tKamQQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <000d01d8d374$5434c080$fc9e4180$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbFe1n5MdkfMF5n_KrxxEy=ff4BUtYPZypRGifY2AE09g@mail.gmail.com>

I didn't know you were a coffeeist.  I buy various beans, roast them
myself, mix and match, and use all settings between blond and fairly dark,
but not French roast. I'll never run out of combinations to try.  I add
decaf sometimes.

 Sweetmarias.com is my supplier.  They give a recommendation as to just how
dark to roast them.  I like the 'gesha' and the honey processed beans.
 Also Yirgacheffe.  Where coffee was first discovered - Ethiopa.

Coffee beans have over 1000 chemicals in them, who knows what they do? Tea
leaves are probably just as complex.

There probably are psychological reasons for the difference between tea and
coffee drinkers.   bill w

On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 2:58 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *?*> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
>
>
>
> >>?It definitely adds life to our years - spike
>
> >?and to our lower colons - bill w
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Ja it affects people in different ways.
>
>
>
> It is a mistake to think of coffee as caffeine soup, or hot water with one
> active ingredient.  I have always thought there is far more to it, as
> evidenced by the observation that if a prole devours a cup of coffee it
> somehow acts different than if she devours two cups of tea with the
> caffeine levels matched.  It could be it is psychological (Billw, this is
> your territory, me lad.)  We have long associated coffee with the first
> flavor of the morning, get up and get moving.
>
>
>
> But here?s one on my way out the door: recently I discovered the value of
> light roasted coffee.  It is marketed very poorly in my opinion.  They
> sometimes call it donut shop style.  Eh, reject, terrible advertising.
> Reasoning: using the light roast makes it to where you can use more coffee
> in the machine without making it taste burnt, which means more of whatever
> chemical or psychological magic that coffee does to us.  Use the lighter
> roast, put in half again more scoops into the machine, you get some really
> whoop-ass coffee, a marvelous rich flavor in a most delightful coffee-ey
> way.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 9:22 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>
> ...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
> Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
>
>
> https://neurosciencenews.com/coffee-longevity-21524/
>
>
> https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwac189/6
> 704995
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 29 00:39:35 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 17:39:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbFe1n5MdkfMF5n_KrxxEy=ff4BUtYPZypRGifY2AE09g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20220928055127.Horde.Ocgw8RhFo-3SmBfL6pg-1k6@sollegro.com>
 <003501d8d345$76c27810$64476830$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEbmq+qr=HxZXmCubOWV0stfz_Kd-UjLQUwHrAa-tKamQQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <000d01d8d374$5434c080$fc9e4180$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEbFe1n5MdkfMF5n_KrxxEy=ff4BUtYPZypRGifY2AE09g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004f01d8d39b$f33925f0$d9ab71d0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Sent: Wednesday, 28 September, 2022 5:22 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity

 

>?I didn't know you were a coffeeist?

 

Im not really, but I do enjoy guzzling the stuff.  It?s my only drug.

 

>?Coffee beans have over 1000 chemicals in them, who knows what they do? Tea leaves are probably just as complex?

 

I wasn?t aware of that but kinda suspected there must be a lotta psychoactive stuff in there, in trace amounts.  My theory on it is that the coffee plant had millions of years to evolve a seed that beasts generally do not like to devour.  A bitter flavor often works, but some beasts may develop a liking for it (we did.)  The stimulating effect of caffeine is something that most beasts might find offensive, but we like it.  

 

That chemical defense that one particular very capable species adores turned out to be just the right thing, for coffee managed to replicate itself endlessly as a result. 

  

 

>?There probably are psychological reasons for the difference between tea and coffee drinkers.   bill w

 

 

Ja, thanks for that Billw.

 

 

 

 

 

On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 2:58 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity

 

>>?It definitely adds life to our years - spike

>?and to our lower colons - bill w

 

 

 

Ja it affects people in different ways.

 

It is a mistake to think of coffee as caffeine soup, or hot water with one active ingredient.  I have always thought there is far more to it, as evidenced by the observation that if a prole devours a cup of coffee it somehow acts different than if she devours two cups of tea with the caffeine levels matched.  It could be it is psychological (Billw, this is your territory, me lad.)  We have long associated coffee with the first flavor of the morning, get up and get moving.

 

But here?s one on my way out the door: recently I discovered the value of light roasted coffee.  It is marketed very poorly in my opinion.  They sometimes call it donut shop style.  Eh, reject, terrible advertising.  Reasoning: using the light roast makes it to where you can use more coffee in the machine without making it taste burnt, which means more of whatever chemical or psychological magic that coffee does to us.  Use the lighter roast, put in half again more scoops into the machine, you get some really whoop-ass coffee, a marvelous rich flavor in a most delightful coffee-ey way.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 9:22 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:


...> On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity


https://neurosciencenews.com/coffee-longevity-21524/

https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwac189/6
704995



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From avant at sollegro.com  Thu Sep 29 01:40:27 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2022 18:40:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
Message-ID: <20220928184027.Horde.J46_qYObWYSvuYeGkPq4Yyp@sollegro.com>

Quoting BillW:


> I didn't know you were a coffeeist.  I buy various beans, roast them
> myself, mix and match, and use all settings between blond and fairly dark,
> but not French roast. I'll never run out of combinations to try.  I add
> decaf sometimes.

> Sweetmarias.com is my supplier.  They give a recommendation as to just how
> dark to roast them.  I like the 'gesha' and the honey processed beans.
> Also Yirgacheffe.  Where coffee was first discovered - Ethiopa.

> Coffee beans have over 1000 chemicals in them, who knows what they do? Tea
> leaves are probably just as complex.

> There probably are psychological reasons for the difference between tea and
> coffee drinkers.   bill w

What are the differences between coffee and tea drinkers? I happen to  
drink both, coffee in the morning and tea in the evening. As you seem  
quite the coffee aficionado, have you or would you try kopi luwak?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopi_luwak

I mean it must be good coffee since it was already consumed once by a  
fellow coffee-lover. Plus it is considered by some to be the "cruelest  
coffee". And you can get it on sale for less than $1 USD per gram.

https://cluwak.com

What's not to love? ;)

Stuart LaForge



From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Sep 29 10:54:16 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 11:54:16 +0100
Subject: [ExI] AGI could be arriving sooner than expected
Message-ID: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>

Long article on Less Wrong website.
<https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon>

Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
by porby   28th Sep 2022     33 comments (so far)

Quote:
I think there is little time left before someone builds AGI (median ~2030).
Once upon a time, I didn't think this.
This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and
insights that collapsed my estimates.

The core ideas are as follows:

1. We've already captured way too much of intelligence with way too
little effort.
2. Everything points towards us capturing way more of intelligence
with very little additional effort.
3. Trying to create a self-consistent worldview that handles all
available evidence seems to force very weird conclusions.
-----------------


Looking at the chaos happening around the world, I think we need AGI
as soon as possible to sort the mess out.

BillK

From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Sep 29 12:49:07 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 07:49:07 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Coffee consumption linked to increased longevity
In-Reply-To: <20220928184027.Horde.J46_qYObWYSvuYeGkPq4Yyp@sollegro.com>
References: <20220928184027.Horde.J46_qYObWYSvuYeGkPq4Yyp@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZOYfutNU-6XFPBg6vyLkWqYoSLBiD94WtNFo_6V+esgA@mail.gmail.com>

I have read of it and think it's hilarious.  Something for the
superrich and/or pretentious to talk about at parties.  I would definitely
try it if the price came way, way down.  I assume the bean is intact, of
course.  Just wash it off and grind it.  I am not easily disgusted.   bill w

On Wed, Sep 28, 2022 at 8:42 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Quoting BillW:
>
>
> > I didn't know you were a coffeeist.  I buy various beans, roast them
> > myself, mix and match, and use all settings between blond and fairly
> dark,
> > but not French roast. I'll never run out of combinations to try.  I add
> > decaf sometimes.
>
> > Sweetmarias.com is my supplier.  They give a recommendation as to just
> how
> > dark to roast them.  I like the 'gesha' and the honey processed beans.
> > Also Yirgacheffe.  Where coffee was first discovered - Ethiopa.
>
> > Coffee beans have over 1000 chemicals in them, who knows what they do?
> Tea
> > leaves are probably just as complex.
>
> > There probably are psychological reasons for the difference between tea
> and
> > coffee drinkers.   bill w
>
> What are the differences between coffee and tea drinkers? I happen to
> drink both, coffee in the morning and tea in the evening. As you seem
> quite the coffee aficionado, have you or would you try kopi luwak?
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopi_luwak
>
> I mean it must be good coffee since it was already consumed once by a
> fellow coffee-lover. Plus it is considered by some to be the "cruelest
> coffee". And you can get it on sale for less than $1 USD per gram.
>
> https://cluwak.com
>
> What's not to love? ;)
>
> Stuart LaForge
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 29 13:48:59 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 06:48:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] ian came home
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>

 

 

The eye of Ian is right over top where I cheerfully squandered my tragically
misspent youth.  My mother I already know is OK because of the elevation of
her house and the trees were just trimmed last summer.  By brother is at
elevation 8 ft, so he might have some flooding.  We have heard from John
Clark: he is OK, just a lotta rain.  I have a lotta friends in that area but
no word from them yet because the power is out.  It is now a tropical storm,
so the damage is unlikely to be severe: a lot of rain, which is actually a
good thing if it doesn't wreck stuff.

 

Notice something interesting: politicians are using this storm as proof that
global warming is causing increasing amounts of damage from storms.  But
just the opposite is true.  2022 is still a lower than average storm year.
If there is increasing dollar damage, it isn't because of more storms and
more severe storms, it is because of where the storms land, which is not a
function of global warming.  Note the chart, just updated minutes ago:

 

 



 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

 

I was cheering for 2022 to catch up to at least average, but it probably
will not.  Reasoning: Ian is now contributing almost nothing to this metric,
the ACE, accumulated cyclone energy, because it is down to a tropical storm
after crossing over land.  Hermine fizzled after one day, aaaand. there is
nothing out there currently.  One very minor tropical elation, but it is
very plausible we could finish the season with an ACE in the paltry 70s.  

 

However. 2022 will be remembered as a horrifying storm year anyway, because
Ian crossed a lot of highly populated areas, and more importantly, it made
landfall near Naples, where there is a lot of money and a lot of yachts and
a lot of private planes and a lot of dignity to be offended by proles
driving around in their internal combustion jalopies.

 

By objective measures however. 2022 is still likely to be a mild storm year,
so it fails to support the popular theories and popular proposed solutions.
The problem isn't the storms, it is our building expensive stuff with
insufficient storm protection, with the one thing that never fails to amaze
me: why in the heeeellllll do see photos of wrecked airplanes?  AIRPLANES!
Those things are fast!  Hurricanes are slow!  You just hafta get your ass
down to the local airport, load up your dog and your favorite children, get
on outta Dodge, and noooo problem, yet every time, eeeevery damn time, we
see photos of wrecked planes.

 

  Then it occurred to me: a prole can buy insurance against weather damage
to her aircraft.  Now a storm becomes an opportunity to get out from under
this particular "asset."

 

Conclusion: we are fooling ourselves.  Conclusion 2: not all of us are
fooled.

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 29 14:15:06 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 07:15:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] fake news again  was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Subject: ian came home

 

>.The eye of Ian is right over top where I cheerfully squandered my
tragically misspent youth.  .

 

 

Well, they're doing it again.  In 2016 several news agencies were caught
making storm news reports which were exaggerated: reporters in the wind,
dramatically shouting into their microphones, leaning the wrong way,
pretending to fight the ferocious wind, as pedestrians with no protective
gear stroll by in the background with no apparent effects.  As you may
recall, I got on my soapbox at the time.  

 

Technology and market forces have given us protective clothing designed for
that purpose, freely available at the local riding apparel outlet:
motorcycle gear.  

 

I went about this morning looking for news on my old stomping grounds, and
once again found "news" stories made by "reporters" with loose-fitting
windbreakers, all the better to flap in the breeze, shouting into a
microphone, all completely unnecessarily, phony as a three dollar bill.  All
those "news" agencies, and none of them have thought of just having their
reporter wear a Kevlar riding suit?  Have they no motorcycle riders anywhere
on their staff?

 

Kevlar suits are already rain and wind resistant, so no need for the
theatrical wet windbreakers, already made for having 70 mph winds, sturdy,
tight fitting, protective, microphone already built into a protective full
face helmet designed for high speed impact with bugs and bits of debris you
don't want embedded in your goddam eye, no need to shout into a microphone,
for it is easy to talk in a normal voice while going highway speed with such
an outfit.  The "news" agencies have no actual need for anything more
sophisticated than a cell phone and a motorcycle riding suit.

 

And yet. for some reason (such as dramatic news sells but calm logical news
does not) we still have these absurd faked and exaggerated "news" stories.

 

These news agencies are STILL trying to fool us.  Those of us who think of
stuff like this are not fooled.  I am betting if you are still reading down
this far, you are not fooled either.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Sep 29 15:41:25 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 16:41:25 +0100
Subject: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
 <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 29 Sept 2022 at 15:17, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Well, they?re doing it again.  In 2016 several news agencies were caught making storm news reports which were exaggerated: reporters in the wind, dramatically shouting into their microphones, leaning the wrong way, pretending to fight the ferocious wind, as pedestrians with no protective gear stroll by in the background with no apparent effects.  As you may recall, I got on my soapbox at the time.
>
> Technology and market forces have given us protective clothing designed for that purpose, freely available at the local riding apparel outlet: motorcycle gear.
>
> I went about this morning looking for news on my old stomping grounds, and once again found ?news? stories made by ?reporters? with loose-fitting windbreakers, all the better to flap in the breeze, shouting into a microphone, all completely unnecessarily, phony as a three dollar bill.  All those ?news? agencies, and none of them have thought of just having their reporter wear a Kevlar riding suit?  Have they no motorcycle riders anywhere on their staff?
>
> Kevlar suits are already rain and wind resistant, so no need for the theatrical wet windbreakers, already made for having 70 mph winds, sturdy, tight fitting, protective, microphone already built into a protective full face helmet designed for high speed impact with bugs and bits of debris you don?t want embedded in your goddam eye, no need to shout into a microphone, for it is easy to talk in a normal voice while going highway speed with such an outfit.  The ?news? agencies have no actual need for anything more sophisticated than a cell phone and a motorcycle riding suit.
>
> And yet? for some reason (such as dramatic news sells but calm logical news does not) we still have these absurd faked and exaggerated ?news? stories.
>
> These news agencies are STILL trying to fool us.  Those of us who think of stuff like this are not fooled.  I am betting if you are still reading down this far, you are not fooled either.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Hi Spike

I agree that the TV news likes dramatic pictures which attract
viewers. TV news is mostly for entertainment nowadays anyway.
Nothing better than a huge wave soaking a reporter!  :)

But think about the expenses claims. A plastic waterproof poncho is
less than ten dollars. A kevlar suit plus helmet and microphone would
likely be over 1000 dollars  No way will that get authorised!  :)


BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 29 16:00:10 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:00:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
 <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009401d8d41c$8dce7400$a96b5c00$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
...
>
>>... Kevlar suits are already rain and wind resistant, so no need for the theatrical wet windbreakers, already made for having 70 mph winds, sturdy, tight fitting, protective, microphone already built into a protective full face helmet ...
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Hi Spike

>...I agree that the TV news likes dramatic pictures which attract viewers. TV news is mostly for entertainment nowadays anyway.
Nothing better than a huge wave soaking a reporter!  :)

>...But think about the expenses claims. A plastic waterproof poncho is less than ten dollars. A kevlar suit plus helmet and microphone would likely be over 1000 dollars  No way will that get authorised!  :)


BillK

_______________________________________________


Ja.  Of course in any news agency, somebody somewhere rides and good chance somebody somewhere in that organization already has a riding suit.  All ya needs to do is introduce a once in a lifetime opportunity to make it on national news, your fifteen minutes of fame etc.  She cheerfully supplies the riding gear.

I was browsing central Florida local news stations and some fool was out there in the dripping windbreaker with a baseball cap on his head.  He tilted his head back at the (probably pre-planned moment while facing into about a 30 mph wind, and WHOOPS good luck ever finding that again, har har.

Well hell, who do you think you're fooling?  Not us.

All this brings me to the real point.  When they are doing goofy stuff like this to grab attention, are we less fooled now than we were 30 years ago before the internet?  I think we are collectively waaaay more sophisticated now.

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 29 17:27:28 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 10:27:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <009401d8d41c$8dce7400$a96b5c00$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
 <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009401d8d41c$8dce7400$a96b5c00$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <009a01d8d428$bff674d0$3fe35e70$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
...

>...All this brings me to the real point.  When they are doing goofy stuff like this to grab attention, are we less fooled now than we were 30 years ago before the internet?  I think we are collectively waaaay more sophisticated now.  spike



But what if... someone gets their fifteen minutes of fame for doing something goofy?  Note that legitimate reporting is quickly forgotten, but the silly exaggerated stuff we remember and ridicule years after the fact.  This one in the link is always good for a laugh.  The silly fool leaned away from the wind, acting like a tree instead of leaning into it, the way even a cow (a stupid COW fer cryin out loud) understands:

https://youtu.be/tocuyJ1Fu7U

spike



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Sep 29 17:37:42 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 12:37:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <009a01d8d428$bff674d0$3fe35e70$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
 <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009401d8d41c$8dce7400$a96b5c00$@rainier66.com>
 <009a01d8d428$bff674d0$3fe35e70$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYNR1wjxKYWnZArjvcWx45n9qUkO2_RMwff_sfzXEKB5w@mail.gmail.com>

Barring the man on the street, everyone you see on TV is an actor with a
script. Esp. 'reality shows' -  bill w

On Thu, Sep 29, 2022 at 12:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
> ...
>
> >...All this brings me to the real point.  When they are doing goofy stuff
> like this to grab attention, are we less fooled now than we were 30 years
> ago before the internet?  I think we are collectively waaaay more
> sophisticated now.  spike
>
>
>
> But what if... someone gets their fifteen minutes of fame for doing
> something goofy?  Note that legitimate reporting is quickly forgotten, but
> the silly exaggerated stuff we remember and ridicule years after the fact.
> This one in the link is always good for a laugh.  The silly fool leaned
> away from the wind, acting like a tree instead of leaning into it, the way
> even a cow (a stupid COW fer cryin out loud) understands:
>
> https://youtu.be/tocuyJ1Fu7U
>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Sep 29 18:25:29 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 11:25:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYNR1wjxKYWnZArjvcWx45n9qUkO2_RMwff_sfzXEKB5w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
 <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009401d8d41c$8dce7400$a96b5c00$@rainier66.com>
 <009a01d8d428$bff674d0$3fe35e70$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEYNR1wjxKYWnZArjvcWx45n9qUkO2_RMwff_sfzXEKB5w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <05cb01d8d430$db3dd190$91b974b0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home

 

>?Barring the man on the street, everyone you see on TV is an actor with a script. Esp. 'reality shows' -  bill w

 

 

Billw, this gets where I was going originally with the offshoot thread: the internet has collectively educated us.

 

Consider the famous misunderstood line by PT Barnum:  A sucker is born every minute.

 

That comment was made in a boardroom meeting where there was concern that people were growing too sophisticated in 1900 to fall for a lot of the acts they were accustomed to selling to local rubes.  Barnum assured the board that the target audience was the young people who hadn?t actually seen it.  He cynically referred to the young as suckers.  The way we use the term today is gullible people.  He meant it more literally, which also explains the ??born every minute?? comment.

 

OK well then, consider young people today.  I did community volunteer service this week assembling charge carts for a kinder thru grade 2 school, so the kids could all have computers on which they do their studies.  They have restricted internet in all these public schools.  Result: these suckers grow up fast.  They know a lot about skepticism, which is the result of internet use, at an early age.

 

When I was their age, we were urged to trust, to step out on faith.  Now the opposite is the norm, so I suppose we could even kinda make a rhyme: at an early age, we take the step of skep.  We learn to cross check, being as it is suddenly very easy to do.

 

This alone has an enormous impact on society.  We catch the phony nonsense offered to us as news.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Thu, Sep 29, 2022 at 12:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

?leaning into it, the way even a cow (a stupid COW fer cryin out loud) understands:

https://youtu.be/tocuyJ1Fu7U

spike




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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Sep 29 19:18:01 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:18:01 -0500
Subject: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <05cb01d8d430$db3dd190$91b974b0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
 <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009401d8d41c$8dce7400$a96b5c00$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CAO+xQEabSGopXMj8bhrU33J-vk7x+rzM6cK05RTrwSEmwgd-fw@mail.gmail.com>

I am just finishing Pinker's book Rationality, in which he deals with every
boner of thinking that man can make - over 200 types of cognitive errors,
for instance.

It is true that raw intelligence is highly helpful in mitigating the
effects of biases and beliefs in witches and so on, but decision-making
style shows up on regression charts too.

Teaching basic skepticism is great.  It should start in kindergarten!  They
can think - teach them to think better.  I wish I could get out there,
somewhere, and do it.  No use in preaching it to our chat group choir.

But the world is slowly getting better.  Think of how these things have
diminished:

slavery, human sacrifice, harems, foot-binding, sadistic corporal capital
punishments (public disembowelments), persecution of heretics and
dissidents, oppression of women and of religious, racial, ethnic and sexual
minorities.  In every case plotted, all are fading out.

My question for Pinker:  where do these biases come from?  Are they really
all learned?   I have my doubts.  bill w

On Thu, Sep 29, 2022 at 1:27 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *?*> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
>
>
>
> >?Barring the man on the street, everyone you see on TV is an actor with
> a script. Esp. 'reality shows' -  bill w
>
>
>
>
>
> Billw, this gets where I was going originally with the offshoot thread:
> the internet has collectively educated us.
>
>
>
> Consider the famous misunderstood line by PT Barnum:  A sucker is born
> every minute.
>
>
>
> That comment was made in a boardroom meeting where there was concern that
> people were growing too sophisticated in 1900 to fall for a lot of the acts
> they were accustomed to selling to local rubes.  Barnum assured the board
> that the target audience was the young people who hadn?t actually seen it.
> He cynically referred to the young as suckers.  The way we use the term
> today is gullible people.  He meant it more literally, which also explains
> the ??born every minute?? comment.
>
>
>
> OK well then, consider young people today.  I did community volunteer
> service this week assembling charge carts for a kinder thru grade 2 school,
> so the kids could all have computers on which they do their studies.  They
> have restricted internet in all these public schools.  Result: these
> suckers grow up fast.  They know a lot about skepticism, which is the
> result of internet use, at an early age.
>
>
>
> When I was their age, we were urged to trust, to step out on faith.  Now
> the opposite is the norm, so I suppose we could even kinda make a rhyme: at
> an early age, we take the step of skep.  We learn to cross check, being as
> it is suddenly very easy to do.
>
>
>
> This alone has an enormous impact on society.  We catch the phony nonsense
> offered to us as news.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Sep 29, 2022 at 12:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> ?leaning into it, the way even a cow (a stupid COW fer cryin out loud)
> understands:
>
> https://youtu.be/tocuyJ1Fu7U
>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Sep 29 19:36:45 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2022 20:36:45 +0100
Subject: [ExI] fake news again was: ian came home
In-Reply-To: <05cb01d8d430$db3dd190$91b974b0$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
 <006101d8d40d$e03a9a70$a0afcf50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjHEic9WgT_=Av5rUj0hcGSESW9iCB21W4gw_g+Pg4-Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <009401d8d41c$8dce7400$a96b5c00$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armjug796G4baphimAYTZ1_J3j34DynY3AA+LtjvWxS5D4w@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 29 Sept 2022 at 19:28, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Billw, this gets where I was going originally with the offshoot thread: the internet has collectively educated us.
>
<snip>
>
> OK well then, consider young people today.  I did community volunteer service this week assembling charge carts for a kinder thru grade 2 school, so the kids could all have computers on which they do their studies.  They have restricted internet in all these public schools.  Result: these suckers grow up fast.  They know a lot about skepticism, which is the result of internet use, at an early age.
>
> When I was their age, we were urged to trust, to step out on faith.  Now the opposite is the norm, so I suppose we could even kinda make a rhyme: at an early age, we take the step of skep.  We learn to cross check, being as it is suddenly very easy to do.
>
> This alone has an enormous impact on society.  We catch the phony nonsense offered to us as news.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Sorry to disagree, BUT.....  the 'news' system floods the public with
propaganda and the approved point of view. If you disagree, you get
'cancelled' and treated like a leper by the majority. On social media,
like Twitter, governments around the world run teams of thousands who
post in support of their government and attack unapproved views.
Thousands of bots can fake popularity and support of ideas. The US
public is split into two parts. Half believe the current government
'news', and half believe the opposite.

The internet is full of lies and prejudice.  The young must find it
very difficult to thread a path through all the rubbish.
You may be an aged sage, full of the wisdom of years, so you can
withstand the propaganda, but it is a mistake to assume that everyone
else is like you.


BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Sep 30 16:35:42 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2022 09:35:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] just for fun on a friday morning: rap and unbearable
 reflection
In-Reply-To: <002101d8d4e7$b7f302c0$27d90840$@rainier66.com>
References: <002101d8d4e7$b7f302c0$27d90840$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <001901d8d4ea$aeee53c0$0ccafb40$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

I am told this is the earliest known rap recording.  Dang these guys are
good:

 

https://youtu.be/3YTDLHdfFSQ

 

 

 

 

Likely you have seen this one by now, as it has been making the rounds:

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1545815629596397580

 

This video gives me half a mind to set up a mirror somewhere where I might
repeat the experiment for a reason: I don't know if bears will become
self-aware.  Some dogs recognize themselves in a mirror and others do not.
Most cats don't react at all to a mirror, but it isn't clear if that means
they don't recognize the image as a cat or if they know they are looking at
themselves and don't care.  A house dog will eventually figure it out, as
chimps will and human babies do.  My son was aged 5 months when he realized
he was looking at himself and dad in the mirror:

 



 

OK so what about bears?  This one in the video wrecked the mirror, but
suppose we set it up again (after he leaves (well after.))  Will he try to
fight it again?  Or did he learn anything by making a fool of himself?  Does
he get the notion of making a fool of himself?  Some dogs seem to get it
when they have been fooled, and the humans are laughing at him.  They show
something like embarrassment (some do.)  

 

spike

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From max at maxmore.com  Fri Sep 30 17:36:38 2022
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2022 17:36:38 +0000
Subject: [ExI] ian came home
In-Reply-To: <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <BYAPR06MB5239334C26C458B9EBA80CBEA0569@BYAPR06MB5239.namprd06.prod.outlook.com>

The increased damage is indeed caused by there being more people in affected areas rather than because storms are worse. As you noted, they are not. One factor to keep in mind: More people are in harm's way because the government uses our tax dollars to subsidize flood insurance.
________________________________
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> on behalf of spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2022 6:48 AM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
Subject: [ExI] ian came home






The eye of Ian is right over top where I cheerfully squandered my tragically misspent youth.  My mother I already know is OK because of the elevation of her house and the trees were just trimmed last summer.  By brother is at elevation 8 ft, so he might have some flooding.  We have heard from John Clark: he is OK, just a lotta rain.  I have a lotta friends in that area but no word from them yet because the power is out.  It is now a tropical storm, so the damage is unlikely to be severe: a lot of rain, which is actually a good thing if it doesn't wreck stuff.



Notice something interesting: politicians are using this storm as proof that global warming is causing increasing amounts of damage from storms.  But just the opposite is true.  2022 is still a lower than average storm year.  If there is increasing dollar damage, it isn't because of more storms and more severe storms, it is because of where the storms land, which is not a function of global warming.  Note the chart, just updated minutes ago:





[cid:image002.jpg at 01D8D3CF.8D57EB70]



http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic



I was cheering for 2022 to catch up to at least average, but it probably will not.  Reasoning: Ian is now contributing almost nothing to this metric, the ACE, accumulated cyclone energy, because it is down to a tropical storm after crossing over land.  Hermine fizzled after one day, aaaand? there is nothing out there currently.  One very minor tropical elation, but it is very plausible we could finish the season with an ACE in the paltry 70s.



However? 2022 will be remembered as a horrifying storm year anyway, because Ian crossed a lot of highly populated areas, and more importantly, it made landfall near Naples, where there is a lot of money and a lot of yachts and a lot of private planes and a lot of dignity to be offended by proles driving around in their internal combustion jalopies.



By objective measures however? 2022 is still likely to be a mild storm year, so it fails to support the popular theories and popular proposed solutions.  The problem isn?t the storms, it is our building expensive stuff with insufficient storm protection, with the one thing that never fails to amaze me: why in the heeeellllll do see photos of wrecked airplanes?  AIRPLANES!  Those things are fast!  Hurricanes are slow!  You just hafta get your ass down to the local airport, load up your dog and your favorite children, get on outta Dodge, and noooo problem, yet every time, eeeevery damn time, we see photos of wrecked planes.



[cid:image004.jpg at 01D8D3CF.8D57EB70]  Then it occurred to me: a prole can buy insurance against weather damage to her aircraft.  Now a storm becomes an opportunity to get out from under this particular ?asset.?



Conclusion: we are fooling ourselves.  Conclusion 2: not all of us are fooled.



spike
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Sep 30 17:56:35 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2022 10:56:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] ian came home
In-Reply-To: <BYAPR06MB5239334C26C458B9EBA80CBEA0569@BYAPR06MB5239.namprd06.prod.outlook.com>
References: <CAL_armjxos+hPYV0-+xau_g-6OPz1WjNfx1nyf7M6kc-5RYZBw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004d01d8d40a$3a6293d0$af27bb70$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <000d01d8d4f5$fbf17110$f3d45330$@rainier66.com>

 

  _____  

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
<mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> > on behalf of spike jones
via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
<mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> >
.

 

>>.Notice something interesting: politicians are using this storm as proof
that global warming is causing increasing amounts of damage from storms.
But just the opposite is true.  2022 is still a lower than average storm
year.spike

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of 
Subject: Re: [ExI] ian came home

 

>.The increased damage is indeed caused by there being more people in
affected areas rather than because storms are worse. As you noted, they are
not. One factor to keep in mind: More people are in harm's way because the
government uses our tax dollars to subsidize flood insurance. Max

 

 

Ja.  If you ask yanks what was the worst storm of 2022, they will answer in
unison IAN!  But Fiona was a waaaaay bigger storm, half again more energy.
Most people never heard of it because it didn't cause much damage.  The
biggest known storms are nothingburgers if they never encounter land.  We
can imagine dolphins jumping out of the water into 160 mph winds and
wondering whaaaaat in the heeeellllll just happened, but nobody cares about
them.  We are deplorably homocentric!  We should care about confused
dolphins.

 

But Max is right.  We are creating a grand illusion with our insurance
policies and FEMA.

 

spike 

 

 

 

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