[ExI] AGI could be arriving sooner than expected

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Thu Sep 29 10:54:16 UTC 2022

Long article on Less Wrong website.

Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
by porby   28th Sep 2022     33 comments (so far)

I think there is little time left before someone builds AGI (median ~2030).
Once upon a time, I didn't think this.
This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and
insights that collapsed my estimates.

The core ideas are as follows:

1. We've already captured way too much of intelligence with way too
little effort.
2. Everything points towards us capturing way more of intelligence
with very little additional effort.
3. Trying to create a self-consistent worldview that handles all
available evidence seems to force very weird conclusions.

Looking at the chaos happening around the world, I think we need AGI
as soon as possible to sort the mess out.


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