[ExI] AI enhancing / replacing human abilities

[William Flynn Wallace]

I read of stock market people who have a great year, advertise that fact,
get lots of new buyers, and then experience regression to the mean.

Perhaps successful algorithms just don't last long.

I think my question was based on the assumption that the successful AI was
available to everyone. What would happen then?  bill w

On Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 5:25 PM Gadersd via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> What if an AI were developed that could accurately predict the
> stock market?
>
>
> Already been done. James Simons is a math PhD turned quant who started a
> hedge fund specializing in algorithmic trading. He made a pile of money for
> himself and his clients and eventually closed the hedge fund to outside
> investors as the technology can only scale to handle so much money at a
> time. In this case the fund became “secret” to preserve its profitability
> for the owner and his buddies.
>
> Beating the stock market and being open are fundamentally mutually
> exclusive. More of one implies less of the other.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies
>
> On Apr 4, 2023, at 6:07 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> What if an AI were developed that could accurately predict the
> stock market?  I suspect that buyers and sellers would intentionally make
> the predictions wrong if they were known.  If a person could make one but
> keep it a secret he would become very rich.  Or not?  bill w
>
> On Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 4:59 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> On Tue, 4 Apr 2023 at 21:56, Gadersd via extropy-chat
>> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> >
>> > I concur. In an adversarial environment it is almost never optimal from
>> the perspective of one group to halt progress if the others cannot be
>> prevented from continuing.
>> >
>> > The AI safety obsession is quite moot as any malicious organization
>> with significant capital can develop and deploy its own AI. AI safety can
>> only achieve the goal of preventing low-capital individuals from using AI
>> for malicious reasons for a time until the technology becomes cheap enough
>> for anyone to develop powerful AI.
>> >
>> > I am not sure how much good prolonging the eventual ability for any
>> individual to use AI for harm will do. We will have to face this reality
>> eventually. Perhaps a case can be made for prolonging individual AI-powered
>> efficacy until we have the public safety mechanisms in place to deal with
>> it.
>> >
>> > In any case this only applies to little individuals. China and others
>> will have their way with AI.
>> > _______________________________________________
>>
>>
>> Interesting thought, that 'friendly' AI means malicious use by the human
>> owners.
>>
>> In the past, the main worry was AI running amok and destroying
>> humanity. So the 'friendly' AI design was developed to try to ensure
>> that humanity would be safe from AI.
>> But how can we protect humanity from humanity?
>>
>> Nations and corporations will be running the powerful AGI machines,
>> controlling economies and war machines.
>> Personal AI will probably have to be much less capable
>> in order to run on smartphones and laptops.
>> But there will be plenty to keep the population amused.  :)
>>
>> BillK
>>
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