[ExI] AI enhancing / replacing human abilities

[William Flynn Wallace]

On Wed, Apr 5, 2023 at 10:01 AM Gadersd via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Perhaps successful algorithms just don't last long.
>
>
> They can if kept secret. A good rule of thumb is if the fund/algorithm is
> public then it is no better than passive investing.
>
> I think my question was based on the assumption that the successful AI was
> available to everyone. What would happen then?
>
>
> Then the market would self-correct and the AI would stop trading well.
>

Then the AI changes its algorithm - bill w

>
> On Apr 5, 2023, at 10:25 AM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> I read of stock market people who have a great year, advertise that fact,
> get lots of new buyers, and then experience regression to the mean.
>
> Perhaps successful algorithms just don't last long.
>
> I think my question was based on the assumption that the successful AI was
> available to everyone. What would happen then?  bill w
>
> On Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 5:25 PM Gadersd via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> What if an AI were developed that could accurately predict the
>> stock market?
>>
>>
>> Already been done. James Simons is a math PhD turned quant who started a
>> hedge fund specializing in algorithmic trading. He made a pile of money for
>> himself and his clients and eventually closed the hedge fund to outside
>> investors as the technology can only scale to handle so much money at a
>> time. In this case the fund became “secret” to preserve its profitability
>> for the owner and his buddies.
>>
>> Beating the stock market and being open are fundamentally mutually
>> exclusive. More of one implies less of the other.
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies
>>
>> On Apr 4, 2023, at 6:07 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> What if an AI were developed that could accurately predict the
>> stock market?  I suspect that buyers and sellers would intentionally make
>> the predictions wrong if they were known.  If a person could make one but
>> keep it a secret he would become very rich.  Or not?  bill w
>>
>> On Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 4:59 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>>> On Tue, 4 Apr 2023 at 21:56, Gadersd via extropy-chat
>>> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>> >
>>> > I concur. In an adversarial environment it is almost never optimal
>>> from the perspective of one group to halt progress if the others cannot be
>>> prevented from continuing.
>>> >
>>> > The AI safety obsession is quite moot as any malicious organization
>>> with significant capital can develop and deploy its own AI. AI safety can
>>> only achieve the goal of preventing low-capital individuals from using AI
>>> for malicious reasons for a time until the technology becomes cheap enough
>>> for anyone to develop powerful AI.
>>> >
>>> > I am not sure how much good prolonging the eventual ability for any
>>> individual to use AI for harm will do. We will have to face this reality
>>> eventually. Perhaps a case can be made for prolonging individual AI-powered
>>> efficacy until we have the public safety mechanisms in place to deal with
>>> it.
>>> >
>>> > In any case this only applies to little individuals. China and others
>>> will have their way with AI.
>>> > _______________________________________________
>>>
>>>
>>> Interesting thought, that 'friendly' AI means malicious use by the human
>>> owners.
>>>
>>> In the past, the main worry was AI running amok and destroying
>>> humanity. So the 'friendly' AI design was developed to try to ensure
>>> that humanity would be safe from AI.
>>> But how can we protect humanity from humanity?
>>>
>>> Nations and corporations will be running the powerful AGI machines,
>>> controlling economies and war machines.
>>> Personal AI will probably have to be much less capable
>>> in order to run on smartphones and laptops.
>>> But there will be plenty to keep the population amused.  :)
>>>
>>> BillK
>>>
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