[ExI] On the speed of self-improvement

[William Flynn Wallace]

I think that how much trouble an AI can create depends solely on what it is
hooked up to.  I would not let one run anything other than really trivial
things .  Take their recommendations but enable them yourself.  bill w

On Fri, May 12, 2023 at 12:14 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Fri, 12 May 2023 at 17:37, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > On Fri, May 12, 2023, 9:10 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >>
> >> Just as the basic chess-playing computers learn by playing millions of
> >> test games in a very brief interval of time, the AGI will change its
> >> own programming in what will appear to humans to be the blink of an
> >> eye. By the time humans know something unexpected is happening it will
> >> be too late.
> >
> >
> > This does not follow.  The chess playing programs took time to improve.
> There exist today experiments in self-optimizing AIs.  If they were
> inherently of infinite speed (or would quickly achieve this from
> exponential improvement), they would have already demonstrated this.
> >
> > Many of the fears about AGI seem to stem from fears of infinities like
> this.  "Some day, the very first thing of this kind shall appear and it
> will immediately do things before humans can react."  The data does not
> make this assertion likely, let alone guaranteed.
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> Ohhh, you're one of these crazy optimist types!  :)
> It is not fear, to say just be careful. Caution required!
>
> I asked Bard -
> Could a self-optimising AI improve faster than humans can react?
>
> Bard replied -
> Yes, a self-optimizing AI could improve faster than humans can react.
> This is because AI can learn and improve at an exponential rate, while
> humans are limited by our biological capabilities. For example, AI can
> process and analyze vast amounts of data in a fraction of the time it
> takes a human to do so. This allows AI to identify patterns and make
> connections that humans would never be able to see. Additionally, AI
> can experiment and try new things without fear of failure. This allows
> AI to learn and improve much faster than humans, who are often
> hesitant to take risks.
>
> As a result of these factors, it is possible that a self-optimizing AI
> could eventually surpass human intelligence. This could have a
> profound impact on society, as AI could potentially solve some of the
> world's most pressing problems. However, it is important to remember
> that AI is still in its early stages of development. It is possible
> that AI could pose a threat to humanity if it is not carefully
> controlled. It is therefore important to develop ethical guidelines
> for the development and use of AI.
> ------------------
>
> So charging ahead to develop AGI as fast as possible means facing
> risks that we don't yet know about.
>
>
>
> BillK
>
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