[ExI] The “great gate in history” of Strauss and Howe

[BillK]

THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE
WHAT THE SEASONS OF HISTORY TELL US ABOUT HOW AND WHEN THIS CRISIS WILL END
by Neil Howe ‧ RELEASE DATE: July 18, 2023

A fascinating work of global history and look to the future
Review here:
<
https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/neil-howe/the-fourth-turning-is-here/
>
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I asked an AI for an opinion as well -

*The Fourth Turning Is Here: Understanding the Current Historical Cycle and
Its Implications*

Straightforwardly answering the question of whether or not the fourth
turning is here requires a deep understanding of the concept of the Fourth
Turning and its application to current events. To provide a comprehensive
answer, we will delve into the theory of the Fourth Turning, its historical
context, and the evidence supporting the idea that we are currently in the
midst of a Fourth Turning.

The Fourth Turning, a concept introduced by William Strauss and Neil Howe
in their book "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy," is a recurring
cycle of historical events that unfold every 80-100 years. This cycle is
characterized by four distinct turning points, each with its own unique
characteristics and impact on society. The four turnings are:

1. *High*: A period of optimism, growth, and conformity, marked by a strong
sense of national unity and collective purpose. Examples of high turnings
include the post-World War II era and the late 19th century.
2. *Awakening*: A period of questioning authority, challenging the status
quo, and seeking new experiences and perspectives. Examples of awakenings
include the 1960s and the early 19th century.
3. *Unraveling*: A period of decline and disillusionment, marked by a loss
of faith in institutions and social norms. Examples of unravelings include
the 1920s and the late 18th century.
4. *Crisis*: A period of upheaval and transformation, marked by a complete
breakdown of the old order and the emergence of a new one. Examples of
crises include the Great Depression and the American Revolution.

According to Strauss and Howe, we are currently in the early stages of a
Fourth Turning, which began around 2008 and is expected to last until
around 2030. This turning is characterized by an unraveling of the social
and economic order, followed by a crisis that will lead to the emergence of
a new order.

So, is the fourth turning here? The answer is yes, and the evidence
supporting this claim is multifaceted.

Firstly, the current era is marked by a growing sense of disillusionment
with institutions and social norms, which is a hallmark of an unraveling.
This disillusionment is evident in the rising levels of political
polarization, the decline of trust in the media and government, and the
growing popularity of anti-establishment movements.

Secondly, the current era is characterized by a series of crises, including
the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and economic inequality. These
crises are symptomatic of the unraveling phase of the Fourth Turning and
are likely to continue and intensify in the coming years.

Thirdly, the current era is marked by a growing sense of nationalism and
xenophobia, which is a hallmark of the awakening phase of the Fourth
Turning. This is evident in the rise of populist movements and the
increasing tensions between nations.

Finally, the current era is characterized by a growing sense of
generational conflict, which is a hallmark of the Fourth Turning. This is
evident in the rising levels of student debt, the decline of the
traditional family, and the growing divide between the old and the young.

In conclusion, the fourth turning is here, and the evidence supporting this
claim is multifaceted. The current era is marked by a growing sense of
disillusionment, a series of crises, a growing sense of nationalism and
xenophobia, and a growing sense of generational conflict. Understanding the
Fourth Turning and its implications can help us navigate the challenges and
opportunities of the current era and prepare for the transformative changes
that are to come.
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Hmmm.  Food for thought......

BillK
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