[ExI] [Extropolis] NYTimes.com: Artificial Intelligence Gives Weather Forecasters a New Edge

[Keith Henson]

BTW, there is another bit to the extended clinic seed story.

https://htyp.org/mw/index.php?title=Standard_gauge&action=info

Keith

On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 7:41 PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 5:17 PM Will Steinberg <steinberg.will at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Well no it still thinks much much faster than we do at any particular locus.
>
> Right.  The article analyses a million-to-one subjective speed-up
> community with a subjective communication delay about the same as we
> have currently.  This shrinks the community size to 300 meters.
>
> > It may be slower for information to travel from one end to another but I’m sure they will figure out what can and can’t wait and batch signal.  Also maybe they’ll just figure out how to get around it anyway.
>
> I don't think they have (and the universe may not permit it) FTL.  If
> they did, they would be here.
>
> How much power do they have?  luminosity is 4.68, so at 1 au 6388
> W/m^2, this power is divided by
> 7.8^2 to get 105 W/m^2,  ~0.1 GW/square km.  At one alien per square
> meter, they would have about the same power available as a human
> brain, and at a first guess, they would have about the same cycle rate
> (around 200 HZ)  . That might give them a similar subjective sense of
> time, so they can probably tolerate about one sec delay in
> communications.  (The communication and shared infrastructure might
> take from one to ten times as much hardware and computation.)
>
> How many aliens are we talking about?  The area of Tabby's star is D/2
> squared x pi.  22% blocked would be
> 208 771 274 655 square km, 409 times the area of the earth.  At a
> million uploaded aliens per square km, 209 x 10^15.  Our world
> population is around 10^10, so only ~10,000 times larger.  As a
> square, 456914. km on one side.  Light speed signal delay edge to edge
> is about 1.5 seconds.  The structure (if it is that) is in thermal
> equilibrium at 65 K.  That requires about 50 times as much radiator
> area as light interception, so I would expect it to be a deep V shape
> with the radiators facing local north and south.
>
> I may be entirely wrong and there could be a natural explanation for
> this patch of stars.  I hope so, we don't need the competition.  On
> the other hand, the physics makes sense and we may be looking at our
> own fate in a few thousand years (or perhaps less).
>
> Keith
>
>
> > @Stuart: I believe money is a physical representation of consciousness/willpower
> >
> > On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 8:11 PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 4:26 PM Will Steinberg <steinberg.will at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >
> >> > It will *literally* have physical limits.
> >>
> >> One of those is the speed of light.  I think the shadows we see at
> >> Tabby's Star are data center located in the middle of the
> >> "computational zone."  From the timing of the light dips, we might be
> >> looking at a data center over 400 times the area of the Earth out at
> >> 7AU and operating at 65K.  Edge to edge about 2.5 light seconds.
> >>
> >> > They may be large, but people will always expand to the borders.
> >>
> >> That's a reasonable assumption and the fact that 24 stars out in that
> >> direction show similar light dips might indicate a spreading alien
> >> civilization.  That is what makes me think we are seeing the works of
> >> aliens.
> >>
> >> >  You can’t comprehend reaching those limits, but a being one trillion+ times as complex as you can.  The difference between a single celled organism and a human, except far greater differences in magnitude.  What comprises a self will always expand to take advantage of resources, which ARE finite.
> >>
> >> Maybe.  I have written on this subject.  If you are experiencing time
> >> faster, resources at Neptune or even the far side of Earth's orbit are
> >> not very useful.
> >> https://hplusmagazine.com/2012/04/12/transhumanism-and-the-human-expansion-into-space-a-conflict-with-physics/
> >>
> >> > A jupiter brain isn’t infinitely large.  It is jupiter-sized.
> >>
> >> And the speed of light limits makes it think much slower than we do.
> >>
> >> Keith
> >> >
> >> > On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 7:21 PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 1:21 PM Will Steinberg <steinberg.will at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >> >
> >> >> > At some point it will get old and people will want something new and scarce, imo.
> >> >>
> >> >> If you are living as an upload, can you think of anything that would
> >> >> be scarce?  New is expected, but there is no reason for "things" to be
> >> >> limited.  Think of a world entirely of open source.  Is that scarce?
> >> >>
> >> >> Keith
> >> >>
> >> >> > On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 4:18 PM Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> "There is no such thing as magic creation machines. "
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> If you are uploaded, you can have a simulation of anything you want at
> >> >> >> essentially no cost beyond whatever it takes to run an upload.  That's
> >> >> >> close to a "magic creation machine."
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> Keith
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 9:11 AM Will Steinberg <steinberg.will at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > Ok now that’s an insanely facile oversimplification.  There is no such thing as magic creation machines.  Everything uses resources, and whether it’s rare elements, electricity, computing power, or access to the technology itself, uneven distribution of resources is not going to miraculously disappear.
> >> >> >> >
> >> >> >> > On Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 6:21 AM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> On Wed, Jul 31, 2024 at 8:33 PM Stuart LaForge <stuart.laforge at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>> > if robust quantum computing comes of age, then traditional banks are just as dead as bitcoin.
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> Bitcoin couldn't exist without modern encryption techniques, but for many centuries banks have gotten along just fine without it. And there's something else to consider, cryptocurrency is rapidly running out of time to be relevant. Once Drexler style nanotechnology is developed then, in just a few minutes, you'll be able to make anything you want yourself. That would even be true for real estate, after all the surface of a planet is not the only place where space exists. And once you reach that point what use would you have for money?
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >> John K Clark
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> >>>
> >> >> >> >>>
> >> >> >> >>> On Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 4:11:23 PM UTC-7 johnk... at gmail.com wrote:
> >> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >> >>>> On Wed, Jul 31, 2024 at 6:40 PM Stuart LaForge <stuart.... at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >> >>>>> > Of course all this is premised on P<>NP.
> >> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >> >>>> Most likely P≠ NP (although I wouldn't bet my life on it, mathematicians have been surprised before) but even so Bitcoin would still be dead if somebody makes a Quantum Computer that has about 1500 logical Qubits. A machine like that could break the elliptical encryption used by bitcoin in just a few minutes even if P≠ NP.
> >> >> >> >>>>
> >> >> >> >>>> John K Clark
> >> >> >> >>>>
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